In addition, Lerner said rain for the United States Northern Plains and Midwest will depend on the specific area. Also, he stated a full-blown La Nina is very unlikely to occur going into winter.

Lerner explained that second system, forecast for Sept. 18-19, is to bring one to 2.5 inches of rain to much of western Saskatchewan.

“The moisture is really needed, but it’s going to cause some significant delays to field work,” Lerner commented. “A lot of that area that’s going to be impacted received last week’s rain. So some areas are going to be a little too wet.”

The forecaster said the rest of the Prairies will receive less rain.

“The rain will be lighter than normal in eastern Saskatchewan and northwest Manitoba, and probably lighter than normal the Peace country, in the Swan Hills and Slave Lake area in northwest Alberta. Everybody else will be near normal,” he added.

For the U.S., Lerner said the Northern Plains will receive much of the same weather. The central area of Montana will likely get rain while there’s a dry bias for eastern part of the state and extending into the western part of North Dakota.

“We will see a fair amount of moisture in Minnesota and the eastern part of North Dakota,” he added, noting there are to be light showers for South Dakota.

As for the U.S. Midwest, Lerner predicted normal rainfall for the eastern half of the Corn Belt, while the western half is to get “a couple of rounds of precipitation with some disruption of farming activity. But it shouldn’t be so great that they can’t get anything done.”

While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continued to be “aggressive” in predicting a La Nina, Lerner pointed to the outlook from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology which stated there isn’t going to be one.

“I believe we will have La Nina-like conditions, but a full blown La Nina is not my forecast,” he stated.

Lerner expects cooler than normal weather on the Canadian Prairies when winter is close, with southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan to get above normal snowfall, with amounts closer to normal elsewhere.

“I do not think La Nina is going to have a big dominating influence on the world,” he forecast.

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Winter wheat and fall rye harvests neared completion at 94 and 93 per cent respectively. Dry peas followed at 73 per cent done, and lentils at 59 per cent, durum at 39 per cent, barley at 31 per cent and spring wheat at 17 per cent. Of the remaining crops were oats at seven per cent combined, mixed grains at three per cent, canola at one per cent and spring triticale at less than one per cent.

By region, the south was furthest along at 38 per cent complete, with the central at 25 per cent, Peace at 11, northwest at seven per cents and northeast at six per cent.

However, the crops altogether rated 43 per cent good to excellent, 12 points behind the five-year average. The Peace region was at 57 per cent good to excellent, the south at 54 per cent, the northeast at 44 per cent, the northwest at 34 and the central at 22 per cent.

In terms of yields, Alberta’s major crops saw oats tally 69 bushels per acre, with the barley at 59, spring wheat at 46, dry peas at 37 and canola at 33.

The province’s tame hay remained at 27 per cent good to excellent over the week, with the second cut at 36 per cent complete, 14 points ahead of the five-year average.

The report said surface and sub-surface moisture levels remained stable, despite varied rainfall across the province. While the south saw none to two millimeters of precipitation, the northeast, northwest and Peace regions had 10 to 50 mm. On the whole, Alberta’s surface soil moisture levels were 33 per cent good to excellent and the subsurface was at 27 per cent.

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“The lentils are starting to come in,” Mosnaim commented.

He noted that he had yet to hear as to the quality of those already off the fields.

Lentil combining in southeast and southwest Saskatchewan were 10 per cent complete as of Aug. 5, according to that province’s crop report. Harvesting of the pulse was six per cent done in the west-central region, while most of Saskatchewan’s lentil crop was still standing. Over in Alberta, the combining of pulses was expected to get underway this week.

Prices for Laird lentils have been hit the hardest, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. The large green lentils lost 16 to 18 cents per pound over the course of the week ended Aug. 12. Prices ranges from a low of 29 cents/lb. delivered. for number three Lairds to 52 cents for number twos.

Also, French number one lentils were down seven cents on the week at 42.5 to 48 cents/lb. Red lentils pulled back one to four cents at 21 to 31 cents/lb.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected the 2024/25 lentil harvest to reach 2.5 million tonnes in its July report, up from 1.67 million the year before. Ending stocks are expected to jump to 450,000 tonnes versus 50,000 in 2023/24. That would see the stocks-to-use-ratio rise seven-fold to 21 per cent.

AAFC’s next report is scheduled to be released on Aug. 20. Also, Statistics Canada is set to issue its model-based estimates of principal field crops on Aug. 28.

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Glen Loyns, trader and general manager for JGL Commodities in Moose Jaw, Sask., said while the recent heat and dryness has reduced yield expectations, prospects of a decent harvest are still putting pressure on prices.

“It appears that there’s probably going to be an average crop. So that’s putting pressure on some prices. Especially in the United States where you’re seeing pretty favourable growing conditions for both corn and beans,” Loyns said.

However, the warmer and drier-than-normal conditions are now starting to have a real effect on crops.

“The heat is affecting it and it’s running out of moisture. It’s going to be not as good as everyone was expecting a month ago,” Loyns added.

Despite lower corn and wheat prices in the U.S., there isn’t much in the way of grain shipments into Saskatchewan according to Loyns. He added that the feed grain market will wait and see before prices make their move.

“It’s going to be volatile until we get a very good picture of the quality and quantity (of feed grains),” Loyns said.

Delivered feed barley prices in Saskatchewan ranged from C$4.30 to C$4.75 per bushel as of July 31, with the latter steady from last week, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. In Alberta, prices ranged from C$4.15 to C$5.88/bu., down 11 cents from the week before. In Manitoba, prices were C$4.50 to C$4.51/bu., down one cent from the previous week.

For delivered feed wheat, the price range in Saskatchewan was C$6.60 to C$7.75/bu., while in Alberta, prices were from C$6.49 to C$8.16/bu. The maximum prices from both provinces were unchanged from the previous week. In Manitoba, feed wheat was at C$6.79/bu., up two cents.

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Sprague in southeastern Manitoba received the most rainfall at 51.3 millimetres, with Reedy Creek in the northwest region close behind at 44.5 mm. Many communities across the province had no precipitation at all. Since May 1, most areas in Manitoba have exceeded 110 per cent of normal precipitation. Cumulative growing degree days since May 1 was between 95 to 110 per cent of normal for most of the province.

Early fall rye fields may start being harvested this week. Meanwhile, other fall rye and winter wheat fields have dried down while developing into anywhere between the hard dough and physiologically mature stages. Oats and spring wheat fields were in the soft to hard dough stages. The Interlake and northwest regions had their spring wheat crops rated at 80 per cent good to excellent, while the central region was at 75 per cent, the eastern region was at 70 per cent and the southwest was at 65 per cent. Early seeded barley was in the soft dough stage.

The earliest seeded canola crops were already filling pods with flower drop complete. The last canola fields seeded were in full flower while being applied with fungicide. Most sunflowers were in the R4 (inflorescence opening) growth stage, although some were in the R3 (bud elongation) and R5.1 (10 per cent flowering) stages. Aside from flooded and saturated areas, flax fields were in good condition in growth stages 9 (late flowering with most capsules formed) and 10 (white seeds in capsules and lower leaves yellowing).

While some fields, mostly in the eastern region, were adversely affected by excess moisture, peas were in the R4 and R5 stages. The hot humid conditions helped soybeans advance to the R2 and R3 stages, with earlier seeded fields at full pod (R4). However, iron deficiency chlorosis can still be found in some fields.

High humidity in previous weeks prevented curing of hay swaths, as well as reduced hay quality and led growers to use grass instead of hay for bale silage. Drier conditions allowed for progress to be made on first cut beef hay. Hay yields were reported to be between 2.5 to three bushels per acre. However, forage stands may be lacking in quality due to the humid conditions. Most dairy farms have taken a second cut of alfalfa silage, while first cut for tame hay for beef farms were nearly finished. Early seeded silage crops were expected to be harvested this week, while corn silage fields advanced due to high temperatures.

Dugouts for livestock were 85 per cent full while pastures and forage crops have shown strong growth. Pairs of cattle are grazing and bulls were placed with cows, but herds were clumping together to guard themselves from flies.

The Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation (MASC) released its seeded area estimates for numerous crops in Manitoba in the province’s crop report. Canola was the most widely grown crop in Manitoba in 2024 at 3.034 million acres, up 2.3 per cent from the previous year. There were 2.580 million acres of spring wheat seeded in 2024, down 4.7 per cent from last year, while soybeans totaled 1.213 million acres, down 18.9 per cent from 2023.

Oats gained more than 121,000 acres from last year at 403,294 in 2024, while dry beans and field peas had more modest increases. Winter wheat, barley, flax and sunflowers showed declines from the previous year.

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“It’s very odd we are not seeing the reflection in the [feed] market,” stated Susanne Leclerc of Market Master Ltd. in Edmonton.

“Canola is having some positive days, and we are seeing that reflected into the canola market. But feed grains have yet to see that priced into the market,” she lamented.

One of the main reasons for stronger prices Leclerc pointed out is the Prairie weather, with a hike in daily temperatures. Highs were forecast to surpass 30 degrees Celsius across much of the region with scatter thunderstorms at best for precipitation.

She explained that grain buyers placed their focus on cheaper corn in the United States and the prospects there for a very good harvest, while suggesting there might soon be change in feed prices.

“It will be interesting to see come another week or two any of those markets ‘appreciate’ the weather,” Leclerc commented.

Leclerc said Market Master is paying five dollars per bushel for old crop feed barley picked up in the yard in the Edmonton area, with new crop prices 10 to 15 cents/bu. higher. In the Red Deer, area she said barley was C$5.20/bu. for old crop and C$5.30 for new crop.

As for feed wheat, she had only an old crop price of C$7.50/bu., noting that buyers are waiting to see how this year’s wheat turns out.

When it comes to corn imported from the United States, Leclerc said the amount had tapered off a fair bit, but more purchases were now being made. She expects volumes to pick up again, but they won’t be as much as when Prairie barley and wheat were scarce.

Moving grain by truck continued to be something an issue in Alberta, Leclerc noted, but business has been lax. Once the busy season starts towards the end of July, she said there will very likely be problems with availability of drivers and trucks.

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By region ratings were from a low of 68 per cent good to excellent in the northwest to 82 per cent in central Alberta.
Spring wheat and durum led the cereals at 79 per cent good to excellent, with barley close behind at 78 per cent, then oats at 75 per cent. In terms of development the cereals were at the booting stage to stem elongation.

Among the oilseeds, flax and mustard were the best off at 85 per cent good to excellent, while canola lagged at 67 per cent. Most of Alberta’s canola was in rosette development, but in the northeast, it was in the four to six leaf stage.
Dry beans, only grown in Alberta’s south, rated 95 per cent good to excellent, well ahead of the other pulses. Lentils were at 84 per cent good to excellent, followed by chickpeas and dry peas at 75 per cent.

The province’s potatoes were pegged at 85 per cent good to excellent.

Surface soil moisture levels ranked 75 per cent good to excellent, an improvement of 12 points since early May and 14 ahead of the five-year average.

At 43 per cent the Peace River region had the highest excellent for soil moisture in Alberta, with a good to excellent ranking of 89 per cent. Next was the northeast at 82 per cent good to excellent, the northwest at 77 per cent, central at 73 per cent and the south at 68 per cent.

Looking at it the other way around, the south was 31 per cent fair to poor, central at 27 per cent, the northwest at 17 per cent, the northeast at 15 per cent and Peace River at seven per cent.

The province’s pastures rated 74 per cent good to excellent, led by the northwest at 83 per cent and the northeast at 80 per cent. The central region was at 78 per cent good to excellent, with Peace River at 73 per cent and the south at 65 per cent.

The crop report said Alberta’s tame hay was 74 per cent good to excellent. The first cut of hay ranged from three per cent complete in the northeast to 19 per cent in the south, with 56 per cent irrigated hay cut.

With higher temperatures in the weather outlook crop conditions are expected to improve.

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Rainfall amounts over the week ended July 1 ranged anywhere from 10 mm to 99.7 mm, with accumulated growing degree days during the growing season-to-date near or below 95 per cent of normal for most of the province.

Fall rye and winter wheat stands were at the milk to soft dough stage, with fungicide applications for fusarium head blight complete. Rapid winter cereal crop development continued to be noted with crop conditions being good.  Oats and spring wheat were at four leaves to stem elongation. Early seeded spring cereals have moved into flag leaf/head emergence stage.

Canola growth stage ranged from the rosette to flowering stage, while sunflowers were at the V8 to V12 growth stage. Flax crops ranged from growth stage 4 to 5.

Field peas were at the eight to ten node stage, with some fungicide application occurring in the southwest. Soybean growth stage ranged from first to third trifoliate. Overall crop development was delayed with producers looking for warmer conditions to drive the crop forward.

Grass and forages were reportedly growing well and would benefit from warmer weather to make the most of the moisture. Bromes and ryegrasses were heading, and alfalfa was mid flowering. Grasses have headed out, except for big blue stem and little blue stem grasses. It appears to be a promising hay crop ahead, with hopes that the rains will ease during harvesting. Some areas may prove challenging to access due to wet conditions in many spots.

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“The proposed merger brings to the forefront concerns about market concentration and its potential ripple effects on grain producers” said Tara Sawyer, chair of Alberta Grains in a news release today.

“Competition in the grain sector will directly influence concerns producers have raised regarding transparent, consistent, and efficient delivery contracts and market information.”

Early last week, Canada’s Competition Bureau said the proposed merger was “likely to result in substantial anti-competitive effects;” and would likely harm grain markets in the west and canola oil markets in the east.

The groups supported their concerns with a report from University of Saskatchewan researchers Richard Gray, James Nolan and Peter Slade. That report was funded by the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan (APAS), Alberta Grains, SaskBarley and Sask Wheat.

The researchers found that if the merger went forward as planned, the Bunge-Viterra conglomerate would control more than 45 per cent of grain export capacity at the Port of Vancouver. This, they estimated, would increase the price charged for export services by more than 15 per cent and would result in approximately $10-11 billion in loss for Western Canadian grain producers.

The study also found the merger would reduce the economic incentive to build a canola crush facility at Regina. If it was not built, industry crush margins would increase by 16 per cent. If the Regina facility is built, Bunge-Viterra would control 37 per cent of crush capacity.

“This concentration of market shares would increase canola crush margins by 10 per cent … leading to a non-transitory decrease in farm receipts,” the report says.

The total loss would be between $4 billion and $6.5 billion, researchers said.

The merger would have minimal effect on elevator concentration, the researchers found. They found only two small areas where producers would have only one elevator within a 100 km radius.

“However, the calculation … revealed surprising levels of spatial market concentration in elevation, in many cases
made considerably worse by the proposed merger,” the researchers said.

They calculated producer losses of $30 million to $45 million per year.

The groups “strongly urge the Federal Government to consider the impact of the proposed merger on the profitability and sustainability of farmers,” the news release said.

The next steps are for the government to identify any overlapping concerns related to competition and transportation and ask the companies to address them, according to the Competition Bureau’s report.

The two companies, in response to the Competition Bureau’s report, said they were confident the transaction would “yield considerable benefits to Canada.”

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Provincial weather stations picked up hints of moisture in southern Alberta yesterday—with about 1 mm registered at Lethbridge and the St. Mary Reservoir.

Blackie, east of High River, got 11 mm yesterday. Claresholm saw more than 9 mm of precipitation. Further north, Leedale and Rocky Mountain House saw between one and two millimeters of moisture.

In Saskatchewan, Yorkton got about 6 mm of precipitation, as per Environment and Natural Resources Canada. Saskatoon got 9 mm, while North Battleford saw just over 2 mm. Regina registered no precipitation yesterday, though at time of writing a light snow shower was reported to be falling.

The heaviest amounts of precipitation were predicted to fall on northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, said MarketsFarm’s Bruce Burnett in a weather update this morning.

In Manitoba, Winnipeg reported more than 18 mm of precipitation yesterday, Brandon clocked just over 17 mm, and Dauphin saw nearly 23 mm of precipitation, Environment Canada said.

Precipitation over the past week has benefited a limited area of the Prairies, the bulk of which have been drier than normal over the past 30 days.

“The only region reporting a net gain in precipitation was southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. These areas have reported a net gain of 10 to 25 mm. The rest of the Prairies reported 5 to 25 mm below normal precipitation during the month,” Burnett wrote.

“The current system moving across the Prairies will add more general precipitation which will help improve topsoil moisture conditions.”

While overall soil moisture is extremely dry, topsoil moisture for seeding will be mostly adequate in the next couple weeks, Burnett added.

Yesterday, meteorologist Daniel Bezte forecasted sunny-to-partly-cloudy skies to move into Alberta on Wednesday. Manitoba can expect cloudy skies and occasional flurries into Thursday and Friday before skies finally clear.

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