Some 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas also transits the Strait, and its near closure, combined with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, have forced regional energy facilities to halt output.

That has, in turn, shut fertilizer plants in the Gulf and beyond, just as farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare for spring planting, leaving little margin for delays.

The global market for urea was already struggling with tight supplies prior to the current conflict, with Europe forced to cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas and China restricting fertilizer exports, including urea, in order to ensure domestic supplies.

Which fertilizer plants have halted or cut output?

Qatar Energy has halted output at the world’s largest urea plant after shutting down gas output following attacks on its LNG facilities.

In India, a massive global urea market, three urea plants have cut output as LNG supplies from Qatar have plummeted.

India, home to nearly a fifth of the world’s population, buys more than 40 per cent of its urea and phosphatic fertilizers from the Middle East, and recently agreed to buy 1.3 million tons of urea, some of which might not arrive on time.

Bangladesh has shut four of its five fertilizer factories, while Australia’s Wesfarmers has warned of possible shipment delays, including for urea.

Egypt, which supplies eight per cent of globally traded urea, could struggle to produce nitrogen fertilizer after Israel declared force majeure on gas exports to the country, Scotiabank and Rabobank analysts say.

Brazil is almost 100 per cent reliant on urea imports — nearly half of which transits the Strait of Hormuz.

In the U.S., farmers are reporting sold out retailers, with the country about 25 per cent short of fertilizer supplies for this time of year.

Globally, urea exports are set to fall to about 1.5 million metric tons in March, compared to 3.5 million without China’s supplies, or 4.5 to 5 million with China, according to Scotiabank.

How has the conflict affected prices?

Urea export prices in the Middle East have jumped about 40 per cent to just above $700 per metric ton (C$958) on March 13 from just under $500 (C$685) before the war, according to Argus.

In the U.S., fertilizer prices have surged as much as 32 per cent since the conflict began.

Analysts say prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea could roughly double if the war drags on.

Given the Middle East’s dominant market share, no producer can quickly make up for the lost supply, according to Chris Lawson, analyst at CRU.

Russia, the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, is facing supply disruptions due to Ukraine drone strikes, while China, despite ample capacity, is restricting exports, he said.

— Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz, Sybille de La Hamaide and Dewi Kurniawati

The post Gulf fertilizer plants go dark as Iran war chokes global supply ahead of spring planting appeared first on Grainews.

Helping things along was the rainfall that varied across the province. The areas around Porcupine Plain and Foam Lake received 73 to 83 millimeters, the department reported. That also improved Saskatchewan’s topsoil moisture levels, with four per cent rated as surplus, 91 per cent was adequate and four per cent was short.

Field pea planting was virtually complete at 99 per cent, followed closely behind by lentils at 97 per cent. Meanwhile, chickpeas were a little further back at 90 per cent finished. Saskatchewan Ag said 18 per cent of the pulses were at the pre-emergent stage, with 68 per cent at the seedling stage and 14 per cent at the vegetative stage.

Of the cereals, spring wheat led at 96 per cent seeded, with durum a point back. Barley was next at 92 per cent complete, with oats at 88 per cent and triticale at 84 per cent. The department reported 26 per cent of spring cereals were at the pre-emergent stage, 57 per cent were at the seedling stage and 17 per cent were tillering.

As for the winter cereals, 48 per cent reached the tillering stage, with 25 per cent at stem elongation, 20 per cent at flag leaf and seven per cent were heading.

The oilseeds saw canary seed at 94 per cent finished with canola at 93 per cent, flax at 92 per cent and mustard at 87 per cent. Saskatchewan reported 43 per cent of the canola and mustard were at the pre-emergent stage, 54 per cent was at the seedling stage and three per cent at the rosette stage.

Regionally, planting reached 96 per cent complete in Saskatchewan’s southeast and southwest, with the northwest at 93 per cent done. A point behind that were the east-central, west-central and northeast regions of the province.

As seeding wound down, more producers were spraying their crops when the weather permitted.

In terms of damage, wind, frost and hail led to some minor issues. Flea beetles and cutworms were being dealt with while grasshoppers and gophers continued to be monitored.

The post Planting in Saskatchewan on the verge of completion appeared first on Grainews.

The central, eastern and Interlake regions received upwards to 36 to 39 millimeters of rain last week, while the northwest and southwest of the province got as much as 18 to 20 mm. Manitoba Ag noted that all regions of the province have accumulated in excess of 100 per cent of their normal precipitation since May 1 with a number of areas over 150 per cent.

Among the spring cereals, wheat planting in Manitoba was 94 per cent complete, with barley at 88 per cent and oats close behind at 87 per cent. Corn reached 95 per cent finished and early planted corn was at the V3 stage. Fall rye and winter wheat ranged from stem elongation to booting, with some rye heading.

Field peas led the pulses at 97 per cent seeded, with some of the crops at the three to five node stage. Dry beans were about two-thirds planted.

Of the oilseeds, soybean planting advanced to 82 per cent done, with some fields at unifoliate stage. Canola was next at 71 per cent complete with some of the crop at cotyledon to two true leaves. Flax reached 64 per cent finished and sunflowers at 53 per cent done, with some of the latter at the cotyledon to first true leaf stage.

Pastures and hayfields saw a good deal of growth during the week, with reports of standing water. Producers placed more cattle on pastures.

Bromes and ryegrasses were tillering, and tame hay grew as much as 16 inches while the alfalfa was about 14 inches tall.

The post Manitoba farmers make good progress despite rain appeared first on Grainews.

Major crop planting in Alberta advanced 19.6 points at 77.3 per cent, 6.4 points behind the five-year average and 4.4 points behind the 10-year average. While a pair of regions did not seed half of their acres by May 21, all regions were at least 70 per cent finished as of May 28. The Peace region made the most progress at 86.2 per cent, with southern Alberta at 83.6 per cent. Central Alberta was 75.5 per cent complete, the North West was at 71.6 per cent and the North East was at 70.7 per cent.

Dry pea planting was 93.8 per cent finished in Alberta as of May 28, with the North East region at 99 per cent. Spring wheat seeding was 88.7 per cent complete province-wide, while barley was at 72.2 per cent. Canola had two-thirds of its acres seeded, while oats were at 56.4 per cent.

Meanwhile, crop emergence doubled from the past week to more than 40 per cent, slightly ahead of the five- and 10-year averages.

Much of the province saw light scattered showers during the week, only amounting to a few millimetres. Some areas around the Rocky Mountains in the North West and Central regions received 30 to 40 mm.

Despite the rain, surface soil moisture slightly declined across Alberta, but was still above historical averages. The province was rated 77.6 per cent good to excellent, above the 64.3 per cent five-year average and the 66.2 per cent 10-year average. The North East region was rated the best at 91.1 per cent good to excellent, while the Peace region was the worst at 64.3 per cent.

For sub-surface soil moisture, Alberta was rated at 66 per cent. The best rating was found in the Peace region at 82 per cent despite a five-point decline from the past week, while the worst rating was in South region at 55 per cent.
Provincial pasture growth conditions improved two points to 70.1 per cent good to excellent, more than 19 points ahead of the five-year average. The best rating was in the Central region at 83.9 per cent good to excellent, while the Peace region was at 40.2 per cent. Tame hay growth conditions were rated at 68 per cent good to excellent across Alberta, three points more than the week before. The best rating was in the Central region at 85 per cent good to excellent, while the worst was in the Peace region at 41 per cent.

The post Alberta Crop Report: Progress made, still behind historical averages appeared first on Grainews.

Planting progress came in at 77 per cent complete, which was up by 21 points from the previous week, but short of the five-year average of 91 per cent done for this time of year. Crop emergence was reported as excellent to good condition and topsoil moisture showed improvement over the past year.

The southeast was the furthest advanced in seeding progress at 84 per cent complete with the northwest trailing at 68 per cent complete.

On a crop-by-crop basis, field peas and lentils were 92 per cent and 91 per cent complete respectively. Chickpeas and soybeans were reported at 78 per cent and 51 per cent. For cereal crops, durum and spring wheat were the furthest ahead at 87 per cent and 84 per cent respectively. Barley was at 76 per cent followed by oats at 67 per cent. For oilseeds, mustard was 78 per cent followed by canola at 71 per cent and flax at 67 per cent. Perennial forages were at 49 per cent complete.

Rainfall was variable across the province with many producers in the northern regions experiencing increased amounts. Overall, topsoil moisture improved over the year. Cropland topsoil moisture was three per cent surplus, 89 per cent adequate and eight per cent short. Hayland topsoil moisture was two per cent surplus, 85 per cent adequate and 13 per cent short. Pasture topsoil moisture was very similar with two per cent surplus, 83 per cent adequate, 13 per cent short and two per cent very short.

Farmers reported good crop emergence across the province. Of the crops that have emerged, the majority are reported in good-to-excellent condition. Lentils were rated 96 per cent good-to-excellent, Field peas at 94 per cent good-to-excellent and chickpeas at 98 per cent.

For cereal crops, winter wheat was estimated at 92 per cent excellent and 72 per cent good-to-excellent, durum at 95 per cent and spring wheat at 91 per cent.

For oilseed crops, mustard was rated at 90 per cent good-to-excellent, flax 88 per cent and canola at 87 per cent.

Crop damage was minor with a few producers reporting light frost and areas with excessive water, but limited crop damage. producers taking control measures. Some regions have observed grasshoppers hatching but no current reports of crop damage. Flea beetle and cutworm activity was also noted.

Many producers anticipate that seeding will wrap up within the next week if the weather permits. Producers were also busy moving cattle to pasture, spraying, rock picking and land rolling.

The post Saskatchewan seeding progress running behind average appeared first on Grainews.

Provincial seeding progress advanced to 64 per cent as of May 28, 17 points more than the previous week. The figure was also two points ahead of the same week last year, but 13 points behind the five-year average.

Pea planting was nearly complete at 96 per cent, while spring wheat planting was 87 per cent complete. Corn and barley planting were 80 and 79 per cent complete, respectively, while oats were at 76 per cent completion. Slightly more than half of soybean acres were seeded at 55 per cent, while canola and sunflowers were both at 41 per cent. Dry beans were nearly one-quarter seeded at 24 per cent.

Winter cereal fertilizer applications were completed with 85 to 95 per cent field survival. Cereals in the Central region were the most advanced as early-planted crops were in the five-leaf stage.

A weather system on May 24 and 25 brought large amounts of precipitation to all growing regions in Manitoba, exceeding 100 per cent normal precipitation since May 1. Winkler received the most moisture at 86.7 millimetres during the week, while The Pas was the driest at 6.0 mm.

In terms of percentage, Eden in southwest Manitoba has been the wettest place in Manitoba this season, getting 142 mm at 303 per cent normal precipitation. The two driest places were Ruthenia in the northwest at 47 mm for 113 per cent and Oakburn in the southwest at 46 mm for 114 per cent.

The rains helped hay fields and pasture growth maintain their good shape with standing water in some areas. Tame hay growth was up to 16 inches, while alfalfa stands were up to 12 inches tall and dense.

Many cattle operations had their animals fully on pasture, but some cattle were moved to certain pastures in order to avoid mud. Calving and supplementary feeding were ongoing, with vaccinations underway. Dugouts were full and water levels adequate.

The post Manitoba crop report: Seeding continues despite large rainfall appeared first on Grainews.

By region, farmers in the southwest were furthest along at 64 per cent done, followed by those in the northwest at 63 per cent and the southeast at 61 per cent. The east-central region reached 54 per cent complete, with the northeast at 48 per cent and the west-central at 47 per cent.

Crop development in Saskatchewan was 83 per cent normal to ahead for fall cereals, with spring cereals and pulses at 71 per cent, and oilseeds at 69 per cent. While the emergence of the early seeded crops was reported to be good, there have been a few instances of cutworms, wireworms and flea beetles. Most of the crop damage was caused by frost, minor flooding, wind, and hail.

Farmers in most parts of Saskatchewan contended with rain at some point during the week, with some areas receiving up to 58 millimeters. The rain continued to improve topsoil moisture conditions with that of cropland at six per cent surplus, 89 per cent adequate and five per cent short. The hayland came in at three per cent surplus, 85 per cent adequate and 11 per cent short and one per cent very short.

Pastureland was also at three per cent surplus, while 83 per cent was adequate, 12 per cent short and two per cent very short. As well, the pastures rated 67 per cent good to excellent.

The post Saskatchewan sees good seeding progress, but behind average pace appeared first on Grainews.

Seeding was 32.5 per cent complete for major crops in Alberta as of May 14, compared to 15.7 per cent one week earlier. While the rains hindered planting progress in the eastern half of the province, the moisture will benefit crops in the long-term. Meanwhile, northwestern Alberta and the Peace region saw little to no rainfall, but seeding there continued its rapid pace.

Planting in the south region was the most advanced at 50.2 per cent complete, up 13.5 points from last week. The Peace region gained 22.4 points at 40.7 per cent, while central Alberta was at 29.5 per cent, up from 14.1 per cent the week before. Northwest Alberta completed 21.9 per cent of its seeding compared to just 3.9 per cent the previous week, while planting in northeastern Alberta has fallen behind the most at 18.9 per cent, up from 2.7 per cent seven days earlier.

Alberta’s dry pea crop completed 62.1 per cent of seeding, compared to 44.9 per cent for spring wheat, 32.6 per cent for barley, 15 per cent for oats and 14.9 per cent for canola. Emergence of major crops was at six per cent, compared to the five- and 10-year averages of three per cent. In southern Alberta, emergence was at 15 per cent.

Except for the Peace region, the recent precipitation helped replenish surface soil moisture across Alberta, rating 71.8 per cent good to excellent, better than the previous week’s figure of 58.1 per cent and above the five-year (58 per cent) and 10-year averages (63 per cent). Surface soil moisture in northeastern Alberta was at 88 per cent good to excellent, up 12 points from last week, while the Peace region was at 42 per cent, down six points from the week before.

As for subsoil moisture, the province was rated at 58 per cent good to excellent, 58 per cent at around the five- and 10-year averages. While southern Alberta made the biggest improvement at 14 points, only 50 per cent was rated good to excellent compared to 71 per cent in the northeast.

Pasture growth conditions were rated 53.3 per cent good to excellent across the province, up from the 46.4 per cent five-year average. Central Alberta was rated the highest at 60 per cent, while the northwest went from zero per cent to 33 per cent in one week. Conditions in the Peace region were the worst at 31 per cent.

Tame hay conditions were four points better than the five-year average at 47 per cent good to excellent with the best in central Alberta at 67 per cent and the worst in the Peace region at 31 per cent.

The post Alberta Crop Report: Much-needed moisture replenishes province appeared first on Grainews.

“Lairds are seeing a stock shortage in the short term, causing a surge in old crop prices, now sitting at 81 to 82 cents per pound FOB farm,” stated Sargsyan, noting below average yields in 2023 also contributed to the decline in stocks.

In the Prairie Ag Hotwire compilation of prices from across Western Canada, as of Feb. 26, Laird lentils added two cents ranged from 57 to 78 cents/lb. delivered depending on the size.

Although Eston lentils climbed higher earlier in February, most recently they gave up two cents, at 52.5 to 70/lb. delivered. The Richleas as well saw increases during the month, but stood unchanged this week at 54 to 75 cents/lb.

The red Crimson lentils slipped back earlier in February but turned steady to lower. This week, the number 3’s and X3’s were down a penny at 25 to 32 cents/lb., while the number 1’s and 2’s held firm at 33 to 36 cents.

“On old crop, red lentils are sliding back as the Australian supply/pricing has pressured the Canadian market. We see old crop red lentils offered regularly, where the producer expectation is closer to 40 cents/lb. FOB farm,” commented Sargsyan.

As February wound down, thoughts began to turn towards spring planting. Given the above normal temperatures across the Prairies this winter along with a lack of snow, there were concerns of which crops to plant.

“Although lentils are a good choice in drier areas, producers should be conscious of soil types and disease such as aphanomyces,” said Sargsyan.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

The post Pulse weekly outlook: Mixed price movement for Prairie lentils appeared first on Grainews.

The recent conditions have been a welcome surprise as I was bracing for a La Niña winter, which usually means colder and snowier conditions across Western Canada. Were these weather patterns odd?

I found the answer to that question last week. On January 14, I had the opportunity to host the webinar Markets Outlook Summit: 2021 Overview, presented by MarketsFarm, and the first of a four-part series. MarketsFarm director of weather and markets information, Bruce Burnett, kicked off the session by looking at La Niña and how it has affected weather conditions in Western Canada and globally.

He’s the first to point out there has been mixed signals — some agencies have officially declared a La Niña event while others have not. Also, the exceptionally mild temperatures from late November to mid-January, especially in Western Canada, have not been typical for a La Niña winter. For example, temperatures in December were 3 to 5 C above average and lots of areas of the Prairies saw new average highs for that month. This is exactly the opposite of what we would expect for La Niña conditions in Western Canada, said Burnett.

There was a large storm that moved from northern Montana through southern Alberta and most of Saskatchewan, but largely missed Manitoba and southeastern areas of Saskatchewan. “That’s going to play out in terms of how we’re seeing the precipitation recovery during the winter,” said Burnett.

Precipitation has been close to normal in the western Prairies this winter. However, the eastern Prairies are extremely dry after receiving near-record-low precipitation during December. For winter precipitation, from November 1 through January 11, Burnett also noted the following:

• Above-normal precipitation in areas throughout most of Saskatchewan;
• Higher-than-normal precipitation in areas concentrated north of Saskatoon and a little bit southwest of Saskatoon;
• Drier-than-normal areas included northern Alberta, especially northeastern Alberta, into the southern Peace region as well as in Manitoba, which has been the driest region so far this winter.

There’s significant concern the eastern third of Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba doesn’t have adequate snow cover. Also, the warmer temperatures mean higher evaporation rates than are normal at this time of year because snow cover would normally prevent that, said Burnett.

“Moisture is going to be the theme for the upcoming year, and the areas we’re most concerned about are in the eastern Prairies,” he said.

During last year’s growing season, from April to October, most of Alberta, especially northern Alberta and parts of the northern Peace River region, received above-average precipitation. Those areas will still have some subsoil moisture levels. In southern Alberta, there was significant production and good crops in many regions, so most of the soil moisture was used up, added Burnett. That area will be going into this winter with drier-than-normal soil reserves, so that’s another area to keep an eye on.

However, it’s in the critical areas of central through eastern Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba that subsoil moisture levels are very low. And due to the winter precipitation situation, “timely rains will be needed as farmers move into the spring season for planting this year’s crop.”

And what will the conditions be like this spring? “It’s not an ideal forecast for planting this year,” said Burnett. There’s a significant chance for below-normal temperatures to start the spring planting season off, which looks to be concentrated mostly in the northern Prairies.

On the positive side, moisture levels look fairly normal and the only areas that have a significantly higher chance of below-normal precipitation this spring are those along the Alberta-Montana border. “We’re going to see essentially a cooler-than-normal start and I don’t see warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer as long as this La Niña or transition to a neutral stage remains,” said Burnett.

I’ll be focusing on more of his take-home messages about La Niña and the effects on global weather and wheat and durum market outlooks from the webinar in my next few columns. Also, I’ll provide you with take-aways from Mike Jubinville’s presentation on canola and soybean market outlooks. Mike, a senior markets analyst with MarketsFarm, was also a guest speaker at the January 14 webinar.

How’s the soil moisture in your region heading into winter? Drop me a line at kbelanger@farmmedia.com.

Stay well,
Kari

The post Editor’s Column: Below-normal temperatures forecast for spring appeared first on Grainews.