North American Grain/Oilseed review: Canola continues downward slide

Published: April 16, 2024

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

 

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market was continued to slide lower on Tuesday, hitting its weakest levels in over a month as speculative selling pressure and a lack of significant end user demand weighed on values.

Losses in outside markets contributed to the declines, with Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures all lower on the day.

While a weaker tone in the Canadian dollar helped underpin domestic crush margins, a trader said demand from exporters remained lacklustre. He noted that the widening discount for the old crop July contract compared to the new crop November futures was a sign of the lack of nearby demand.

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Forecasts calling for welcome precipitation across dry areas of Western Canada over the next week were also bearish.

There were an estimated 80,856 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 70,724 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 49,380 of the contracts traded.

 

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Tuesday, with losses in soyoil and meal weighing on values.

Export competition from Brazil contributed to the weakness, with the soybean harvest reportedly over 80 per cent complete. However, heavy rains in Argentina were expected to cause delays there.

Farmers in the United States have seeded three percent of this year’s soybean crop, according to the latest weekly progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That was up from one per cent at this time a year ago.

Uncertainty in the global energy markets, as participants continue to watch for any developments on the situation between Israel and Iran, kept some caution in the agricultural futures.

 

CORN was down in sympathy with soybeans. Corn planting in the U.S. was at six per cent complete in the latest report, up slightly from the five per cent average for this time of year.

Rains in the Midwestern forecasts will likely cause some delays over the next week but will be beneficial for crops in the long run.

 

WHEAT was mixed, with losses in Chicago soft wheat but a steady to firmer tone in the hard red wheats.

U.S. winter wheat condition ratings dipped one point in the good-to-excellent category in the latest weekly report, now at 55 per cent, with 11 percent of the crop headed.

Spring wheat seeding came in at seven per cent complete, which compares with the six per cent average for this time of year. Seeding was farthest along in Washington, at 42 per cent complete. That was in line with the five-year average of 40 per cent, but well ahead of 22 per cent at the same time in 2023.

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