The finding addresses a question that has surfaced in U.S. research and among Prairie growers managing high-pH soils: does choosing a low IDC score come at the cost of yield where chlorosis is not present?

“We didn’t know the answer to this question until just now,” U of M researcher Kristen MacMillan said during a presentation at Ag Days in Brandon.

WHY IT MATTERS: Understanding how variety selection affects yield helps farmers make more confident decisions in challenging soil conditions.

“It’s a highly visual condition,” said MacMillan, who is also Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers’ agronomist in residence.

“We’re choosing varieties based on their visual response, but what is the actual yield correlation to that?”

IDC is a common issue in calcareous, high-pH soils, where iron becomes chemically unavailable to the plant.

The condition causes yellowing between the veins of young soybean leaves, typically appearing in patches and lasting from mid-June into July. While symptoms may only persist for a few weeks, early-season stress can reduce yield potential.

How much yield does IDC cost?

To understand how IDC severity translates into yield loss, MacMillan collaborated with Manitoba Agriculture to analyze six years of data from single-row plots rated annually for IDC response near Winnipeg. Those plots were taken through to harvest to compare visual scores with final yield.

The analysis confirmed that yield declines as IDC scores increase in affected areas.

MacMillan reported a yield loss of roughly 1.5 to 2.8 bushels per acre for every one-point increase in IDC score. In practical terms, a two-point difference between varieties could mean a three- to six-bushel swing in IDC-prone zones.

Is there a yield trade-off?

The more pressing question, however, was whether selecting for low IDC scores sacrifices yield elsewhere in the field.

Many growers report IDC often affects only portions of a field, yet variety decisions are made for the entire field. Research in North Dakota and South Dakota has identified yield trade-offs in some soybean populations, where selecting for IDC tolerance reduced yield under non-IDC conditions.

To test whether that trade-off exists under Manitoba conditions, MacMillan established paired trials in IDC and non-IDC areas of the same field using identical varieties. She also identified a common set of varieties grown over three years to ensure consistency in comparisons.

“What we’re finding is that yield is also negatively correlated with IDC score or not related at all. So this is good news,” she said.

In other words, varieties with strong IDC tolerance performed well in affected areas without yielding less in unaffected parts of the field.

MacMillan also examined whether precision-planting different cultivars in IDC and non-IDC zones would provide an advantage.

Because no yield penalty was detected, splitting varieties within a field offered little benefit in most scenarios. Only in fields almost entirely affected by IDC did a particularly strong cultivar show a measurable advantage.

“If IDC is a constraint in your fields, continue choosing varieties with low IDC score and high yield,” she said.

For growers managing high-carbonate Prairie soils, the data reinforce current practice: selecting IDC-tolerant varieties remains the most reliable defence without sacrificing yield potential where chlorosis never appears.

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Since the 2017 peak, soybean area has dropped, with western Canadian area at 1.49 million acres this year. That drop since 2017 has been mostly due to challenging growing conditions and strong prices for other crops. Although genetic improvement in soybeans has continued over the past seven years, economic conditions have reduced soybean area.

Most of the increase in soybean area has been driven by the development of suitable varieties for the growing conditions in the northern U.S. and southern Prairies. The improvement in genetics has resulted in the expansion of cropped area. Climate change has also played a role in the soybean acreage expansion.

There have been many studies that have examined the changes to the climate in Western Canada over the past couple of decades. A review of the research on climate change in the agricultural growing regions in Canada was conducted by Mapfumo et al. in the Canadian Journal of Plant Science in 2023. The authors examined the research to date of the parameters that are important to producing crops.

Of the factors examined the in the review, the three most critical parameters for soybean production are growing season precipitation, growing season length and air temperatures during the growing season. The research indicates that changes in all three parameters have occurred over the past 100 years.

Some rain must fall

Every farmer knows precipitation is the critical element for producing crops on the Prairies. The weather during the past two growing seasons certainly proves the point that “rain makes grain.” Research indicates that growing season precipitation has increased since 1900. In Alberta’s agricultural region it has increased by 18 mm over the period beginning in 1900. In another study, Prairie rainfall has increased by 39.2 mm over the growing season in the period from 1956 to 1995.

The increase in precipitation is welcome news for soybean production in the coming years. Soybean yields are generally directly related to the amount of moisture received during the growing season. Rains are very critical during August for soybeans, when the crop is going through its reproductive growth stage. The general increase in growing season precipitation should translate to increased precipitation during August.

Change of season

Growing season length is the second most critical factor in producing crops in Western Canada. This is particularly true for soybeans, which are vulnerable to an early-season frost. Western Canada has seen its growing season increase by between three and 12 days, using data from 1920 to 2020.

Frost dates have also changed in Western Canada with the median spring frost earlier by 11.1 days and the fall frost dates were later by 9.4 days. A longer growing season allows soybeans to expand their footprint in the Prairies.

Growing by degrees

The heat experienced over the past two growing seasons has certainly brought temperatures to the forefront in terms of risk to crops. The maximum air temperatures have been increasing by 2.4 to 3.6 C during the period from 1950 to 2010.

The increase in maximum temperatures is probably the largest concern for soybean production in the future. Although temperatures during the growing season are expected to be higher than current levels, soybean yields are not likely to be significantly impacted by the higher temperatures.

The warmer temperatures are also expected to increase the growing degree days (GDD). GDDs have increased by 95 days in the Prairies over the period between 1948 to 2016. Another study in Alberta indicated GDDs increased by 77.5 (6.2 per cent) during the period from 1901 to 2002. The increase in growing degree days is essential in expanding the soybean area in Western Canada.

In conclusion, climate change is expected to expand the soybean growing area in Western Canada. With the increase in area, soybean production in Western Canada during the coming years. Economic factors will play a large role in determining the extent of the acreage expansion. The drop in soybean area over the past five years has been largely due to deteriorating prices for soybeans relative to competing crops.

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The attaché forecast a crop of 51.0 million tonnes for the upcoming marketing year, besting expectations of 49.5 million for 2023/24. The official USDA estimate on Argentina’s current soybean harvest remained 50.0 million tonnes, but either number will be better than the 25.0 million tonnes harvested in 2022/23.

While Argentina’s corn crop has been at the mercy of spiroplasma that’s spread by leafhoppers, the Buenos Aires desk pointed out the disease doesn’t affect soybeans.

However, the attaché cited some concerns about the La Niña, which usually results in less rain for Argentina. Nevertheless the yields are projected to improve to 2.99 tonnes per hectare in 2024/25 from 2.88 presently.

Reports said about a quarter of Argentina’s soybean harvest has been completed, compared to the normal pace of 50 per cent done.

The Buenos Aires desk pegged Argentina’s soybean crush to bump up to 40.0 million tonnes from 39.5 million in 2023/24. Soybean exports are to climb to 7.3 million tonnes from 6.5 million. Ending stocks are projected increase to 10.6 million tonnes from 8.4 million.

The crush is to result in 31.2 million tonnes of soymeal and 7.9 million tonnes of soyoil, up slightly from the 30.8 million and 7.8 million produced in 2023/24. The attaché projected soymeal exports to hold at 27.0 million tonnes in 2024/25, while the carryout is to rise to 3.1 million tonnes from 2.6 million.

Soyoil exports out of Argentina are to 5.3 million tonnes in 2024/25, nudging up from 5.1 million this year. The carryover to is hold at 225,000 tonnes.

Argentina is ranked by the USDA as the world’s third largest producer of soybeans, while also being the largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg

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When the USDA released its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates on Apr. 11, the department kept its estimate on Brazil soybean production for 2023/24 at 155 million. Also that day, Conab issued its monthly report, which trimmed its projection to 146.52 million tonnes from the 146.86 million in March.

Early notions of Brazil soybean output exceeding 160 million tonnes were dashed this marketing year due to severe dryness and heat in the country’s northern half, and extremely wet conditions in the southern half. Those widely different conditions made planting very difficult.

Numerous private consultancies steadily reduced their estimates, with several of them predicting a harvest of less than 150 million tonnes. However, the USDA has remained steadfast with its estimates, indicating it believes the crop is much larger than what most others think it will be.

One of those consultancies expecting a Brazil soybean crop at less than 150 million tonnes has been Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. in Hinsdale, Ill. In his most recent calculations, Cordonnier raised his forecast by two million tonnes, expecting the harvest to come in at 147 million tonnes.

As for the wide difference between the USDA and Conab, Cordonnier said it has been the source of a lot of discussions.

“I think part of the problem is the hot and dry weather in Brazil last October and November. Some of the soybeans were replanted several times or even switched to another crop. So what looked like soybeans on the satellite at the start of the season maybe did not end up as soybeans at the end of the season,” Cordonnier stated.

Also he pointed a difference in soybean acre estimates, with Conab at 111.78 million and the USDA believing there’s more.

“The USDA thinks that Conab has not accounted for the expansion of soybean acreage in northeastern Brazil. They may have a point because maybe the farmers are not reporting all their acreage to the Brazilian government for whatever reason. On the other hand, Conab uses satellite technology to estimate acreage just like the USDA, so why is there a difference of almost two million acres of soybean between the two estimates,” said Cordonnier, adding he’s not sure which agency is correct.

A Conab spokesperson said in an email the agency compiles its data through a variety of methods, including several forecasting models, as well as considering the weather conditions of Brazil’s several states, farmer surveys, past data, and crop tours.

“In relation to the various organizations that carry out harvest research, Conab’s principle is to respect the methodologies applied by these entities, understanding that each method has its specific particularities, suited to the availability of human and financial material and other factors that enable execution of the methodology,” the spokesperson wrote.
USDA oilseed analyst Joanna Hitchner explained why the USDA has produced soybean numbers for Brazil higher than those from Conab.

“When estimating Brazilian crops, USDA uses all available data, including CONAB and Brazil’s state agencies. We review CONAB’s estimates because CONAB shows a complete look at the crops in the country. We also use satellite imagery for yield analysis, weather variables, soil moisture maps, and our post reports in Brazil and other publicly available data,” Hitchner stated.

“The USDA shows larger soybean crops than CONAB across several years because we use a balance sheet approach to reconciling the crop.  After the marketing year is complete, USDA reconciles its crop estimate with final use data for Brazil using official soybean export data reported by SECEX and crush data reported by Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Óleos Vegetais (ABIOVE), the widely accepted source for Brazilian crush data,” she added.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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Dennis Lange said projections indicate there will be 180,000 to 200,000 acres devoted to dry beans in Manitoba this spring. In 2023, 142,300 acres were grown according to Statistics Canada. He estimated the 2023-24 average yield for dry beans in Manitoba to be between 1,800 to 2,000 pounds per acre, down from 2,000 last year and 2,300 in 2022-23.

“The black and pinto beans are going to make up the majority of that increase, with navys, kidneys, (cranberries), pinks and some of those other types mixed into that,” Lange said. “But I think we’ll see more pinto and black acres.”

However, he added that dry conditions would not be the major obstacle preventing the expansion of acres, but rather a lack of seed supply.

“If growers are trying beans, they may be a little bit more limited in the availability on some of the more desirable types of pintos. They may have to start looking at other varieties. Growers will have to start looking pretty hard at finding seed, if they already haven’t done that,” Lange added.

He also said if there is a dry spring, growers will have to pay attention to seeding depth.

“Typically three-quarter to an inch-and-a-half is the desirable planting depth for beans. I like to see beans planted into moisture, but I don’t like to see them planted at two inches. Pushing through that depth can be too challenging for a bean,” Lange said.

Soybean acres are also expected to increase in Manitoba at between 1.8 to two million acres, compared to 1.595 million in 2023-24, according to Lange. He also expects soybeans and dry beans to fill a void left by a potential decline in canola acres due to the oilseed’s recent low prices.

“I think there’s more of a shuffling around of acres between different crops. With dry beans, growers have to be very selective on where they plant their dry beans. They have to make sure the soil type is conducive to good yields and making sure that it will be the right choice for that piece of ground,” Lange added.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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“Yields are the big driver of this whole thing,” stated MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett.

The initial projections from the USDA were based on economic models, past data, weather patterns, and essentially the department’s best estimate. The USDA is scheduled to issue its farmer survey-based projections for 2024/25 at the end of March.

For soybeans, the USDA forecast the national yield to reach 52 bushels per acre in 2024/25, up from the current year’s 50.6. Planted acres were set to rise to 87.5 million compared to 83.6 million in 2023/24, with harvested acres rising to 86.6 million from 82.4 million. That would boost production to 4.505 billion bushels from 4.165 billion.

Total domestic use for U.S. soybeans was projected to bump up to 2.525 billion bushels in 2024/25 from this year’s 2.424 billion. Exports as well are to improve to 1.875 billion bushels from 1.720 billion. That’s to see ending stocks jump to 435 million bushels from 315 million in 2023/24.

As for U.S. corn, the USDA forecast yields to rise to 181 bu./ac. in 2024/25 from 177.3. Planted acres were dropped to 91.0 million from this year’s 94.6 million. Harvest acres fell to 83.1 million from 86.5 million. With that reduced area, production was forecast to slip to 15.040 billion bushels from 2023/24’s 15.342 billion.

At 12.555 billion bushels, total domestic use was nudged up from this year’s 12.455 billion. Exports were little changed with 2.150 billion bushels in 2024/25 from 2.100 billion. This is projected to push up ending stocks to 2.532 billion bushels from 2.172 billion.

U.S. wheat was set to see reduced planted acres in 2024/25 at 47.0 million versus 49.6 million. However, harvested acres are expected to increase to 38.4 million from 37.3 million. Yields were set at 49.5 bu./ac. compared to this year’s 48.6.

There’s to be a slight decrease in wheat’s total domestic use at 1.134 million bushels, from the 1.144 billion in 2023/24. Exports for the coming year were pegged at 775 million bushels versus 725 million. The carryout is to grow to 769 million bushels from 658 million.

“That’s pretty big yields in terms of corn and beans,” commented Burnett, noting the overall effect of the Outlook Forum’s report was bearish.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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“Corn acres are to be down a couple of million from last year and soybean acres are to be up, with larger stocks [for both] as well,” Strommen said.

He pegged U.S. corn acres for 2024/25 at 91 million to 92 million, with soybeans around 87 million. He noted that the planted wheat area was likely to be lower as well at about 40 million acres.

Ending stocks are expected to increase for the most part during the coming crop year. Strommen placed those for corn at about 2.30 billion to 2.40 billion bushels, higher than the USDA’s estimate of 2.17 billion for the 2023/24 crop. For soybeans, the carryover was projected to be 350 million to 400 million bushels compared to this year’s 315 million. The carryout for wheat was projected to go either way at 600 million to 700 million bushels, compared to the 658 million for 2023/24.

Strommen said prices for the three commodities might not continue to grind lower, pointing out “we’re at contract lows pretty early in the season.”

“We’ll have some acre competition. Usually we have some kind of a spring rally,” he continued, noting the U.S. dollar was at or near three month highs which was a major factor in driving prices lower.

Another major factor Strommen pointed to were the very large short positions in corn and wheat, and soybeans to a lesser extent, held by the speculative funds.

“They need some positive news to their minds and reverse their trend to the top side,” he stated.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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A lot depends on the weather and markets, but representatives of the soy and pulse industry believe that nitrogen-fixing crops could become 25 percent of total acres in Manitoba.

“We think there should be a legume once every four years (in the rotation),” Daryl Domitruk, executive director of Manitoba Pulse & Soybean Growers, said at the association’s annual meeting held Feb. 14 during the CropConnect conference in Winnipeg.

“In Manitoba, if we have 10 million acres of annual cropland, that’s 2.5 million acres…. We think that it can be anywhere from 1.75 million acres of soybeans and the remainder made up by dry beans and peas.”

Manitoba is the largest dry bean producer in Canada, mostly pinto, navy and black beans.

The 25 percent share for soybeans and pulse crops hasn’t happened yet because soy acres have been highly volatile over the last seven years.

Acres have ranged from 2.3 million acres in 2017 to 900,000 in 2022 and everywhere in between.

Dry growing seasons, novice growers planting varieties that were ill-suited for their farm and disappointing yields pushed acres down from the high point of 2017.

However, soy proponents say the roller coaster may soon calm down.

“If we get out of these dry (growing) seasons we’ve been having, our acres will go up,” said association chair Melvin Rattai, who farms near Beausejour.

Dennis Lange, a soy and pulse specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, is also predicting that soybean acres will stabilize in the coming years. He expects it to settle out at 1.5 to 1.7 million, with an acreage bump in years with strong prices.

Following the annual meeting in Winnipeg, Rattai said there’s a dedicated group of soy growers that represent about one million acres.

The remaining production depends on weather and markets, which are difficult for farmers to control.

What they can control is investment in research, such as development of varieties with improved tolerance of drought and dry conditions.

“We’re starting to see that already…. The breeders are making some progress,” Rattai said.

“They (the newest varieties) can produce more beans with less water.… They are starting to show up.”

Soybean yields in Manitoba were all over the map from 2017-22. The average yield was around 27 bushels in 2019 and then hit a record of 45 bu. in 2022.

That sort of variability creates too much risk so growers will choose canola or wheat instead of soy.

“We’ve invested a lot in drought-tolerant genetics … to stabilize the yield of soybeans,” Domitruk said.

“With science and diligent research, we can get to a stable yield…. I think a warming climate is going to help us. Soybeans, they thrive in that (heat).”

More research is needed to reduce yield volatility, but another opportunity could lift up the province’s soy industry.

A number of growers are experimenting with identity preserved (IP), or food grade, soybeans, which are used to make tofu and other products.

“I just finished a trade mission to Japan.… That is the high-end market that we need to access,” Rattai said.

“They’re using our beans already. They just want more of the IP beans.”

IP soybeans are not genetically modified and don’t come with herbicide tolerance, making them more challenging to grow.

Last year, Rattai planted IP soybeans for the first time on his farm and the crop was a success.

In comparison to Roundup Ready beans, yields were only five percent lower.

“We had a 55 bushel crop… With the new varieties coming out, they’re going to compete very well with the GMO (beans).”

One unknown for Manitoba soybean acres will be demand from renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) refineries in North America.

Azure Sustainable Fuels, a Calgary company, is looking at building a SAF plant in Portage la Prairie, Man., which could produce 20,000 barrels of aviation fuel per day.

The project is still at the design and engineering stage, but if Azure can raise the funds to build the $1.9 billion plant, demand for soybean and canola oil could skyrocket in Manitoba.

—Robert Arnason writes for the Western Producer from Manitoba.

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“Definitely everyone in the industry is talking less corn and more beans”, said Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Barrington, Ill. “I think your biggest switch in acres will be…in North Dakota and South Dakota. Illinois and Iowa usually stick to their guns with their crop rotations.”

Capinegro said a couple of new soybean facilities are due to come online in the near future, which should improve the crop’s demand. Added to that is the cost of production for corn, which has eroded its profitability. Also, he pointed out the amount of corn farmers still have.

Should any price rallies occur in corn, Capinegro said they would likely not last long as the quantity of corn the farmers sell off would meet demand.

However, one cap on potential soybean acres he noted was the size of the cotton crop in the South.

“It’s a little early to tell, but cotton has been on a nice run to the upside,” Capinegro said.

Two firms have recently published their estimates for U.S. plantings in 2024/25. Farm Futures pegged soybean acres to bump up to 84.95 million, while S&P Global forecast 85.5 million. For corn, Farm Futures projected nearly 92.8 million and S&P called for 93 million.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported soybean plantings in 2023/24 came to 83.6 million acres and those for corn came to 94.6 million. Harvested acres were 82.4 million for soybeans and 86.5 million for corn.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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AAFC included its first estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year in its January supply/demand report, released Jan. 22.

All wheat area was forecast to dip by 1.9 per cent, at 26.50 million acres, as a 2.9 per cent decline in non-durum wheat should more than counter an expected 1.4 per cent increase in durum to 6.12 million acres.

Barley area was forecast to slip by 4.8 per cent on the year, at 6.97 million acres, while area seeded to oats was projected to see the largest change on the year – rising by 27.1 per cent to 3.21 million acres.

AAFC called for a 1.5 per cent decline in canola area, at 21.75 million acres, with flaxseed dropping by 19.0 per cent to 494,000 acres. Meanwhile, soybeans should hold steady at 5.64 million acres.

The major pulse crops were all expected to see increased area this spring, with both peas and lentils forecast to rise by 5.4 per cent at 3.21 million and 3.95 million acres respectively. Chickpea area was forecast at 371,000 acres, which would be up by 7.7 per cent on the year.

Statistics Canada releases its first official seeded area estimates for the upcoming growing season on March 11.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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