North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down, corn increases

Published: March 22, 2023

WINNIPEG – After hitting a 21-month low on Tuesday, the ICE Futures canola market extended its losses further on Wednesday.

The Chicago soy complex retreated yet again, while European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were also lower. Crude oil gained more than US$1 per barrel due to declining United States stockpiles and the Federal Reserve’s announcement it will raise its key interest rates by one-quarter of a point.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up less than one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Tuesday’s close.

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About 48,642 canola contracts were traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 34,885 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 30,260 of the contracts traded.

CORN was back in positive territory on Wednesday for the sixth time in seven sessions.

According to data from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week ended March 14, money managers were net sellers of more than 75,000 corn futures contracts, establishing a net short of nearly 60,000, corn’s first bearish stance since August 2020.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that ethanol producers averaged 997,000 barrels of output per day for the week ended March 17, the lowest since January. Stocks declined by 206,000 barrels to 26.188 million.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a sale of 178,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to China this morning, while Chinese corn prices fell to a three-month low overnight.

Brazilian firm Agroconsult cut its production estimate for the country’s corn crop by five million tonnes to 125 million due to delayed plantings for its safrinha crop.

The May SOYBEAN contract made another double-digit drop.

Agroconsult raised its production estimate for Brazil’s soybeans by two million tonnes to a record 155 million. The firm also predicts the country will export 96 million tonnes this marketing year.

The European Union is reporting that season-to-date soybean imports have totalled 8.45 million tonnes as of March 19, down nearly 15 per cent from last year.

Meanwhile, Chinese soybean prices on the Dalian exchange fell to their lowest point in seven months.

The U.S. WHEAT futures were all in the red with the biggest drop found in Chicago wheat.

Soft red wheat growing areas in the U.S. have received much-needed precipitation this week. However, dryness persists in the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas hard red wheat growing areas.

China will auction off 140,000 tonnes of wheat from its state reserves next week.

Russian grain production is forecast to be 19 per cent lower in 2023-24 with 82.6 million tonnes of wheat output according to UkrAgroConsult.

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