Ukraine harvested 21.6 million tons of wheat in 2023.

A total of about 28.5 million tons of grain had been harvested as of Friday, including 458,500 tons of peas and 5.5 million tons of barley, the ministry said.

It also raised its forecast for the 2024 grain harvest to 56 million tons from 52.4 million. Together with oilseeds, the crop could total 77 million tons, it said.

—Reporting for Reuters by Anastasiia Malenko

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Yields for the fall rye were reported to be 90 to 120 bushels per acre and 40 to 110 bu./ac. for the winter wheat.
In addition, five per cent of the barley and almost one per cent of the spring wheat and field peas were taken off the fields. The ag department said most of the spring cereals ranged from hard dough to physiological maturity, with late-planted crops at the soft dough stage.

As for the quality of the spring wheat, Manitoba Agriculture said the Interlake and the central region reported it to be 85 per cent good to excellent. The northwest came in at 80 per cent good to excellent, with the eastern region at 70 per cent and the southwest at 65 per cent.

Manitoba’s canola was said to be in the pod fill to early ripening stage, while some of the oilseed has been swathed. The later-planted canola was nearing the end of blooming to beginning to fill pods. Among the other oilseeds, the flax was reported to be in growth stages 10 to 11, while the sunflowers ranged from the R4 stage to completing flowering.

The report said soybeans were in the R3 to R5 stages with the majority in R4.

The first cut of tame forages was said to be complete and work on native stands was continuing. The second cut of alfalfa was finished as well with good yields reported. High levels of humidity and morning dew has impeded the on the quality of the forages. Despite that, cereal silage yields were above average.

Hot, dry conditions were slowing pastures due to limited moisture reserves. Dugouts were at 80 per cent capacity and water supplies on pastures was adequate.

Rainfall in the province saw Moosehorn and Rorketon receive the most at 42 to 45 millimeters, while several locations had none.

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In a wrap-up to mark the end of the wheat season, the exchange said planting of the crop had been 5.9 million hectares (14.6 million acres), its lowest in the last five seasons due to dry weather last year that has since reversed with decent rains.

The lower planting dented initial production estimates.

“The campaign ends 3.1 million tons below the initial outlook due to the reduced planting area, late frosts in early October and a large part of the central farm area affected by water stress during the critical period,” it added

The national average yield for wheat was around 25 per cent higher than the previous cycle, but 2.7 per cent lower than the average yield of the last five campaigns, it added. The harvest was up 23.8 per cent.

It added that despite the improved harvest versus the drought-hit 2022/23 season, lower global prices would dent the crop’s economic impact this year, though a rebound in exports should help bring in more tax revenues for the government.

Argentina is a key global wheat exporter and one of the top suppliers of soy and corn. It is heavily reliant on grains exports for foreign currency income needed to refill depleted reserves and bolster the embattled economy.

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One of those reports pertained to Canada and its wheat production. Written by the USDA attaché in Ottawa, the report stated drought could be a major concern for 2024/25 across the Prairies, citing low snowfall this winter and a lack of soil moisture following the 2023/24 harvest. The attaché added that grasshoppers are set to be an issue for Alberta and Saskatchewan this coming growing season.

Meanwhile, the Ottawa desk pegged the 2023/24 Canadian wheat harvest at 31.95 million tonnes, down from 34.34 million the year before. Exports for this year were forecast at 23.30 million tonnes, short of the 25.60 million in 2022/23. The attaché pegged ending stocks for 2023/24 are expected to dip to 3.54 million tonnes compared to the 3.66 million last year.

In comparison with data compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2023/24 production was slotted at 31.95 million tonnes, exports of 23.20 million, and a carryover of 3.95 million.

The USDA attaché in Beijing projected China’s 2023/24 corn crop to grow by 4.2 per cent at 288.84 million tonnes due to heavy rains during the summer. Corn imports were forecast to increase to 20 million tonnes in 2023/24 from last year’s 18.71 million. The Beijing desk noted that Brazil, with 10 million tonnes, surpassed the United States in 2023/24 as China’s top source of imported corn.

China’s corn for feed and residual was nudged up from 220 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 223 million. The carryover is to increase to 206.85 million tonnes from 203.03 million.

For Mexico, it’s 2023/24 corn crop faced unfavourable weather, reduced planted area, and smaller than expected yields. The attaché in Mexico City placed the harvest at 25.5 million tonnes compared to the 28.08 million in 2022/23. Corn imports were to bump up from 19.36 million tonnes to 19.60 million. Ending stocks were projected to fall from 4.5 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 2.80 million this year.

The 2023/24 corn crop in South Africa won’t be as large as the previous year’s harvest of 17.06 million tonnes, according to the USDA attaché in Pretoria. The attaché estimated this year’s crop at 15.80 million tonnes, citing rain-delayed planting in some regions of South Africa, with dryness in the North West province. That’s to see exports contract from 3.80 million tonnes in 2022/23 to three million in 2023/24. However, total consumption was projected to rise from 12.75 million tonnes to 13.10 million. In the end, the Pretoria desk set the carryout to decline from 19.01 million tonnes to 18.26 million.

In Kuala Lumpur, the USDA attaché in Malaysia said that country’s palm oil production is to increase from 18.40 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 19 million this year. The attaché pointed to Malaysia being less affected by the El Nino than anticipated, reduced labour challenges, and less replanting of palm trees. Exports were set to climb from 15.36 million tonnes last year to 16.60 million this year. That’s to lead to ending stocks falling from 2.33 million tonnes in 2023/24 to 1.65 million this year.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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Wheat and barley production for 2023/24 was significantly lower than the very large crops of the previous marketing year. For wheat, the attaché estimated Australian output for this year at 25.5 million tonnes, down from the record 40.55 million in 2022/23 which was fueled by ample rainfall. Barley came in at 10.50 million tonnes having dropped from the near record harvest of 14.14 million.

When wheat and barley are compared to their 10-year averages, of 26.5 million tonnes and 11.2 million respectively, their 2023/24 harvests were favourable, the attaché stated.

There was a small decline in harvested wheat area, the attaché noted, with 12.5 million hectares in 2023/24 compared to the 13.05 million the year before. Yields fell by more than a tonne per hectare, from 3.11 last year to only 2.04.

With a smaller wheat harvest came reduced exports, the Canberra desk reported 31.82 million tonnes in 2022/23 versus 19 million this year. Total consumption remained at eight million tonnes and ending stocks dropped from 4.37 million tonnes to 3.07 million.

The attaché noted harvested area for barley bumped up to 4.20 million hectares from the 4.13 million sown in 2022/23 but yields fell back from 3.43 t/ha. to 2.5 in 2023/24.

Marketing year exports were down as well, from 7.77 million tonnes to six million in 2023/24, but total consumption remained at six million tonnes. That saw ending stocks shrink from 3.22 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 1.72 million.

China continued figure prominently when it came to wheat and barely exports from Australia, with the attaché noting the latter has often faced stiff competition from Canada.

Of Australia’s total wheat exports, the percentage heading to China has risen from nine to 24 per cent over the last three years.

Barley witnessed a turnaround in exports, as China lifted its three-year-old ban on the Australian crop. Outbound shipments to China resumed in August 2023, with a surge in exports during September and October. In that short timeframe, China became Australia’s number three barley customer.

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Statistics Canada’s crop estimates tend to increase in the annual December report, but the agency’s raised estimate for all-wheat production surpassed industry expectations.

Global wheat ending stocks have fallen four years in a row, with Canada’s drought and heavy rain in Australia tightening this year’s supplies, offset somewhat by a big Russian harvest.

Canada is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and the biggest canola exporter.

Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat production at 32 million metric tons, the second-lowest in six years, but an increase from its September estimate of 29.8 million. The new estimate exceeded the average industry expectation of 31.1 million tons in a Reuters poll.

“It’s a pretty big jump from the fall report. Yields came off quite a bit better than expected,” said Brian Voth, president of farmer advisory IntelliFarm. Timely late-summer rains may have revived some crops, he said.

Farmers harvested 24.8 million tons of spring wheat, the wheat milled for baking flour, up from StatsCan’s previous estimate of 22.6 million and the average trade estimate of 24 million.

Growers produced 4 million tons of durum, the hard wheat used to make pasta, the second-smallest harvest in 13 years amid tight global supplies and a slight reduction from StatsCan’s previous estimate.

The StatsCan report is based on a farmer survey.

Farmers produced 18.3 million tons of canola, up from 17.4 million in the previous report but down 2% from last year. StatsCan’s estimate matched the average trade guess.

ICE Canada January canola futures eased slightly, little changed from before the report.

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Much of the eastern, southern and central regions received two millimetres of precipitation at most during the week with several locations receiving no rainfall at all. The northwest region saw most of the precipitation during the week with Birch River getting a province-wide high of 18.4 mm. Parts of the northwest region showed wet soil moisture conditions, while localized areas, especially in the Interlake, were extremely dry.

However, the wettest place in Manitoba since May 1 was Fisherton in the Interlake (279 mm, 115 per cent of normal precipitation). The driest was Cartwright in the central region (73 mm, 27 per cent).

The province’s harvest was 13 per cent complete as of Aug. 20, on par with the five-year average. Winter wheat and fall rye were the two most advanced crops at 92 and 93 per cent, respectively, with early average yields at 60 and 70 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, 69 per cent of field peas have come off the ground with yields ranging from 45 to 70 bu./ac. The barley harvest was 26 per cent complete, compared to spring wheat at 23 per cent, oats at 21 per cent and canola at less than one per cent.

Spring wheat quality were 80 per cent good in both the eastern and Interlake regions, 60 per cent good and 10 per cent excellent in the northwest and 40 per cent good in the central and southwest regions. Spring cereal crops are mostly in the hard dough stage while corn is mostly in the R4 and R5 stages.

Most of the canola crop is in the late pod fill stage and earlier seeded canola is showing colour change. Sunflower fields ranged from the R6 to R8 stages, while flax growth ranged from stage 10 (green capsule) to 11 (brown capsule). Soybeans are in the R6 and R7 stages, while the dry bean harvest, despite reports of desiccation in the central region, is expected to start in the coming days.

Most dairy producers in the eastern region have completed their third cut of hay with yields greater than the second. Beef producers completed their first and second cuts as well as greenfeed harvest. Cereal silage harvest is near complete with yields ranging from five to eight wet tons per acre, while the corn silage harvest is set to begin. Grass conditions are deteriorating with producers supplementing hay on pasture.

Meanwhile, community pastures are sending cattle home early and producers are moving cattle to hay fields in order to graze regrowth. Sourcing straw has also been difficult due to low cereal yields. Grasshoppers continue to cause issues in fields.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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While the spring wheat harvest is just getting started and it’s hard to get a firm handle on quality at this time, “it’s fair to say that it won’t all be premium,” said Brent VanKoughnet, executive director of the Manitoba Wheat and Barley Growers Association and a farmer at Carman, Man.

“There are years when nothing can go wrong; this isn’t one of them,” he added.

As far as the wheat quality goes, “it’s really variable,” he said, noting his own farm had received two inches of rain over the past three days, while “two miles from here, they’ve only had half an inch.”

Excess moisture also caused problems in other parts of Western Canada during the growing season, with major wheat grower Saskatchewan dealing with fusarium issues as well, according to the latest provincial crop report.

On top of increased disease pressure, more recent rains are causing harvest delays, which can lead to quality downgrades as well.

Pam de Rocquigny, a crops specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, said winter wheat quality was generally good, but early reports on spring wheat were highly variable.

“There is some variability out there, but what that variability is in terms of numbers, we don’t have yet,” and determining yields is much quicker than grading the crop, she said.

“Anytime there is wet weather during the harvest, it can obviously cause concern in terms of downgrading,” she said.

“Yield is one component of how (farmers) get paid, but quality is important as well. So they are doing everything they can, given the challenging conditions, to make sure they are maximizing the quality of the crop they are taking off.”

In a report Tuesday, Statistics Canada pegged Canada’s 2016-17 wheat crop at 30.5 million tonnes, compared to 27.6 million the previous year.

Of the wheat total, spring wheat was pegged at 20.2 million tonnes, up by only 300,000 tonnes from 2015-16. Durum and winter wheat had more sizeable increases, accounting for most of the yearly change.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

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“In our country, all of the grain was top grade, but anything that was left out at this stage is probably a No. 3,” said Bill Craddock, a Manitoba farmer and local trader.

That sentiment is even more pronounced in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

“The first half of harvest had quality patterns in the top tier,” said market analyst Jon Driedger of Farm Link Marketing Solutions.

However, while the early-harvested wheat was generally hitting No. 1 or No. 2 quality levels, the last half was hit by rain and a good portion of that will grade No. 3 or lower.

The question now is how much will be pushed all the way down into feed-grade and how much is still salvageable for milling quality, said Driedger. “The longer this drags out, the worse it gets.”

However, grade spreads for the good-quality early-harvested wheat are not widening out as much as could be expected, with the trade still feeling it will be able to work with the supplies available, he said.

The supply of good-quality grain is still better than last year when there was more widespread degradation, said Neil Townsend, director of market research services at G3 Canada, formerly CWB.

Looking at durum as an example, Townsend noted fewer than a million tonnes made the top two grades in 2014. This year, there will likely be over two million tonnes hitting No. 1 and No. 2, despite the late quality problems, according to Townsend. As a result, there should be enough of the top grades to meet the demand.

Feed supplies may be larger than average, but are also not considered burdensome.

“There will be lots of opportunities for blending this year,” according to Townsend.

One “interesting dilemma” with the 2015 crop is that that the early-harvested supplies were seeing very high proteins, he said.

However, there is only a relatively small market for the highest-protein wheat, with the remainder being blended in some fashion. “Sometimes they’ll be blending down (for protein), and sometimes blending up (for quality).

“There’s no big gap in the world that people have to come to Canada, so Canada has to find business,” said Townsend. “We have our good milling customers and then we have everybody else; we’ll have to do a lot of that ‘everything else’ to get this crop moved.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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However, those numbers still may be underreported, and further revisions are expected in subsequent reports.

“As the harvest is moving along, we’re seeing harvest results come in better than what people were thinking prior to getting in the field,” said Jon Driedger, senior analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions.

“StatsCan is notorious for revising crop estimates higher long after the fact,” he added.

Pre-report trade estimates for canola range from roughly 13.5 million to 15.2 million tonnes, which would compare with the August estimate of 13.3 million tonnes and the model-based forecast released in September of 14.4 million. In 2014-15 Canadian farmers grew 16.4 million tonnes of canola.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the final number came in above 15 (million),” said Driedger, although he was uncertain if the October report would be that large.

All-wheat production is forecast at anywhere from 24.7 million to 26.5 million tonnes, which compares with the August estimate of 24.6 million and the year-ago level of 29.4 million tonnes.

Of that total, durum production is estimated at 4.5 million to 5.1 million tonnes. Canadian farmers grew 5.2 million tonnes of durum in 2014-15.

While drought conditions caused concerns early in the growing season, “weather conditions improved as we went along… with better yields even in some of the worst-hit areas,” said Neil Townsend, director of market research services for G3 Canada, formerly CWB.

Townsend attributed the better-than-expected crops in part to improved varieties and genetics.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

Table: Pre-report estimates as of Sept. 30, 2015, ahead of Statistics Canada’s Oct. 2, 2015 report. StatsCan estimates from August and 2014-15 numbers included for comparison. Production in millions of tonnes.

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