Solar energy produces more than twice as much heat gain on the south wall of a bin in spring as it does during the summer. That, in addition to the solar heat gain on a bin roof, can create an environment conducive to grain spoilage. A 10 F temperature increase reduces the allowable storage time of grain by about half. The storage time of corn at 17 per cent moisture, for one example, is reduced from about 130 days at 50 F (10 C) to about 75 days at 60 F (16 C) and 45 days at 70 F (21 C).

Hellevang recommends periodically running aeration fans during the spring to keep grain below 40 F (4 C) as long as possible during spring and early summer if the grain is dry. In northern states, night air temperatures are normally near or below 40 F in May.

Bin vents can become blocked with frost and ice when the fan is operated at temperatures near or below freezing, which may damage the roof. Leave the fill and access door open as a pressure relief valve when operating the fan at temperatures near or below freezing.

Cover the fan when it is not operating to prevent warm air from blowing into the bin or being drawn into the bin due to a chimney effect and heating the stored grain to temperatures more prone to spoilage and insect infestations. Hellevang also recommends ventilating the top of the bin to remove the solar heat gain that warms the grain. Provide air inlets near the eaves and exhausts near the peak so the top of the bin can ventilate due to warm air rising — similar to what occurs in an attic — or use a roof exhaust fan.

Hellevang advises stored grain should be monitored closely to detect problems early. Grain temperature should be checked every two weeks during the spring and summer. A temperature increase may indicate a storage problem. Grain also should be examined for insect infestations. Check the moisture content of stored grain to determine if it needs to be dried. Remember to verify the moisture content measured by a meter has been adjusted for grain temperature. Also, remember that moisture measurements of grain at temperatures below about 40 F may not be accurate. Verify the accuracy of the measurement by warming the grain sample to room temperature in a sealed plastic bag before measuring the moisture content.

Some in-bin cables estimate grain moisture content by measuring the temperature and air relative humidity and then calculating the grain moisture content based on grain equilibrium moisture content equations. The measured moisture may be one to 1.5 per cent different than the true moisture content, so it is a tool that should be verified with another moisture content measurement method.

Corn needs to be dried to 13-14 per cent moisture for summer storage to prevent spoilage. Soybeans should be dried to 11-12 per cent, wheat to 13 per cent and barley to 12 per cent. The allowable storage time for 13 per cent moisture soybeans is less than 100 days at 70 F.

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“We’ve had a slow start to spring,” said Saskatchewan Pulse Growers (SaskPulse) executive director Carl Potts. “It’s still a bit of time before seeding would normally start across the province. If temperatures end up being around normal, then I would expect seeding to start about on time.

“But it really remains to be seen what the weather would be like over the next three weeks or so.”

Potts anticipates a 10 per cent decline in seeded area for peas, as well as a five per cent reduction for lentils, which he attributed to competition with other crops and root disease in some areas.

On the other hand, Potts expects a large rise in chickpea acres due to strong prices — “probably something (like a) 30 to 35 per cent increase in chickpea area overall,” he said.

Some pulse growers in Saskatchewan may have to wait a while until the large snowpack fully melts before hitting the fields.

“We also know that in Western Canada, growers can, with good weather, seed the vast majority of their crop in approximately three weeks’ time starting in May,” Potts said. “At this point, we don’t really have any concerns about seeding. It’s good to see the moisture and we’ll see how the next few weeks shape out.”

Despite a slowdown in pea exports, Potts believes the pulse industry in Saskatchewan is on track to meet its export estimates and demand for pulses is growing and staying strong.

“Prices have come off as they have for some of the other crops more recently, with lower prices particularly for yellow peas and other major crops like wheat and canola,” he said.

“For the most part, I think crop rotations and cropping plans will be fairly locked in. There are always some swing acres that could change depending on the spring or depending on market conditions. But farmers are pretty locked into their crop rotations overall.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre on Wednesday projected a major risk of flooding on the Red River and low to moderate risk of flooding in most Manitoba basins in its March spring outlook. Spring flood risk largely depends on weather conditions from now until the spring melt.

At this time, the centre advises that the flood risk has increased to major on the Red River. The flood risk is low to moderate in the Interlake region along the Fisher and Icelandic rivers, and along the Assiniboine River. The risk of spring flooding is generally low along several other rivers including the Souris, Roseau, Rat and Pembina rivers. Water levels are expected to remain below community and individual flood protection levels.

There is also a low risk of flooding for most other Manitoba basins including the Saskatchewan River, Whiteshell lakes area and northern Manitoba. With the exceptions of Dauphin Lake and Lake St. Martin, most Manitoba lakes, including Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba, are projected to remain within operating ranges after the spring run-off.

As in many other years, the risk of flooding could change in any of the basins depending on weather conditions between now and the spring melt.

A contractor for Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure has completed ice-cutting and breaking work along the Red and Icelandic rivers to reduce ice jam-related flooding. Ice-cutting and breaking work were not undertaken this spring on the Assiniboine River, along the Portage Diversion, due to a lower risk of ice jam-related flooding.

The centre also reports that operation of the Red River Floodway is expected this spring to reduce water levels within Winnipeg. Operation of the Portage Diversion is also anticipated to prevent ice jamming on the Assiniboine River east of Portage la Prairie and control river levels in Winnipeg and areas along the Assiniboine River downstream of Portage la Prairie.

The province, local authorities and First Nation communities are continuing to prepare for spring flooding. This includes ice-cutting and breaking on the Red and Icelandic rivers, review of existing emergency response plans, information sharing, and preparation of resources used in flood response.

The March 2023 spring flood outlook report is available online.

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Spring road restrictions set axle weight limits for vehicles moving on certain roads to reduce the damage heavier loads can cause during the spring thaw period. Grain and equipment movement can both be affected by the spring road bans, as drivers may need to find alternate routes or haul smaller loads.

The duration of the restrictions will depend on the local weather conditions, but typically last through April and into May.

In Manitoba, spring road bans are set to come into effect on Friday, March 17, according to a provincial order.

The winter weight season in neighbouring Saskatchewan is set to expire on March 14, which will reduce the tonnage allowed on roads.

Alberta has yet to report the official start of road restrictions in the province, but typically sees its first weight limits for the southern areas of the province in mid-March.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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The federal department on Tuesday issued its temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts, which also called for normal precipitation for most of the region.

“The forecast is really neutral for the Prairies, with ‘normal’ temperatures forecast for April, May and June,” Bruce Burnett, MarketsFarm’s director of markets and weather, said Tuesday..

Temperature-wise, ECCC projected below-normal weather for British Columbia and parts of western Alberta. To the east, much of Ontario is expected to run above normal, with most of the southern portion being normal to above normal. Growing areas of Quebec are expected to be near normal with the Maritimes to be near normal.

“The main driver of the forecast is likely the transition of the La Nina into the neutral phase over the forecast period,” Burnett said.

As for precipitation over the same time frame, ECCC has not called for any growing areas in Canada to receive any amounts above normal. However, southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan are projected to receive below-normal precipitation, as are Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick. That left the remainder of Canada’s growing areas likely to get normal levels of rain or snow over the coming months.

“The lower-than-normal precipitation probability in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan is a concern as this was the driest region going into the fall,” Burnett said.

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“While there have been substantial improvements to drought conditions across Western Canada since last summer (particularly in British Columbia, southern Manitoba and the northern agricultural regions of Saskatchewan and Alberta), many of these areas remain extremely vulnerable to drought going forward, as a result of low soil moisture reserves and depleted water supplies,” AAFC said in its report for the period ending March 31.

“An extended dry period this spring or summer would impact crops and pastures quicker and more severely as a result,” AAFC added.

“The main story across the Prairies for March was one of drought improvement, however degradation still took place in a few areas,” the report said. Parts of southern Alberta saw the area facing extreme drought conditions expand during the month.

However, northern areas of the Peace River region through to the southeastern corner of Manitoba saw better than normal precipitation over the winter months. Much of southern Manitoba was out of the drought zone, although western parts of the province remain dry.

Spring runoff helped alleviate dryness concerns in parts of southern Saskatchewan, according to the report. However, the region remains vulnerable.

The outlook for the next month calls for improvement across much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, while western Alberta is forecast to see no change with worsening conditions in some pockets.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The latest seasonal forecast from the government agency, released Monday, calls for a 40-50 per cent chance of below-normal temperatures from March through May for most of the three Prairie provinces, with only a pocket of southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta expected to see normal temperatures.

That same pocket is forecast to see below-normal precipitation during the same time frame, with the majority of the Prairies to see average moisture.

The Maritimes and Quebec are also forecast to see below-normal temperatures, with most of Ontario in the normal range.

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The La Niña weather pattern, characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has a 67 per cent chance of persisting from March through May this year, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said.

The CPC, in its monthly forecast, estimated a 51 per cent chance of a transition to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions during the April-June period.

ENSO-neutral conditions refer to periods in which neither El Niño nor La Niña is present, often coinciding with the transition between the two weather patterns, according to the center.

The El Niño pattern brings a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years, and is the opposite of La Niña.

Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said the La Nina phenomenon is continuing and that there is an 80 per cent chance it will prevail through the end of the Northern Hemisphere winter and an 80 per cent chance the conditions will end in spring.

— Reporting for Reuters by Bharat Govind Gautam in Bangalore.

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Though the winter nutrient ban has been lifted, the province cautioned producers to “assess current weather conditions and periodically check weather forecasts” if they’re applying anytime between now and April 11.

“Nutrients should not be applied in instances where the weather outlook is unfavourable,” the province said — for example, “a forecast of snow or an appreciable amount of rainfall that would result in runoff.”

All other manure management regulations are still in effect, the province added, such as the ban on applications on “sensitive lands along waterways” and on lands classified as Nutrient Management Zone N4.

Typically, the province’s ban on winter application of nitrogen and phosphorus, including manure, is in place between and including Nov. 10 of one year and April 10 the following year — with variances where conditions allow.

The regulation was put in place in 2008 as application of nutrients onto frozen or snow-covered soils “results in an increased risk of nutrient runoff” into Manitoba waterways, which in turn increases algal blooms in Lake Winnipeg and elsewhere. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Meanwhile, dry conditions are expected to continue across the Prairies.

AccuWeather’s report forecasts below-normal temperatures for B.C. and western Alberta going into spring. That could delay the snowpack from melting, leading to an increased risk of flooding.

“The result of this expected weather pattern will be above-normal snowpack and river levels that may lead to a higher-than-usual threat for spring flooding due to excessive runoff and ice jams in B.C. and western Alberta by late spring and into early summer,” AccuWeather meteorologist Brett Anderson said in a news release.

Anderson, a specialist in long-range forecasting for the private weather service, explained there are two storm tracks, with one helping stir up storms across B.C. and elsewhere in Canada, something quite typical during a La Nina.

The other track will veer south into the northern U.S. Plains, taking away opportunities for precipitation from the Prairies. In turn, that’s expected intensify the current dry conditions across the Prairies.

“However, it is still very early and conditions can change quickly in early spring, thus additional updates on the spring flood risk are likely through the season,” Anderson added.

There could be a risk of wildfires in southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, he cautioned, should the dryness become quite severe during the spring.

For Ontario and Quebec, as well as Atlantic Canada, AccuWeather forecasts above-normal precipitation during the spring. While that will replenish depleted soil moisture levels in a number of parts of Eastern Canada, the likelihood of more precipitation could result in flash flooding.

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