MarketsFarm — There were only a handful of major changes in the monthly supply and demand report released Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
“I thought it was neutral to a little bit friendly,” said Terry Reilly, grains analyst with Futures International in Chicago.
Perhaps most notable were the ending stocks for new-crop soybeans and corn. For the June report, USDA cut the corn carryover by 9.2 per cent from May, bringing it to 31.36 million tonnes. The carryout for soybeans was chopped 9.7 per cent at 7.61 million tonnes. Meanwhile, that for new-crop wheat was bumped up 1.25 per cent, at 17.05 million tonnes, a figure Reilly considered neutral on the commodity.
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The elements that caught the analyst’s eye were the changes the department made to U.S. soyoil. In May, USDA pegged old-crop soyoil for food, feed and other industrial use at 14.385 million lbs., imports were 450 million, and exports at 1.73 billion.
“The USDA unexpectedly took down the food usage for the [2021-22] crop year by 100 million lbs. That threw the trade off a little bit, but that was offset by taking the imports down 50 million lbs. and exports up by 75 million,” Reilly said
In terms of global wheat production, USDA chopped its estimate on India’s new-crop wheat production by 2.5 million tonnes.
“That was pretty much expected. They’re still a little aggressive at 106 million tonnes,” Reilly said, noting future USDA reports will likely continuing to push it lower.
India’s wheat carryout edged up 0.7 per cent at 16.49 million tonnes, according to USDA. Global ending stocks were increased 0.6 per cent at 266.85 million tonnes.
In the meantime, there were a few alterations for wheat production in Russia and Ukraine, despite their ongoing war. USDA added another million tonnes to Russian production, now at 81 million, and kept Ukraine’s coming harvest at 21.5 million. However, the latter is well down from the 33.01 million tonnes taken off Ukrainian fields in 2021-22. As for the carryover for wheat, Russia remained at 11.14 million tonnes and Ukraine holding at 6.01 million.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
