The strong area of low pressure that the weather models have been forecasting to impact the eastern half of the Prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday is starting to take shape. The latest model runs show the low pushing northward into western Manitoba early on Tuesday morning and then moving off toward northwestern Ontario by late Wednesday. This low will bring widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms to most of southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan starting Tuesday morning.
Read Also
Alberta crop conditions improve: report
Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.
The heaviest band of rainfall is forecasted to fall from southeastern Saskatchewan, northeastward into the northern Interlake region of Manitoba. Current indications are that some areas may see upward of 50 mm. Further to the east, amounts look to be in the 10 mm range.
There are some indications that a second impulse of moisture will move northward late on Wednesday, which may impact southeastern Manitoba with up to 25 mm of rain. The exact placement of this moisture is still uncertain currently. Temperatures with this system will be a little tricky. Areas on the southern and eastern side of the low will be mild, despite the cloud cover with daytime highs in the upper teens to around 20 C. Further west, cool air will be pulled in on the back side of the low, dropping daytime highs down into the 10 to 14 C range. These cooler temperatures will move eastward on Wednesday.
A third impulse is then forecasted to move southeastward behind the parent low late Wednesday and into Thursday, bringing more wet, windy weather to this same region. The system will also usher in the coldest air of the season with widespread frost possible later in the week.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
