The mean near-surface temperature in January-August 2025 was 1.42 C above the pre-industrial average, said the WMO report, released just ahead of the United Nations climate change summit (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, Nov. 10-21. The past 11 years, 2015 to 2025, will individually have been the eleven warmest years in the 176-year observational record, with the past three years being the three warmest years on record.

Why it matters: Rising global temperatures are influencing agricultural production and food systems

Concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases and ocean heat content, which both reached record levels in 2024, continued to rise in 2025, said the WMO. Arctic sea ice extent after the winter freeze was the lowest on record, and Antarctic sea ice extent tracked well below average throughout the year. The long-term sea level rise trend continued despite a small and temporary blip due to naturally occurring factors, said the report.

Weather and climate-related extreme events to August 2025 — ranging from devastating rainfall and flooding to brutal heat and wildfires — had cascading impacts on lives, livelihoods and food systems. This contributed to displacement across multiple regions, undermining sustainable development and economic progress.

“This unprecedented streak of high temperatures, combined with last year’s record increase in greenhouse gas levels, makes it clear that it will be virtually impossible to limit global warming to 1.5 C in the next few years without temporarily overshooting this target,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in a press release. However, she added that “the science is equally clear that it’s still entirely possible and essential to bring temperatures back down to 1.5 °C by the end of the century.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on nations to “act now, at great speed and scale, to make the overshoot as small, as short, and as safe as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 C before the end of the century.”

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In part, it means being proactive by keeping grain in good condition. A key reason people become trapped in grain is because the stored product has gone out-of-condition; keeping grain in good condition lessens the need to enter a grain bin. That’s especially critical for canola, which is particularly susceptible to spoilage in storage.

Andre Harpe is vice-chair of the Canadian Canola Growers Association (CCGA) and a third-generation farmer with around 5,000 acres of canola, barley and grass seed northwest of Grande Prairie, Alta.

“When it comes to grain, you have to be very careful around it, and the safest way to do that is to stay out of it,” Harpe says. “Many of the injuries I know of have been the result of canola sweating and creating a crust at the top. So, it’s very important that canola, and all grain, is stored correctly and safely.”

“Being proactive and on top of things is the best bet, because, unfortunately, it’s pretty simple for canola to spoil,” says Breanna Miller Friesen, an agronomy specialist with the Canola Council of Canada.

“The critical time to make sure grain is conditioned properly is in the initial post-harvest time. If canola goes into the bin with a higher moisture or if it’s quite warm, then we’re already increasing the chances of an issue later down the line.”

Since canola is sensitive to moisture, getting it down to eight per cent moisture and less than 15 C in temperature as soon as possible is key for safe long-term storage.

Of course, it’s not just the grain that farmers need to be mindful of in storage — dockage (grain dust, weed seeds, et cetera) and green canola can also have a significant impact as they tend to have more moisture than canola seeds.

“Ninety-nine per cent or more of seeds can be dried down and mature, but then there are those small pockets with high-moisture green seeds and that can cause spoilage,” Miller Friesen says.

Proper airflow is also essential for canola. As Miller Friesen explains, canola is a challenging crop for airflow because of its small size and round shape, which leaves fewer air pockets than other grains, and getting adequate air circulation can require more effort with larger storage facilities.

Once canola is in storage, it’s necessary to regularly monitor temperature and moisture levels. While monitoring is particularly crucial during the initial storage period to ensure the product is cooling down properly, Miller-Friesen stresses the importance of staying on top of monitoring year-round.

“Farmers can’t get complacent about monitoring their stored canola, particularly as the warmer weather comes in. Towards the end of winter, I know a lot of farmers are thinking about seeding and getting ready for the season ahead. But it’s important to still keep stored canola top of mind,” Miller Friesen says, noting cold snaps during the winter are an ideal time to run fans and move cool air around proactively.

“Considering how quickly a bin can spoil, a lot of farmers check their storage weekly or biweekly to stay ahead of things.”

On Harpe’s farm, monitoring stored grain is a regular occurrence, which he says makes it both easier and safer to detect issues early on.

“As soon as we see that something is happening to the canola, if it is starting to sweat or if it’s starting to get a bit warm, we pull it out of storage and move it or dry it,” he says.

In grain bins, heat rising in the centre and cooling off from the colder canola on the outside can lead to issues with moisture and spoilage. Crusted or heated seed at the top of a bin, typically in a cone shape, indicates that quick action is needed to prevent further spoilage.

“If out-of-condition canola is caught early enough, where some of it is just starting to spoil, it’s best to isolate and remove the spoiled canola as soon as possible and then get fans running and potentially move the remaining canola to another bin,” Miller Friesen says.

“The biggest thing is to catch out-of-condition canola before it impacts the entire bin. When a full bin is compromised, it is a very scary situation that hopefully few people ever have to experience.”

Proper practices pivotal

“My stance is that I want everyone to go home at night the same way they came to work, and the only way to do that is to try and keep things as safe as possible. Being proactive with good canola storage practices is a big part of that,” Harpe says. CCGA, Alberta Canola, SaskOilseeds and the Manitoba Canola Growers Association have been supporters of the Canadian Agricultural Safety Association’s BeGrainSafe program since it launched in 2017.

The return, he says, is far greater than just unspoiled canola.

“One of my employees likes working on my farm because of how we proactively address safety, and he has told me he feels safer on my farm. When you are proactive and work to keep things as safe as possible, it makes for a better working environment, which benefits the entire farm,” Harpe says.

Although some may have an “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it” approach to certain farming practices, Harpe says it’s important for farmers to stay up to date on new techniques and consider the return on investment for technologies that can boost efficiency — such as with monitoring stored grain — and improve safety.

“There is always room for improvement on any farm. At the end of the day, a safe farm is a successful farm.”

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An area of low pressure has developed over the American Midwest, and while the parent low is not forecasted to develop into a strong storm system, an upper air disturbance associated with the low, but displaced well to north, is forecasted to bring a wide swath of snow to the Canadian Prairies, beginning Wednesday morning, Feb. 5. In Saskatchewan snow is forecasted to become moderate to heavy with accumulations in southern Saskatchewan pushing into the 10 to 15 cm range. Due to the cold atmosphere, the snow is expected to be fairly fluffy. Manitoba will see slightly less accumulations. The system should pull east of the Prairies by Thursday. Across Alberta, southern and eastern regions my see some snow which could last into early in the day Wednesday.

After this system moves through it looks like most of the Prairies will see sunny to partly cloudy skies for the rest of the forecast period as the general flow across the Prairies continues out of the northwest with several weak arctic highs forecasted to drop southeastwards in the flow. This will keep temperatures on the cold side, but fortunately it does not look like there will be a significant outbreak of really cold air.

Alberta

Southern and eastern regions could see 2 to 5 cm of snow from an area of low pressure developing to the south of the province. Most of the snow should fall during the morning on Wednesday before tapering off in the evening as the supporting low pulls off to the east. Behind the low the flow across the province will become north to northwesterly. Within this flow, several areas of arctic high pressure are forecasted to drop southwards over the next week. These highs should bring mostly clear skies right through to next Wednesday with the exception of a couple of quick shots of clouds and flurries as each high builds southwards. The first chance is on Sunday and then again around Tuesday. With Arctic high pressure firmly in place it means cold temperatures. Expect daytime highs across southern regions to be in the -12 C range with overnight lows falling to around -21 C. Over central regions highs will be in the -15 C range with overnight lows around -24 C, while in the north expect highs in the -18 C range with overnight lows falling to around -27 C.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

We start this forecast period off with a disturbance tracking across southern and central regions bringing plenty of clouds along with widespread snowfall. Typically snowfalls use a 10:1 ratio of water to snow depth, but this this system the ratio will likely be around 20:1. This means that while accumulations may be in the 10 to 15 cm range over southern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, the snow will be light and fluffy. While there will likely not be that much wind with the system, once it passes through and high pressure begins to build, we can expect winds to pick up causing some blowing snow. This will occur late in the afternoon and overnight into Thursday morning in Saskatchewan, and on Thursday in Manitoba. Central and eastern parts of Manitoba will likely see between 5 and 10 cm of light fluffy snow starting early morning on Wednesday and lasting until early Thursday. There is some indication that the southern half of southern Manitoba may miss out on most of the snow with only a couple of centimetres expected.

Once this system pulls off to the east on Thursday we will see as series of arctic high pressure systems dropping southeastwards out of the Yukon. While these highs are forecasted to bring below average temperatures, a severe cold snap is not expected. Expect daytime highs to be in the -16 to -20 C range with overnight lows falling into the -24 to -28 C range.

Looking further ahead, the weather models are showing the same basic pattern staying in place right through most of February. So, expect most days to be sunny and cool/cold with a quick shot of some light snow every week or so. As usual, you know once we write about it, Mother Nature is going to change it!

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In Edmonton, Trudeau received an update on firefighting efforts by Canadian soldiers sent to help provincial firefighting and recovery efforts since Thursday. More troops are expected to join in the coming days, according to the Alberta government.

The widespread blazes have marked an intense start to wildfire season in Alberta, forcing more than 30,000 people out of their homes at one point and shuttering at least 319,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), or 3.7 per cent of national production.

The first 11 days of May have set seasonal heat records in several parts of Alberta, including Edmonton, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Lt. Col. Ben Schmidt, one of the army officials who briefed Trudeau, told him about the regions most at risk and how a lack of rain in the forecast was “a huge challenge.”

The forecast for Alberta shows a cold front sweeping through starting Tuesday evening that would bring gusty winds, a slight chance of a thunderstorm, but not much rain, said Sara Hoffman, a meteorologist with Environment Canada.

“We’re very concerned about the possibility of dry lightning in an area that’s already got a pretty high fire risk,” Hoffman said. Hot and dry conditions are expected ramp up again from Friday and are unlikely to ease at least until early next week.

“I don’t believe the worst is behind us,” Alberta Wildfire agency official Christie Tucker said Monday at a briefing.

As of Monday afternoon, 87 fires were burning across Alberta, with 25 considered out of control. About 1.32 million acres are estimated to have burned so far in 2023 in 466 known wildfires.

“Our peak burning period, which is when the temperatures are at their highest and the fuels are at their driest, is still in front of us,” Alberta Wildfires official Josee St-Onge said at a briefing Sunday afternoon.

“It’s too soon to say when we’re going to see the peak of this wildfire season. … We are going to continue to be challenged.”

As of Sunday afternoon, over 19,300 people were evacuated from wildfire areas under 14 evacuation orders, with another eight areas on evacuation alert.

Provincial and county officials on Sunday were working to set up fireguards around Grande Prairie, a city of about 68,000 in Alberta’s Peace region. Parts of the surrounding County of Grande Prairie have been among areas subject to evacuation orders since May 5.

Members of organizations including the Alberta Association of Agricultural Societies and Alberta Auction Markets Association have offered up facilities for penning evacuated livestock.

The province also recently recommended producers call its 310-LAND (5263) number to discuss emergency grazing options, and noted it is taking applications for temporary grazing on public lands.

Benchmark Canadian heavy crude prices tightened last week to multi-month highs on concerns about the wildfires.

Late on Sunday, Paramount Resources said that due to the fires a third-party gas processing plant and some Paramount fields were shut, and it had curtailed 45,000 boepd.

Vermilion Energy said on Monday it had restored 60 per cent of the 30,000 boepd that it previously shut in.

— Reporting for Reuters by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa, Anna Mehler Paperny in Toronto and Rod Nickel in Winnipeg. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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“For the rest of March, it’s status quo, it will stay cold. We’re not going to see a big increase in precipitation across the Prairies,” Lerner said.

As for the northern Plains, he said there will be waves of snow and a little bit of rain. Then come April, that is to shift to more rain and less snow as temperatures turn somewhat warmer.

On the Prairies during the first half of April, Lerner pointed to some short-term changes with some warming and the potential for a little more precipitation.

“No major storms necessarily, maybe a more organized storm system or two might occur,” he said.

Come the second half of April, Lerner said to expect more cold air, especially across the eastern half of the Prairies and the upper Midwest as temperatures slip back a little from normal. However, he expects Alberta to remain warmer.

As the La Nina comes to an end after three years, there’s an El Nino forming, but Lerner doesn’t expect it to have any great affect on North American weather until the winter.

“There are a lot of other weather patterns that are on the way that will be dominating North America for the next six to seven months,” he said.

“Once [the El Nino] develops, winter will be drier and warmer than normal on the Prairies and probably the northern Plains too.”

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“For the month of November, it looks like we’re off to a cold start for most of the Prairies. The western Prairies… had quite a significant winter storm,” Kehler said, noting another snowstorm already brewing for that part of the region.

“As we get later into the winter, December will probably be looking at this point, as a more normal month,” he added, calling for near normal amounts of precipitation, but becoming colder.

Kehler said the winter of 2022-23 will be marked by another La Nina, the third in as many years, which he stressed is highly unusual.

“Right now, that looks like in the early part of winter it will probably not have as much impact, but as we get later in the winter the impact looks like cold weather,” he said.

That he said should generate more snow — something the western half of the Prairies is in dire need of, due to dry conditions going into fall.

“It’s probably going to be a snowy winter again, but I doubt it will be as snowy as last year,” Kehler said.

The Canadian Drought Monitor rated a lot of Alberta and Saskatchewan as being abnormally dry or in moderate or severe drought as of Sept. 30. One pocket centred on Swift Current, Sask. is in extreme drought; southern and northern areas of western Manitoba were abnormally dry.

Kehler also raised the strong likelihood of a major storm for the eastern Prairies by the end of the week of Nov. 6-12. After that, he expects active weather to calm down for a little while.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The latest seasonal forecast from the government agency, released Tuesday, calls for a 40 to 80 per cent chance of below normal temperatures from June through August across all of the agricultural regions of Manitoba, with the cool temperatures spilling into eastern Saskatchewan as well.

Western Saskatchewan and most of Alberta, aside from the Rocky Mountains, are forecast to see normal summer temperatures.

Meanwhile, there’s a 50 to 70 per cent chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of Ontario across to the Atlantic provinces, according to the report.

From a precipitation standpoint, normal rainfall is expected across most of the major agricultural regions of the country, aside for a few pockets in southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Alberta with a 40 per cent chance of above-normal moisture.

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That does not mean the world would be crossing the long-term warming threshold of 1.5 C (2.7 F), which scientists have set as the ceiling for avoiding catastrophic climate change.

But a year of warming at 1.5 C could offer a taste of what crossing that long-term threshold would be like.

“We are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement,” said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas, referring to climate accords adopted in 2015.

The likelihood of exceeding 1.5 C for a short period has been rising since 2015, with scientists in 2020 estimating a 20 per cent chance and revising that last year up to 40 per cent. Even one year at 1.5 C of warming can have dire impacts, such as killing many of the world’s coral reefs and shrinking arctic sea ice cover.

In terms of the long-term average, the average global temperature is now about 1.1 C warmer than the pre-industrial average.

“Loss and damage associated with, or exacerbated by, climate change is already occurring, some of it likely irreversible for the foreseeable future,” said Maxx Dilley, deputy director of climate at the WMO.

World leaders pledged under the 2015 Paris Agreement to prevent crossing the long-term 1.5 C threshold — measured as a multi-decadal average — but so far have fallen short on cutting climate-warming emissions. Today’s activities and current policies have the world on track to warm by about 3.2 C by the end of the century.

“It’s important to remember that once we hit 1.5 C, the lack of science-based emissions policies mean that we will suffer worsening impacts as we approach 1.6 C, 1.7 C, and every increment of warming thereafter,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

— Gloria Dickie is a climate and environment correspondent for Reuters in London, England.

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The latest seasonal forecast from the government agency, released Monday, calls for a 40-50 per cent chance of below-normal temperatures from March through May for most of the three Prairie provinces, with only a pocket of southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta expected to see normal temperatures.

That same pocket is forecast to see below-normal precipitation during the same time frame, with the majority of the Prairies to see average moisture.

The Maritimes and Quebec are also forecast to see below-normal temperatures, with most of Ontario in the normal range.

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“[But] not as cold as it has been for most of the winter,” he added.

Much of January and February have been highlighted by temperatures well below normal. On top of that, wind chills on numerous days made it feel like -30 C or colder.

Kehler said he expects March to be warmer than the last couple of months, but with daytime highs still slightly below normal.

As for the snowpack on the Prairies, he said it’s likely to remain in place for the next few weeks at the very least.

“It will depend on the weather pattern. If we suddenly warm up, that snow could begin to melt rather quickly. But if we stay in this colder pattern, we may not see this snow disappear until April,” he said.

Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather for MarketsFarm, noted snowfall across the Prairies has varied quite a bit.

A large swath across the region has snowfall close to normal, but there is a large pocket taking up most of the southern half of Alberta that received much less than normal.

In contrast, Burnett pointed to numerous small pockets of above-normal snowfall — Winnipeg and the surrounding area being one of them. Other locales with more snow than usual can be found well north of Saskatoon and Edmonton.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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