The second area of low pressure developed as forecasted but it stayed further south than expected. A trough of low pressure extended to the northwest and brought clouds and showers to much of Southern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba to end the long weekend.

Over Alberta, central and northern regions saw the expected average May weather over the long weekend, while regions to the south were cooler with showers.

Overview

For this forecast period, it seems set to dry out and warm up. I suppose that’s good for the areas that recently received significant rainfall and not so good for those regions dealing with fires.

Currently there is a large area of low pressure south of the Great Lakes with a trough of low-pressure stretching northwestwards to an area of low pressure over the Yukon. This trough will bring plenty of clouds across the Prairies on Wednesday. A good portion of Alberta and Saskatchewan should see showers while Manitoba just deals with clouds.

This trough will start to break down on Thursday as weak upper-level ridging tries to build across the western Prairies. Further east, Arctic high pressure will settle into Northwestern Ontario. This high will help clear out the eastern Prairies. While the air associated with the high will start out on the cool side, the coldest air will be well to the east of the Prairies and the strong, late spring sun will quickly warm the air mass.

The upper ridge and east high should bring a prolonged sunny period accompanied by generally light winds. Temperatures will start off in the upper teens and will warm into the mid-twenties by late in the weekend. They may move into the upper twenties or low thirties by the early part of next week.

Alberta

This forecast period will start off cloudy with showers as a trough of low pressure works its way through the province. By Thursday the trough will weaken and lift off to the east. This will bring clear skies.

An upper ridge of high pressure will begin building in, which will help to boost temperatures back into the low twenties by the weekend. Some of the weather models show some instability sticking around on Thursday and Friday. This could trigger some afternoon showers or thundershowers.

Over the weekend, skies look to clear as the upper ridge continues to build. Expect sunny skies through the weekend and into at least the first half of next week. Along with the sunny skies will come warm, summery temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the mid-twenties by late in the weekend and in the upper twenties to low thirties for most of next week.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

One more day of clouds across these provinces as the upper trough of low pressure finally weakens and breaks up. Saskatchewan looks to see a few more showers on Wednesday while Manitoba looks to miss any more rain. Temperatures will be mildest over Manitoba due to thinner cloud cover and no precipitation.

The weather models then show an area of high pressure settling into northern or northwestern Ontario. While the core of this high will be on the cool side, it should be far enough away that we should not get too cold. In fact, the clockwise rotation around the high will help draw mild air to the west thanks to a building upper ridge over that region.

The building upper ridge to our west, combined with the large area of high pressure to our east, should result in sunny skies through the weekend and into next week. Along with the sunny skies, winds look to be relatively light for most of this forecast period which is good news for regions fighting fires.

What isn’t good news is that there looks to be little to no precipitation, and we will see temperatures warming towards the mid-twenties by late in the weekend. We could see mid to upper twenties by the middle of next week.

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As it turns out, this forecast period is looking very similar. The main difference is that our average temperatures are getting colder and colder.

We start this forecast period with an area of low pressure exiting northern Manitoba and another area of low pressure tracking by to our south through the north-central U.S. Off the West Coast, we find a large area of low-pressure dropping southwards. The energy from this is forecasted to break apart as it moves inland over the next few days, resulting in several areas of low-pressure impacting parts of the Prairies.

The first low is forecasted to develop over southern Alberta on Wednesday and then track northeastwards into northern Manitoba by Friday. The models show it being relatively weak with only a few flurries or light snow over the areas just north of the its track. The southerly flow ahead of the low will bring seasonable mild temperatures to the southern Prairies.

The weather models then show a second area of low pressure developing over the west-central U.S. on Saturday. This will quickly move northeast to cut through southern Manitoba late Saturday and Sunday. This system looks somewhat weak and should bring some clouds, showers, and flurries.

The last area of low pressure looks to be the strongest and has been predicted by the weather models for several days. Each model run treats the low differently. It’s forecasted to develop over the American southwest on Monday and to lift northeastwards into southern Manitoba and possibly Saskatchewan by Wednesday. This system has the potential to bring the first measurable snow to this part of the Prairies. As usual, it’s a long way off, and so far these lows have ended up staying to our south and east.

Alberta

This forecast period starts with an area of low pressure developing over southern half of Alberta. This will bring mild temperatures, with daytime highs in the 10 C range over southern regions and 5 C over central regions. Further north in the Peace River regions, temperatures will be cooler. Expect daytime highs in the -5 to -3 C range. There doesn’t appear to be much precipitation with this low. Western regions and east-central regions may see a few showers or flurries.

Things look to be fairly quiet over the weekend as a Gulf of Alaska low slowly pushes ashore over the Yukon. This low will help keep temperatures around average in the north and above over southern and central regions. Skies look to be partly cloudy with no significant precipitation expected. This pattern should continue into the first half of next week. There may be a bit of cool-down if the American southwest low does develop and lift northwards. That low could help pull cooler air southwards on its western side. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

These regions look to see a mix of sun and clouds over the next three days with temperatures running a good 6 to 10 C above average. An area of low pressure, forecasted to develop over southern Alberta on Wednesday, will bring some sun on Thursday with a chance of showers to both provinces as it tracks towards northern Manitoba. Best chance of precipitation looks to be over central regions.

Saskatchewan then looks to see quiet and mild weather over the weekend and into early next week. Over Manitoba, the weather models show a weak area of low-pressure sliding northeastwards out of the northwestern U.S. late on Saturday and into Sunday. This low will bring clouds and shower or flurries depending on the timing of the precipitation. More is likely in the overnight or early morning hours.

Once again, the forecast may become interesting by Tuesday or Wednesday. The weather models are showing an area of low pressure developing over the American southwest and then quickly lifting northeast. Temperatures ahead of this low look to cool toward more average values. Daytime highs by Tuesday or Wednesday are expected to be in the -2 to +2 C range.

There is the potential for this low to bring the first accumulating snowfall to southern Manitoba and parts of southern Saskatchewan around Wednesday, but as we have figured out, confidence in these systems this far out is low. There is some indication that it will be like the last couple of storms and will stay to our south and east. I’ll keep an eye on it and post an update early next week should the latest forecasts warrant it.

— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments. 

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The center of the ridge will start over Alberta where heat warnings are already in place. It will build stronger over the next several days and slowly shift eastwards. The center of the ridge will be lying over western Saskatchewan by the weekend.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure is sliding to the southeast of the Prairies, and a a sprawling but disorganized thermal low is over the western U.S. This leaves a rather weak pressure pattern across the Prairies, which means winds will be relatively light, making if feel that much hotter.

Alberta

What can I say? Sunny and hot weather is expected to last until at least next Tuesday as a strong upper ridge continues to build in. Expect daytime highs to be in the low to mid thirties with overnight lows falling to around 18 C.

Southern regions could see the odd thundershower on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon but overall it looks to be mostly dry.

Around next Tuesday, the weather models  hint that the upper ridge will begin to slide east, allowing an area of low pressure to push in from B.C. This low will bring unsettled and cooler temperatures to western regions but it looks like it will take several more days for the upper ridge to move out of the province.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Just like Alberta, an extended period of sunny and hot weather is expected. Daytime highs across Saskatchewan are forecasted to start off around the 30 C mark with highs inching upwards towards the mid-thirties by the weekend.

Across Manitoba, daytime highs will start in the mid-twenties. As the upper ridge builds, highs will be pushing 30 C by Friday. Overnight lows across both provinces will be in the 15 to 18 C range.

The weather models are showing some instability working its way along the edge of the upper ridge late in the weekend, which brings a chance of some thunderstorms to eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Confidence in this feature is low. Overall, it looks like the hot and dry weather will continue for much of next week.

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“The Canadian Prairies still have another week of unsettled weather for the eastern part of the region,” Lerner said in an interview on July 2.

That’s to include scattered showers on a daily basis, while Alberta won’t see as much precipitation.

“We will see the western part of Canada drying down and heating up in general,” he added, noting the eastern portion will begin to get less rain during the week of July 8.

“The temperatures won’t be as warm as they will be in the west,” Lerner continued, adding those should return to normal levels.

As for the U.S., Lerner said the Midwest is to be cool and rainy.

“The only areas that are a problem are those in the upper Midwest where you are going to have excessive moisture around for a while,” he commented, noting there could be more localized flooding.

The eastern half of the Midwest and the Delta region will get some timely rains after being drier for some time.

“The southeastern states will finally get some relief from the drying that’s been occurring there for a while,” Lerner said.

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Over Saskatchewan, the low is forecasted to bring a band of snow from southeastern region arching northwestwards through Saskatoon on Monday. It looks like this region will see upwards of 10cm of snow before the system moves off to the east. Behind the low temperatures are forecasted to plummet with daytime highs falling into the -15 to -20 C range. Luckily the cold snap does not look to last more than a couple of days.

In Manitoba, thing really get tricky with very warm air to the south of low and very cold air to the north, the exact track of the low will result in huge differences in the weather. You will need to really keep track of the local weather. The weather models have been coming into agreement with the Alberta low splitting into two with the main low over the mid west U.S. becoming the dominate low.

This looked to result in a band of snow moving through southern Manitoba late on Sunday and into Monday, with a general amount of 5cm can expected. As the southern low organizes and moves northeastwards on Tuesday, expect another quick shot of snow over southern and eastern regions. Cold air will pour in behind the low bringing a short return to winter like temperatures with daytime highs falling into the -15C range with overnight lows falling to, yep, you guessed it, possibly -30C.

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An upper ridge that brought plenty of heat, humidity, and some thunderstorms to the southern and central prairies appeared to be breaking down. In its place will be a large sprawling area of surface high pressure. This high will have its origins in the sub-arctic but with the summertime heat in place and the strong midsummer sunshine, temperatures will not cool down too much. What we will see a reduction in the humidity which should make for nice comfortable conditions. As the high drops southwards on Thursday and Friday, expect to see partly cloudy skies along with a few scattered thundershowers, and depending on the time of day, some scattered thunderstorms.

Over the weekend the high will settle across the prairies bringing with it plenty of sunshine, light winds, and daytime highs mostly in the low to maybe mid-twenties. To end off July and to start August, the weather models are showing the high drifting off to the east allowing for an area of low pressure to slide across the central prairies bringing with it clouds, thundershowers, and the possibility of some severe thunderstorms. Areas to the south of this low will see a continuation of warm temperatures while those to the north we cooler conditions.

Alberta

As the sub-arctic high pushes southward, northern regions will see unsettled conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. With the clouds and showers, expect cool temperatures with daytime highs around the 20 C mark. These unsettled conditions will continue to drop southwards ahead of the high with central regions seeing clouds, showers, and thundershowers on Thursday into Friday, and southern regions seeing the unsettled weather on Friday.

The weekend looks to be sunny and dry with daytime highs ranging from around 20 C in the north to pushing close to 30 C in the far south. By late in the day Sunday, the weather models are predicting an area of low pressure to spin up over north-central regions. This low will mainly impact the northern half of the province bringing clouds, showers, and thundershowers. Precipitation from this low looks to remain in the northern half of the province with southern regions continuing to be warm and dry. The low looks like it will move east of the province by late Monday bringing a return of dry weather to the north along with a warming trend for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Saskatchewan

This region looks to see a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday and Thursday as the sub-arctic high drops southwards behind a departing area of low pressure. There will likely be some showers and thundershowers as well, but they look to be widespread. Temperatures appear to be cool in the north and warm in the far south to start off this forecast period. Expect daytime highs in the north to struggle to make it to 20 C while the far south will see highs in the mid to upper twenties. Temperatures in the south will cool into the low twenties by Friday.

Over the weekend it looks like nearly perfect summer weather with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and daytime highs in the low to mid-twenties. The low forecasted to spin up over Alberta late on Sunday will bring increase clouds overnight Sunday with showers and thundershowers becoming widespread overnight and into Monday. As the low drifts through central and northern regions on Monday areas to the north of low will be cool, cloudy, with widespread showers. Southern regions will see clearing skies along with seasonable temperatures. The low should be out of the province by late Tuesday or early Wednesday bringing a return of nice summer weather.

Manitoba

Central and northern regions will see another day or two of unsettled weather as an area of low pressure slowly moves through the region before finally departing by Friday. Clouds, showers, and thunderstorms will dominate these regions during this period with temperatures working hard to make it to 20 C, depending on any sunshine that breaks through. Further south, it doesn’t look like there will be much in the way of thunderstorms, but with the heat and humidity they can be ruled out. Expect the heat to last until Thursday before the departing low drags a cold front though dropping daytime highs in this region back down into the low twenties.

The weekend appears pleasant with sunshine, light winds, and daytime highs in the low to mid-twenties. The nice weather looks like it will continue into Monday before the western low pushes in on Tuesday. The southerly flow ahead of the low will likely push daytime highs on Monday into the upper twenties and maybe even the low thirties. The low will then track through central and northern regions on Tuesday and Wednesday bring clouds and showers to these regions along with cooler temperatures. Southern regions have a good chance of seeing thunderstorms late on Monday and Tuesday as the low pushes into the region. It looks like the unsettled weather will clear out by late Wednesday setting the stage for nice seasonable summer weather to move back in.

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