Soybeans

U.S. soybean yields were estimated at 53.0 bushels per acre, which compares with the September estimate of 53.5 bu./ac. and was down slightly from average pre-report trade estimates around 53.1 bu./ac. Total soybean production at 4.253 billion bushels compares with 4.651 billion bushels in September and 4.744 billion bushels a year ago.

Soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 were forecast at 290 million bushels, which was down by 10 million from the September estimate.

Corn

Corn yields were lowered to 186.0 bu./ac. from 186.7 bu./ac. in September. Average trade estimates around 184.0 bu./ac. had called for a larger cut to yields and the immediate market reaction was bearish.

U.S. corn production at 16.752 billion bushels was down by 62 million from September but still about 200 million bushels above average trade estimates.

Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26 were raised to 2.154 billion bushels, from 2.110 billion in September.

World carryout

Global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 were estimated at 281.24 million tonnes by the USDA, which was down from 281.40 million in September and about 1.5 million tonnes below average trade estimates.

World soybean ending stocks were down by two million tonnes from September at 121.99 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks, at 271.43 million tonnes, were up by 7.37 million tonnes from September and roughly five million tonnes above average trade estimates.

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Sabourin was speaking to an audience of farmers and agronomists at St. Jean Farm Days, an agricultural event at St. Jean Baptiste, Man., about 60 km south of Winnipeg.

“A lot of promises have made around big data,” Sabourin says. “Huge venture capital dollars were invested into big data, and we were going to revolutionize farming, but it’s fallen short of that expectation.”

A major reason for this, he says, is that collecting good-quality data remains challenging. Sabourin highlights how variability in fields, and across farms, complicates data analysis. He pointed to the huge variability in terms of rainfall that can exist within a field from one end to the other — not to mention the differences from a farm 20 miles away, or in a neighbouring province.

The result, he says, is a lack of reliable comparisons due to insufficient quality of data.

Sabourin’s company addresses this by starting with small, localized data before scaling to larger datasets. By focusing on small geographies and comparing data at the field and farm levels, farmers can achieve more accurate insights before considering regional trends.

Antara also pools data from its clients to derive what they call “area insights,” covering a 20- to 25-mile radius from their home base.

“We want to be able to compare apples to apples as best we can,” he adds.

Soil testing

Soil testing is one of the simplest and most effective tools for gathering on-farm data.

“I’m a firm believer in soil sampling and doing annual testing, to establish trend lines,” Sabourin says.

For example, he says, when he looks at differences in something like phosphate, a non-mobile nutrient that wouldn’t be expected to change much year over year, he will sometimes track huge differences these numbers. Identifying those trends can reveal important insights.

“We’re growing some heavier phosphate-using crops like corn and soybeans. We’re starting to see on a lot of the fields a trending decline in capacity levels,” Sabourin says. “We’re still well above our critical levels, but it is a trend that we need to keep watching.”

By keeping a spreadsheet that tracks soil samples, farmers can use this information to improve decision-making.

Keeping a nutrient balance sheet that tracks the crops grown, their yields and the fertilizer applied from year to year is also low-hanging fruit in terms of data collection.

Sabourin references an example where one customer who had been growing soybeans for several years, without applying any phosphate, was shocked at how depleted his soils had become. After 10 years, he had mined 170 pounds of phosphate out of his field.

Because it was identified, he’s now able to take corrective action to build it back up.

Sabourin also sees untapped potential in yield monitoring, and noted many farmers have yield monitors on their combines but don’t use them. By analyzing yield variability within a field, farmers can identify areas that need attention.

Driving up yield, driving down costs

The next question farmers must ask themselves is how they can increase yield or reduce expenses.

“This is where the strategy comes into play about budgeting nutrients across the rotation with something like phosphate,” Sabourin says. “I tell my growers to look at what their removal is over five to 10 years, and then advise them, that’s the amount that they should be applying every year.”

However, because you can’t apply all the phosphate at once with canola, farmers must apply it in smaller doses, either in separate applications or in a different year. Sabourin noted many farmers opt to apply extra phosphate in advance.

“They’ll double-fertilize ahead of corn because they’re going to follow it up with canola,” he explains. “They’ll be putting down a percentage of their phosphate ahead of the corn that’s really meant for the canola crop.”

Other data sources

LIDAR elevation maps provide another affordable source of field-level data farmers can access through the Aerial Photography Library portal on the Manitoba Conservation website.

“You can go in there and look through the archives of satellite or aerial photography going back to the 1930s,” Sabourin says. “Often you can lay this map over top of the regular map, and you see why the farmer would have separated things out in different paddocks and different areas.”

Weather stations are another useful tool, but can require an investment of $1,500 to $3,000.

“They hook up to the internet, and you can have all of the data live on your phone,” Sabourin says.

But the ranges for these weather stations are limited. In many cases a farm might need more than one of the units to cover their entire farm. Those expenses can add up.

However, with Antara’s pooled network, the company ran 15 stations this year and all the participants could see weather from all the different stations, spreading that cost over multiple farms.

“We wanted to have a weather station within three miles of all the fields in our system,” he says.

Of course all of this requires a good system of record-keeping. A logbook or spreadsheet that tracks data such as seeding depth, placement, plant counts and weed or insect pressure is invaluable for understanding field performance.

“How it came out of the ground, what was the seed bed like, residue management — these are very useful to come back at harvest time to say ‘Why did this field yield more or less than that field?’”

The post Dollars from data appeared first on Grainews.

Although malting barley once yielded significantly less than higher-yielding feed types, this has now changed. 

“There’s been a pretty large increase in yield,” says Andrew Hector, cereal crop extension specialist with the Manitoba Crop Alliance. Newer varieties now produce yields close to CDC Austin, the top feed variety, he added. 

As a result farmers growing barley for feed are increasingly opting to grow a malting variety, even if it’s just to keep the door open to getting that malting barley premium, which can be as high as $3 per bushel, Hector says. 

But he says one of the biggest advantages of growing barley is that it gives farmers more control come harvest time. 

“It helps you space out your harvest if equipment or personnel constraints limit your options, offering more time management flexibility,” he says. 

Speaking to attendees at the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre’s CMBTC Producer Malt Academy course in Winnipeg last fall, Hector notes malting barley fits roughly into the same slot as wheat in a rotation. 

“Barley planted after cereal saw relatively low yield compared to something like canola,” he says, adding that in Manitoba over half of barley acres were planted into canola stubble.

Variety selection 

A good starting place for variety selection is the CMBTC’s annual Malting Barley Recommended Varieties list. 

Established varieties like AAC Synergy and CDC Copeland remain farmer favourites, while newer varieties such as AAC Connect, CDC Fraser, and CDC Churchill are quickly gaining in popularity. As mentioned, these new varieties are high-yielding, but also have better disease resistance and straw strength.

READ ALSO: New cereals on deck for 2025

“Some of the older varieties have poor lodging (resistance), and they didn’t stand as well, but lodging has vastly improved with these new varieties,” Hector says. 

The CMBTC recommends growers talk to their malting, grain, or seed company representatives to discuss options for growing malting barley. Farmers should also consult their provincial seed guide.

READ ALSO: New malting barley variety acceptance an uphill battle

Varietal purity 

Brewers demand variety purity in order to ensure consistency for their products. Shawn Pasieczka, a food safety grain specialist with Richardson International, said Richardson requests a minimum of 95 per cent purity and tests for it. To meet those standards, he recommends using certified seed.  

While Pasieczka says it’s possible to replant seed saved from previous crops, he warned that some buyers require certified seed. Even if the grower works with a company that doesn’t require certified seed, he recommended retesting the seed to ensure purity, and not to plant seed more than two years beyond certification. 

Seeding dates 

Generally, the recommended dates for planting barley depend on the region and variety, but generally they fall between late April and the end of May. 

READ ALSO: Critical factors in growing malting barley

“Seeding early is important if you want to maximize yield,” Hector says, but adds that the timing of seeding also impacts qualities such as protein levels and kernel uniformity and plumpness, which are important to malting companies. 

According to the CMBTC, North American brewers prefer protein levels between 10 and 11.5 per cent, while Chinese brewers accept slightly higher levels, up to 13 per cent. 

Seeding rates 

Hector says the recommended target plant population for malting barley is 22 to 25 plants per square foot. He points to research done by now-retired AAFC crop scientist John O’Donovan that showed that as seeding rate increased, kernel plumpness and protein concentration decreased. 

“They found that 300 seeds per metre squared was the optimum seeding rate for yield and malt quality,” Hector says. 

Nutrient levels 

A 2022 fertilizer use survey showed that nearly all malt barley growers applied nitrogen, typically as urea or anhydrous ammonia. 

When making nitrogen rate decisions for malt barley, growers should consult with their agronomists to ensure they’re getting the levels right. The CMBTC recommends soil testing to check nutrient levels. 

“There is a balancing act to determining how much nitrogen you should apply,” Hector says. “You need it to reach optimum yield, but excessive nitrogen risks higher than optimum protein levels.” 

Diseases 

The main diseases barley growers must contend with are scald, fusarium head blight and spot blotch. Disease levels depend on geography. Variety disease packages and cultural control methods can help, but at one point or another, a fungicide application could be necessary, and the proper timing of that application is critical. 

“Barley is a little different than wheat in terms of flower timing,” Hector explains. “The label recommendation is typically between 70 and 100 per cent of heads fully emerged on the main stem to three days post head emergence.” 

But Hector warns that heads that haven’t emerged will not have made contact with the fungicide and won’t have the coverage. So, he recommended trying to get as close to 100 per cent of heads emerged as possible. 

Crop protection products 

Malting barley has very strict standards when it comes to residue from crop protection products. Growers should check with the KeepItClean.ca campaign’s annual Product Advisory to ensure they don’t encounter market access issues when selling their grain. 

Products restricted for malt barley include the fungicides fluopyram and tetraconazole, the plant growth regulator chlormequat, and the herbicides glyphosate and saflufenacil. 

The post Fitting malting barley in your rotation appeared first on Grainews.

His field observations in the 2021 growing season, followed by on-farm research trials through 2022 and 2023, produced data to support a recommendation to leave taller crop stubble. Even a couple of extra inches will trap more snow, which will increase soil moisture and lead to higher yields.

“The research showed that every extra inch of stubble height can serve to trap more snow and lead to more moisture for the crop the following year,” says Palmier, owner of Max Ag Consulting at Plenty, about 70 kilometres northeast of Kindersley. “Our 2023 research showed that every extra one inch of crop stubble can increase canola yield by 1.1 bushels per acre.”

He notes there are several variables — there must be snow to start with — but the field trial showed that grain stubble left even two inches taller can result in a canola crop producing two more bushels of oilseed per acre. At about $13 per bushel, that’s a value of about $26 more per acre. The only management change needed is to raise the combine header two inches higher.

Palmier’s look into the value of stubble height began with a couple of harvest situations in fall 2021, which led to the on-farm research trial in 2022. The growing season was dry in 2021, but in one area there was moisture before harvest that caused a lot of volunteer regrowth in one canola field. It was difficult to harvest the standing crop, resulting in a lot of tall stubble.

In another situation, again due to the dry growing season, a producer left part of his canola crop unharvested because of poor yields. Both cases left tall or fairly heavy standing crop residue that trapped and held snow.

“In the early part of harvest in 2022, the yield data showed that something was affecting yield on these fields that had standing stubble and unharvested crop from the previous year,” says Palmier. “Were higher yields in these areas due to taller stubble trapping more snow and ultimately more moisture for the subsequent crop?”

Working with the producer, he launched the on-farm research trial that fall to find out.

Good support from client

Palmier was working with a client who was anxious to learn more about the value of crop height and trapping snow to improve yield. That producer had already invested in two types of harvest systems — two combines equipped with stripper headers and one with a conventional header.

The plan was to establish field scale plots of about 20 acres with varying stubble height in a field of durum wheat. Some plots were harvested with the stripper header, leaving stubble as tall as possible, and other plots were harvested with a combine equipped with a conventional header.

“It’s common for many producers to leave stubble about eight to 10 inches tall,” says Palmier. “The producer I was working with didn’t want to cut the durum crop that short. He was pretty confident that taller stubble could trap more snow, so he wanted to capture as much moisture as possible and still provide a comparison.

“So, the stubble with the conventional combine was cut a bit taller than average but not as tall as the stripper header stubble.”

Palmier says durum stubble height was 18 to 20 inches in stripper header plots and 12 to 14 inches in the conventional header plots. The producer was already using variable rate technology in his fields.

A VR mapping system had identified 10 different production zones on the field and research plots were established in several of those zones. The producer was already using Bayer’s Climate Fieldview technology with GPS tracking, so it was used to measure and mark 20-acre plots for the project.

The durum field was harvested in fall 2022 with 20-acre plots all in the same field. Some were harvested with the stripper header and others with a conventional header. All that was needed was snow, and it did come.

“There was a fairly early snowfall in the fall of 2022, which was captured in the stubble,” says Palmier. “And prevailing winds are important as well. Typically, in this area, winds are from the west, but in the winter of 2022/23, we also had winds from the east. As winds change direction, they help to carry more snow into the stubble.”

He says it is important to note that the 2022 growing season and harvest conditions were extremely dry, so there was no immediate topsoil moisture heading into winter. Without moisture, the soil didn’t freeze so it was receptive when the snow did melt. There was no run-off.

Measuring snow density

The field was left for the fall and winter until February 2023, when Palmier measured the amount of snow and moisture held in the various stubble heights.

“For the snow survey, we collected 10 snow samples from both conventional and stripper stubbles to weigh for snow density,” he says. “We also measured 30 points in both stubbles for snow heights to estimate the average snow height in both treatments. By combining both these measurements, we could then understand what our average snow water equivalent was in the two treatments.”

Palmier noted snow density in the stubble varied between the two harvest treatments. The snow in the stripper header stubble had about 25 per cent moisture, while the conventional stubble had about 27 per cent moisture. He suspects the difference in density was due to the conventional stubble moving more with the wind, allowing the snow to settle, while the stripper header stubble was more rigid.

“Even though the snow in the conventional stubble had more density, there was less of it,” says Palmier. “Whereas the snow caught in the stripper stubble was less dense, but there was more of it due to increased stubble height. Ultimately the stripper header stubble held 20 mm more moisture than the conventional stubble.”

After the snow survey, the field was left until seeding. As spring approached, snow in the stripper header stubble melted sooner than that in the conventional stubble, likely because there was more exposed stubble on the stripper header plots to attract solar energy. Because the ground wasn’t frozen, any moisture went straight into the soil.

Soil moisture probes are key

The final bit of important technology needed to monitor the research project was an on-farm weather station outfitted with soil moisture probes. The project used a Crop Intelligence RealmFive weather station that wirelessly connected to two John Deere moisture probes.

“We set the weather station up at the edge of the field and placed the two soil moisture probes in the same field. One was placed in the stripper stubble plots and one in conventional stubble plots,” says Palmier.

The field was seeded to canola with a disc drill on May 16, and the soil moisture probes were installed May 21. The probes were connected wirelessly to the RealmFive weather station by a flex station, which pulls data from the probe. The station contains a modem and SIM card, where it can upload data to the cloud. It is stored and processed on Crop Intelligence’s platform.

The John Deere soil moisture probes have six sensor points at varying depths along the 100 cm length of the probe. Palmier used a three-inch diameter handheld auger to create a hole the right depth for the probe. To ensure proper soil contact, he first made a slurry of soil and water to fill the hole and then pushed the probe into the slurry.

Once in soil, the probes’ sensors provide soil moisture readings at intervals from 10 cm to 20 cm, 30 cm, 50 cm, 70 cm and 100 cm (from four inches to 40 inches). He says it is important to know the soil type to understand its moisture-holding capacity. Clay soil, for example, will have a plant wilting point with a reading of 20 per cent soil moisture and a maximum moisture-holding capacity of 50 per cent moisture. Sandy loam, on the other hand, will have a wilting point of eight per cent moisture and a maximum holding capacity of 32 per cent moisture.

“It is important to know soil texture,” says Palmier. “The probe will only tell you how much moisture is present, so if it says 32 per cent and you have sandy loam soil, you know the soil is at moisture-holding capacity, but if it is 32 per cent and your soil is more clay, you know you are a long way from moisture-holding capacity. “

For the 2023 growing season, Palmier measured about 20 mm (roughly 0.8 inch) more plant available moisture at the start of the year on the stripper header strips than on the conventional header strips.

The rest of the growing season was not particularly kind to the crop. From May until mid-August, there were just over 82 mm (three inches) of rainfall. The biggest rainfall after June 3 amounted to 11 mm, or less than half an inch. Overall, it was about 39 per cent of the average growing season rainfall. And on top of dry conditions, there were plenty of hot days. Between June 5 and Aug. 15, 22 days were 30 C or hotter.

On the field with alternating strips of crop grown on tall and shorter stubble, canola plants showed a difference in growth pattern. Palmier says the roots on two treatments reached the 10- and 20-cm depths at about the same time. After that, the crop seeded on the stripper header stubble reached 30 cm two days earlier, and 50 and 70 cm depths six days earlier than the short stubble crop.

“That tells me the crop on stripper header stubble appeared to be more vigorous. It had moisture but also the taller stubble most likely helped to reduce abiotic stress factors by providing more shade to plants and protecting plants from the wind and other stressors,” says Palmier.

He also found that the crop on the stripper header stubble started the year with more moisture and ended the growing season with less soil moisture than the shorter stubble crop. Again, it was an indicator of more robust plants that developed more roots and used more moisture.

Overall, the crop with taller stubble yielded six to eight more bushels per acre than crop grown on shorter stubble.

Palmier says not every farm can handle stubble that’s 15 to 20 inches tall, because not every seeding system can work through that much standing crop residue.

“But the point is, if a producer can leave stubble even two or three inches taller — go from eight to 10 or from 10 to 12 inches — it can make a difference in how much snow is trapped and how much moisture is available to the crop.”

“There are only so many things we can control, but we can set things up to take advantage of snow and moisture if or when it does come,” says Palmier. “And particularly during extremely dry conditions, every little bit helps. Small changes in management can make a difference.”

Palmier planned to monitor fields with crops seeded into different stubble heights during the 2024 growing season as well.

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Grainews recently spoke with several prominent seed companies about new soybean varieties they have in the development pipeline and the impact shifting weather patterns are having on their developmental efforts.

Weather challenge

Allan Froese is a soybean product placement scientist for Syngenta in Western Canada and helps oversee the company’s efforts to develop new varieties.

Changing weather patterns have always been a challenge when it comes to seed breeding efforts, he says, but those efforts have become even more challenging of late, with drought and large rain events becoming more commonplace.

“That significantly affects how we can understand how our products will perform … and definitely makes for more of a challenge,” he says.

“Something we’ve been focusing on for several years now is finding products that have broad-acre adaptability that can handle stressful conditions. In order to achieve that, we’ve put a large focus on improving the disease tolerance of our varieties. We want to make sure that as the climate changes… we’re bringing products that can deal with those changing environments.”

As a result, Froese says, Syngenta is now conducting more trials across a larger geography, to ensure the company has a better understanding of how a new product will perform in a wider variety of conditions.

In the near term, Syngenta will be offering varieties containing the Enlist E3 and XtendFlex herbicide tolerance traits. The Enlist E3 platform provides tolerance to 2,4-D, glyphosate and glufosinate herbicides while XtendFlex offers dicamba, glyphosate and glufosinate tolerance. Froese says while some companies will only provide one or the other platform, Syngenta is committed to providing growers choice by offering both trait technologies.

Changing climate

Liz Knutson is the Canadian marketing leader for Corteva Agriscience. Knutson says the company has always been focused on conducting extensive localized breeding and testing to deliver varieties that perform across a wide range of geographies and environments. The upside to that, she says, is that with an ever-changing climate, products that were suitable in one region may suddenly be an appropriate fit elsewhere.

“Because we have those localized programs, as we see agronomic challenges shift or as we see climate patterns shift, we may already have products in the arsenal that may be easily moved or transitioned to other footprints,” she says, citing relative maturity as a good example of that.

Knutson says shifting weather patterns also means listening to what farmers have to say about their needs and potential solutions has become more important than ever.

“Our breeders are always looking forward and taking into account those changing environmental and agronomic pressures where we’re growing new varieties. That includes focusing on yield-limiting diseases and any kind of challenges our farmers might face. We want to be responsive to the market, so as we hear those concerns continue to pop up, we do our very best to address them,” says Knutson.

Corteva recently launched Pioneer brand Z-Series soybeans in Canada, a series offering 20 new varieties. It was available in limited quantities for 2024 and will get a full commercial release for 2025. It’s the fifth soybean series in Pioneer’s 50-year history and Knutson says it represents a generational leap in yield potential and superior disease resistance.

As for what the company has in its developmental pipeline, Knutson would only say Corteva’s next round of soybean product launches will be enhancements on products that are already available.

“We’re really honoured every time a farmer chooses a Corteva-branded product. That’s why we continue to put $4 million a day into our R&D pipeline,” she says.

Important efforts

Stephen Denys is director of market and product development for Maizex Seeds, a southwestern Ontario seed company that sells corn and soybean into Western Canada.

Maizex has one of the largest pre-commercial testing programs in the country and every new variety it develops or licenses must go through a rigorous screening process. Denys says those efforts have become even more important as the climate has continued to evolve.

“One of the reasons we do multiple years of testing is to find varieties that are consistent over differing environments and geographies,” he says. “That way we get to see things under a different range of environmental conditions, and you try to commercialize something that’s going to give a consistent performance, whether it’s a drier year or a wet year.”

One of the results of climate change is a corresponding evolution in disease pressure, Denys says.

As a result, testing new products can’t just focus on agronomics but also the disease front, to make sure seed products evolve as the environment evolves, he adds. In Manitoba, for instance, iron chlorosis tolerance is necessity, but testing also covers sclerotinia and other diseases.

In terms of future soybean releases, Maizex is looking to add new Xtend and Enlist varieties with 2,4-D and Liberty tolerance and with early maturity over the next three to four years.

It’s also planning to launch an Xtend HT4 package that would provide tolerances to dicamba, 2,4-D, Liberty, glyphosate and another herbicide all in the same bundle.

Adapting to changes

Nikki Vercaigne is the campaign marketing manager for DeKalb West with Bayer CropScience. She says the company’s priority for developing new soybean varieties is to focus on products with increased yield potential and a strong disease resistance package that are a fit with growers.

Vercaigne says Bayer’s breeding program takes into consideration the impact of climate change on how the company develops those new products.

“We continue to adapt our research protocols and trial locations to adapt to the changing environmental conditions, specifically looking at heat units and rainfall to maximize soybean genetic potential,” she says.

“Our development pipeline also takes into consideration anticipating future agronomic challenges to help ensure we’re supporting future grower needs with soybean varieties that help solve those challenges.”

DeKalb’s newest soybean release is the DKB007-91XF variety which is being launched for the 2025 growing season. It’s a high-yield-potential variety with medium bushy architecture, strong emergence, great standability and the XtendFlex herbicide system that offers glyphosate, dicamba and glufosinate tolerance.

It’s also looking to launch its own HT4 soybean package within the next three to five years. It would be the company’s first soybean trait system to offer tolerance to five different herbicide active ingredients that Vercaigne says would give growers greater application flexibility to help manage resistant or tough to control weeds.

The post Changing weather, changing varieties appeared first on Grainews.

“For 2024/2025, rotation considerations, moisture conditions, expected prices and input costs/availability are expected to be the main factors determining seeding decisions in the spring,” said AAFC in its report, adding “The average yield and production for most crops is forecast to increase year-over-year based on a return to trend yields, assuming normal weather conditions.”

Citing lower prices and ample global supplies, AAFC forecasts a three per cent decline in non-durum wheat area ant 8.248 million hectares. Durum plantings were forecast to hold relatively steady at 2.477 million hectares. However, total wheat production in 2024/25 is forecast to increase to 33.296 million tonnes, from 31.954 million in 2023/24 due to an expected increase in yields. Canadian wheat exports are forecast to rise to 24.350 million tonnes in 2024/25, from an estimated 23.200 million in the current marketing year.

The total wheat carryout is forecast to rise to 4.200 million tonnes by the end of the 2024/25 marketing year, which would be up from the 3.950 million tonnes projected for 2023/24 and the 3.658 million tonnes seen in 2022/23.

Seeded canola area was forecast at 8.800 million hectares, which would be down slightly from the 8.936 million hectares planted the previous year. Canola production is forecast at 18.365 million tonnes, which would be in line with the 18.328 million tonnes grown in 2023/24. Canola exports were forecast to hold steady at 7.700 million tonnes, with ending stocks dipping to

1.400 million tonnes from a projected 1.450 million tonnes in 2023/24.

Barley is also forecast to see a smaller acreage base but increased production, while oats area and production are both forecast to increase in 2024/25. Total barley production is expected to rise by four per cent, at 9.280 million tonnes, while the oats crop could be up by as much as 41 per cent, at 3.705 million tonnes.

Pea, lentil, and chickpea plantings are all expected to be up on the year, with increased production and yields also likely. Pea production is forecast to increase by 19 per cent, at 3.100 million tonnes, while lentil production of 2.200 million tonnes would be up by 32 per cent.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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“I’ve heard good comments from some in the industry that the sunflower crop looks pretty good this year,” Lange said, noting Manitoba yields were estimated at 2,500 to 2,800 pounds per acre.

Earlier this fall, those yields came in at 2,000 to 2,400 lbs./ac., which was better than the forecast for 1,990 from Statistics Canada.

“Before the snow about three weeks ago, we still had a little way to go,” Lange said of the provincial sunflower harvest. “Most parts of the central region were finished up. There was still some to go in the eastern region, up in the Interlake, and the southwest.”

When Manitoba Agriculture published it last crop report of 2023, on Oct. 24, it listed the sunflower harvest at 58 per cent complete provincewide. At that time, 80 per cent of sunflowers in the central region had been combined with 60 per cent each in the eastern and Interlake regions, while 35 per cent was harvested in the southwest.

With decent weather lately for southern Manitoba, Lange placed the sunflower harvest at around 95 per cent complete, the Interlake still somewhat behind.

“They were delayed moreso from other crops. Trying to get some canola off, some of the late cereals, and finishing up the corn,” he said.

Morgan Cott, agronomy extension specialist with the Manitoba Crop Alliance, said some growers might leave part of their sunflower crop in the field over winter, then combine it in the spring.

“They’re dried down enough,” she said, noting at this point it doesn’t matter if the sunflowers are still in the field or stored in grain bins.

“As long there hasn’t been some weird incident where it wasn’t dry enough with the first frost,” Cott added, stating that some moisture in sunflowers during a September frost could lead to issues later.

StatCan in September forecast 77,700 tonnes of sunflowers to be produced in Canada in 2023-24. However, the crop alliance said that could reach upward to 85,000 to 90,000 tonnes, given improved yields.

Manitoba grows nearly all of Canada’s sunflowers, producing 95.6 per cent of Canada’s crop in 2023, with the remainder this year grown in Alberta, according to StatCan.

Total sunflower output in 2022 came in at 84,054 tonnes, a far distance from the record sunflower crop of 217,800 tonnes in 1979.

StatCan is set to publish its survey-based production report on Dec. 4.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“I think everyone’s getting prepped and ready for Argentina’s harvest, but it’s quiet,” he said. “There’s still movement on previous contracts, but not a lot of new contracts materializing.”

While Hansen said chickpea purchases by exporters have slowed down in recent weeks, chickpea prices have gone up in all varieties compared to one year ago. Prices for kabuli chickpeas sized eight millimetres or larger increased anywhere between 2.3 and 7.8 cents per pound, to a range between 48 and 57.8 cents/lb. delivered, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire as of Monday. Eight-mm Kabulis went up four cents/lb. in price from last week and 5.3 cents/lb. from last month. Kabulis measuring seven mm went up in price by 3.8 cents/lb., to a range of 34 to 39.8 cents.

Desi No. 1 chickpeas rose by 10 cents/lb. to between 36.5-40 cents, while B-90 No. 1 prices went up 3.8 cents/lb. to a range of 37.8-39.8 cents.

Hansen explained that lower yields for nine-mm Kabulis have supported prices.

“Turkey is short on their nine-mm production. The United States are short on their nine-mm production. Argentina was short on their nine-mm production and we were as well,” he said.

Canada produced 134,000 tonnes of chickpeas for the 2023-24 marketing year, 6,000 more than the year before, as increased planted area more than countered a decline in average yields, according to Statistics Canada data.

“The quality was probably some of the best Canada had ever seen. But while the quality was good, yields were lower,” Hansen said.

Exports for Canadian chickpeas are expected to fall from 225,000 tonnes in 2022-23 to 120,000 this year, according to the latest supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released Monday.

“We are seeing healthy export movement,” Hansen said. “Typically with exports, we see (healthy movement) from August to January or February and it hasn’t been different this year compared to last.”

Argentina’s harvest over the next month is expected to have a decent chickpea crop, according to Hansen, which could bring more price movement in the coming weeks.

“Kind of an average crop. We won’t know anything on sizing and we won’t know anything on overall quality until it’s cut and in the grain bin… Five or 10 per cent, plus or minus either way (for production),” he said.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

The post Pulse weekly outlook: Activity to ramp up for chickpeas appeared first on Grainews.

“The whole world is a little short of beans this year,” said Mitch Coulter, executive director of the Northarvest Bean Growers Association in Fargo, N.D..

He noted Mexico was already buying heavily from the U.S. and Canada, while Argentina, normally a competitor with North American beans, had troubles with its crop.

About 70 per cent of the edible beans grown in Minnesota are irrigated, “and those acres were really good,” Coulter said.

However, on the North Dakota side, “it’s variable… if we got the rains, those beans were average to slightly above average, while in other zones where we missed the rains, we had a poor crop.”

In North Dakota, producers primarily grow pinto and black beans, while kidney and navy beans are more prominent in Minnesota, according to Coulter. He described the pinto and black beans as average in terms of quality, while “the kidney beans were supreme — they really came out nice this year.”

From a marketing standpoint, Coulter expected to see strong prices going forward, with some buyers already contracting for next year’s crop. As a result, he anticipated picking up some more acres for edible beans in 2024.

U.S. farmers grew 1.02 million tonnes of edible beans in 2023-24, which was down from the 1.17 million tonnes grown the previous year due to a combination of smaller yields and reduced acres, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. North Dakota, the largest edible-bean-growing state, saw production down by roughly 22 per cent on the year at 365,500 tonnes.

Canada grew 276,600 tonnes of edible beans in 2023-24, according to Statistics Canada data, which would be down by 36,000 tonnes from the previous year and the smallest production since 2016.

Pinto beans in North Dakota are currently trading around 35 to 36 U.S. cents/lb., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data, with black beans topping out at 40 and navies at 30. Kidney beans were bid at roughly 41 cents/lb.

In Manitoba, pinto beans delivered to the elevator were trading as high as 52.5 cents/lb., with navy beans at 53-56 cents, black beans at 57.3-60.3 and kidney beans in the 50-54 cents/lb. area.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

The post Pulse weekly outlook: Smaller North American dry bean crops to underpin prices appeared first on Grainews.

“Generally on the east side of the province and some areas of the south, some pretty good yields. And then in the west-central, southwest regions, some yields that were quite low. It’s quite a varied outcome,” Potts said.

“Overall, I think what we’re expecting is to have overall pulse yields certainly less than last year and lower than the five-year average. But better than the 2021 drought year.”

He estimated pea and lentil yields to be 25 per cent lower than 2019-20 and 2020-21 and 12 to 13 per cent lower than 2022-23. Due to being grown in drier areas in the province, lentil and chickpea yields fared worse than those for dry peas and faba beans. However, the news wasn’t all bad.

“From an overall perspective, harvest started earlier than normal this year and progressed fairly well. We have good harvest weather for the most part and as a result, we’re expecting good quality overall,” Potts said.

The province’s pulse export program is anticipated to be smaller than normal for this marketing year, according to Potts. However, this could mean firmer prices for Saskatchewan pulses while international demand stays strong.

“Any forecasts that I’ve seen have indicated tight carryout at the end of the current marketing year. So I expect the export program will go as strong as it can, given the supply limitations we might have this year.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

The post Pulse weekly outlook: Smaller yields than last year in Saskatchewan appeared first on Grainews.