MarketsFarm — As the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its estimate for total world grain production in 2023-24, its forecast on corn and soybeans were increased as well. Meanwhile, production estimates for wheat were held steady.
The London-based IGC issued its latest supply and demand report on Thursday.
World grain production was bumped up by eight million tonnes from the IGC’s March report, bringing it to 2.29 billion tonnes. That’s 39 million tonnes more than where the council pegged the previous year’s output. Increases in corn and soybean production, led by Brazil, resulted in the IGC raising its call.
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The global grain trade was cut by four million tonnes in April at 407 million, which is slightly below that in 2022-23. Overall consumption was raised five million tonnes from March at 2.29 billion, which is 29 million more than in 2022-23. However, ending stocks inched up one million tonnes from last month at 581 million. That’s also three million more than in the previous marketing year.
World corn production was boosted six million tonnes by the IGC, bringing its forecast for 2023-24 to 1.21 billion tonnes. That’s an increase of 58 million tonnes from output in 2022-23. While trade is expected to remain relatively stable at 172 million tonnes, consumption was increased. The IGC estimated the latter will climb to 1.2 billion tonnes, four million more than last month’s call and 29 million more than in 2022-23. That also translated to a larger carryover, with the council’s April forecast at 264 million tonnes — up three million from March and six million from 2022-23.
Increases in soybeans were smaller than those in corn, with a two million-tonne uptick in total world production for 2023-24 at 401 million tonnes, rising two million from the IGC’s March report. Compared to 2022-23 that would be a 31 million-tonne gain. Trade inched up one million tonnes from March at 174 million tonnes, six million more than in 2022-23. Consumption as well added one million tonnes at 389 million, besting last year by 23 million tonnes. The carryout tacked on four million tonnes with April at 60 million, 11 million more than 2022-23.
Global wheat production for 2023-24 remained at 787 million tonnes from March to April, which is 16 million less than in 2022-23. The IGC trimmed trade by two million tonnes from month to month at 193 million. Also, it’s five million tonnes less than in 2022-23. There’s virtually no change in total consumption at 794 million tonnes from last year. Ending stocks slip two million tonnes from last month at 277 million, pushing it to seven million less than in 2022-23.
The IGC’s next round of estimates is scheduled for May 18.
