ICE Canada Morning Comment: StatCan cuts canola estimate

Reductions below trade expectations

Published: December 2, 2022

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were higher on Friday morning, following the release of Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) production report.

The federal agency cut canola production for 2022 by almost one million tonnes from it’s September estimate of nearly 19.1 million tonnes. The 18.17 million tonnes came in below most trade projections. Wheat as well saw reductions with all wheat down almost 880,000 tonnes at 33.82 million.

There has been some consternation in the market as several analysts and traders have taken issues with StatCan’s satellite modeling this summer.

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Losses in comparable oils were tempering further increases in canola. There were declines in the Chicago soy complex, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Global crude prices were dipping, which added a little bit more pressure on vegetable oils.

The Canadian dollar was easing back on Friday morning as the United States dollar retook some of the ground it lost yesterday. The loonie slipped to 74.30 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 74.44.

About 8,150 contracts had traded as of 8:36 CST.

Prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne at 8:36 CST:

                          Price      Change

Canola            Jan     823.70     up  8.90                

                  Mar     820.00     up  7.20                

                  May     824.20     up  7.60

                  Jul     826.70     up  6.30

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