MarketsFarm — Ahead of the April supply and demand (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday, trader Ryan Ettner of Allendale Inc. at McHenry, Ill. said he’s expecting carryovers for corn and soybeans to come in below March’s estimates.
Ettner has also pegged the wheat carryout to be a little bit higher.
“Exports have been a little bit better for corn and beans. Also for corn, you have ethanol [production] running slightly above USDA numbers,” he said.
The average trade guess put the April corn carryover at 1.415 billion bushels, compared to 1.44 billion in the March USDA report. That for soybeans was set at 262 million bushels, down from the 285 million last month. However, both would still be higher than the ending stocks a year ago, with corn at 1.235 billion bushels and soybeans at 257 million.
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Those higher exports are at least partially based on the effects of the war in Ukraine. International economic sanctions against Russia have cut into its grain exports and Ukraine’s ports have been seized or blockaded by Russian forces.
As for wheat, the average market expectation for ending stocks is 656 million bushels, a shade more than the 653 million in March. Despite that projected increase to come out on Friday, it’s well below the wheat carryover of 845 million bushels in the April 2021 report.
Ettner said it’s impossible to get an accurate bead on to what the market could predict for the WASDE report.
“It’s all dependent on those two sides shaking hands tomorrow or a year from tomorrow. That changes your numbers in a giant way,” he said.
With that in mind, trade expectations for the world carryovers put corn at an average of 300.91 million tonnes, down from the 300.97 million last month. Soybeans are to drop from 89.96 million tonnes to 88.79 million, while wheat is to slip from 281.51 million tonnes to 281.41 million.
USDA will issue its world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Friday at 11 a.m. CT.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
