WHY IT MATTERS: When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather.

“Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to subseasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La Niña,” the U.S. weather forecaster said. “Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial Pacific.”

La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

“There are signs that La Niña is weakening, and neutral ENSO conditions should return in the next couple of months,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather, adding that a transition to El Niño conditions could begin in late spring.

“Drought conditions have started to appear in parts of southeast Australia and a transition to El Niño could lead to worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season,” Nicholls added.

“With the transition out of La Niña, this should equate to more rain in Argentina, and less rain in north-central Brazil. Also, less rain is likely in Southeast Asia as we go into summer if La Niña fades,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.

Record heat and wildfires swept through the Southern Hemisphere at the start of 2026, with scientists predicting that even more extreme temperatures could lie ahead.

The post U.S. forecaster sees signs of La Niña shift towards El Niño conditions in early 2026 appeared first on Grainews.

This raises the likelihood of heavier rainfall in areas like Argentina and the central and southern U.S. plains, which could favour some wheat crops.

“Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña,” the U.S. weather forecaster added.

“For most of the month, easterly wind anomalies were present over the central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the equatorial Pacific.”

Current La Niña weak

La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops.

When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

More weather coverage: YEAR IN REVIEW: 2025 a year of weather extremes

“The current La Niña is weak with ENSO expected to return to neutral in February or March. There is a chance for El Niño conditions to develop in later Northern Hemisphere summer,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather, adding that there are no widespread drought conditions in the global crop areas.

“The transition back to neutral will likely equate for wetter conditions in Argentina, which will favor winter wheat in their winter coming up,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.

Could mean wetter conditions

It would also result in wetter conditions in the central and southern Plains in the U.S. later this summer, which would result in a better outlook for late growth of the hard red winter wheat crop, corn and soybeans, Keeney added.

Heavy rainfall forecast across most of Argentina’s agricultural belt will boost moisture levels over the coming days, benefiting soy and corn crops at key development stages, two major grain exchanges said on Wednesday.

“While there may be isolated individual market challenges, we believe that impacts are limited by expectations of a weak La Niña, which will not persist throughout the entirety of the crop season,” said Matthew Biggin, senior analyst at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.

Indonesia’s agency climate official Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said a La Niña weather pattern, which typically brings more rainfall, was expected to be weaker in 2026 and should conclude by the end of the first quarter.

Atmospheric indicators, such as trade winds, pressure and cloud patterns over the equatorial central Pacific, have shown consistent, though relatively weak, signs of La Niña since mid-to-late September, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday.

The Bureau predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain at La Niña levels until around late summer before returning to neutral.

— Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru

The post U.S. CPC sees 75 per cent chance of La Niña transition by early 2026 appeared first on Grainews.

“Even after equatorial Pacific SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) transition to ENSO-neutral, La Niña may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026,” the centre added in its monthly update.

La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops.

When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

Wet Brazil, Argentina, dry U.S. plains

“Sea-surface temperatures can return to a neutral ENSO in January or early February, but the lag with the atmosphere can result in weak La Niña atmospheric conditions carrying into March,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather.

Nicholls highlighted excessive rainfall in southern Brazil as a concern but said: “I do not really foresee widespread significant drought problems across much of the global croplands in the coming months.”

Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather, said conditions in the Pacific have warmed, with current temperatures “on the threshold of neutral and weak La Niña.”

Keeney expects wetter conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina as La Niña fades but warned: “The biggest threat in the short term should be the dry conditions in the central and southern Plains,” which may raise concerns for the U.S. hard red wheat crop heading into spring.

“While there may be isolated individual market challenges, we believe that impacts are limited by expectations of a weak La Niña, which will not persist throughout the entirety of the crop season,” said Matthew Biggin, senior analyst at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, adding favorable soil moisture conditions in Argentina’s central agricultural regions, the best in five years, may help mitigate potential dryness.

Many regions expected to be warmer than usual

A weak La Niña may affect global weather patterns during the next three months, according to a World Meteorological Organization prediction published last week.

Though the La Niña pattern involves the temporary cooling of temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, many regions are still expected to be warmer than normal, increasing the chance of floods and droughts, which can impact crops, the WMO said.

Japan’s weather bureau said on Wednesday it was currently seeing conditions close to the La Niña phenomenon but that such conditions would likely fade rapidly towards the end of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Indian farmers have ramped up planting of winter crops including wheat, rapeseed and chickpea, putting the country on track for record acreage as abundant soil moisture enables cultivation even in typically rainfed areas that often remain fallow.

— Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru

The post La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say appeared first on Grainews.

Why it matters: La Nina or El Nino weather patterns influence the jet stream, which affects temperatures and precipitation in North America.

La Nina, and its analogue, El Nino, are caused by the cooling or warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific.

The former typically brings greater rainfall to eastern Australia, Southeast Asia and India with drier weather in the Americas, while El Nino does the reverse. Both can also lead to hurricanes and flooding.

Models forecasting the weather patterns typically converge on a strong signal around this time of year but there is currently a lot of variation, said Felicity Gamble of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

“That speaks to the fact that there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the system,” she added.

La Nina conditions were present in weak strength, and would probably persist through December, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said this month.

The Australian bureau’s model shows sea surface temperatures brushing a La Nina threshold of 0.8 degrees Celsius below neutral levels in October, November and December before moving back towards neutral.

But the effect of the cooler water on atmospheric indicators such as cloud patterns and trade winds is not strong enough to impart confidence that a La Nina is taking place, Gamble added.

“Our model is probably one of the weaker forecasts for La Nina,” the senior climatologist said.

Although NOAA considered the atmospheric response sufficient, she said, “We’d like to see more.”

Except for some islands in the southwest Pacific, there was also no strong signal of rainfall patterns typically associated with La Nina, Gamble added.

“Because we aren’t seeing a particularly dominant La Nina-like pattern, we aren’t seeing the same magnitude of impacts … When you have a weaker signal, you can have other influences start to play a bigger role and perhaps override it,” she said.

Three consecutive La Nina events between 2020 and 2023 brought plentiful rainfall leading to record crop yields in Australia, but drought and heatwaves in parts of the Americas.

— Reporting by Peter Hobson

The post Australia’s weather bureau casts doubt on prospects for La Nina appeared first on Grainews.

“The ENSO neutral typically results in a drier central/southern U.S. Plains in winter, so this will likely affect the new winter wheat crop there,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.

“However, it is a bit more favorable for South America. This should result in increased plantings and favorable conditions, at least early in the season, for both central/northern Brazil and Argentina,” he added.

The U.S. weather forecaster added that ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely in the late Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025, with a 56 per cent chance during August to October.

La Niña is part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

Meanwhile, Japan’s weather bureau said this week that there was a 60 per cent chance that the La Niña phenomenon would not occur and normal weather patterns would continue towards the Northern Hemisphere winter.

— Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru

The post Brief La Niña expected in fall 2025 before more stable pattern returns says U.S. forecaster appeared first on Grainews.

“The ENSO neutral conditions should enhance planting and yield expectations for corn/soybeans in the U.S. as well as South America, but lower yield expectations a bit for wheat in Australia,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist, at Vaisala Weather.

“The chances of transition to El Niño or La Niña are rather low, although the odds of La Niña are slightly higher than the odds of El Niño, as we should be in a negative neutral category as we get closer to the fall and winter,”

Chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain comparable to ENSO-neutral, the CPC said on Thursday.

Why it’s important

The El Niño phenomenon is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, which can lead to crop damage, flash floods or fires.

La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

Japan’s weather bureau said that normal weather patterns are continuing and that there was a 40 per cent chance of the La Niña phenomenon emerging in the Northern Hemisphere autumn.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service has predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the 2025 season.

— Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru

The post Fifty-six per cent chance of more stable, ENSO neutral weather conditions in late summer and fall U.S. forecasters say appeared first on Grainews.

Chances of ENSO neutral conditions were put at 74 per cent from June to August, and exceed 50 per cent through August-October 2025, the agency said.

Why it matters: ENSO neutral conditions lower the probability of extreme weather events and could lend itself to better crop yields.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. El Niño refers to warmer-than-usual water temperatures, which can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts.

When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

“Neutral ENSO really has no usual conditions associated with it as a neutral ENSO results in other conditions influencing the local and global pattern,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

“The pattern this spring has resulted in some dryness concerns in the UK and northern Europe while southern Europe has been wet. It looks like the pattern will change heading into summer with more rain opportunities in northern Europe which may improve crop prospects.”

— Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru

The post More stable ENSO neutral weather conditions expected for summer appeared first on Grainews.

“I’ve got the sun to work with, I’ve got the atmosphere to work with and I got the ocean to work with. Those are the biggest drivers that I use,” Matt Makens told the recent Alberta Beef Conference in Calgary.

“For Western Canada, definitely the States, definitely Mexico, definitely South America, absolutely Australia, this El Niño/La Niña thing is the second biggest driver of weather. What’s number one? The earth’s tilt, seasonal change.”

What are La Niña and El Niño?

La Niña and El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years but occur on a regular schedule.

El Niño events can last for nine to 12 months but sometimes it can be for years. La Niña can last for up to three years.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific.

Makens, who runs of Makens Weather, has presented thousands of weather forecasts and outlooks to dozens of industries since the 1990s, with a primary focus on long-term seasonal forecasts and short-term weather hazards for the agricultural industry.

His company serves global clients from Australia to Canada and throughout the United States, including CanFax, CattleFax and the National Cattleman’s Beef Association.

He said La Niña used to be a fantastic snow producer for Canada. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia.

Off the west coast of North America, up-welling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.

During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are usually cooler than normal in Western Canada, but not so much in recent years.

Warmer than average temperatures indicate an El Niño, while cooler than average temperatures indicate a La Niña. Their effects are close to mirror images in different parts of the world.

“If you hear La Niña in Canada, a snow producer. If you hear La Niña in Texas and Mexico, it’s drought. South America, if you’re in Brazil, northern Argentina, La Niña brings drought. If you’re in Australia, La Niña brings water a lot of the time,” said Makens.

A warming ocean

A mere fraction of a degree change in temperature in the oceans can change the impact of how moisture is spread across the landscape, changing the orientation of moisture and drought and cold and hot.

Ocean temperatures have been steadily rising for decades, with the rate of ocean warming doubling in the last 20 years.

NASA reports that the last 10 years were the oceans’ warmest decade since at least the 1800s, and 2023 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean. Satellites, buoys and other monitoring systems are used for ocean temperatures, from which meteorologists gleam information.

Makens presented decades of statistical data since the 1950s that show the extreme outcomes when La Niña and El Nino temperatures go to plus two C and minus two C . This year, the La Niña went down to -1.1 which is defined as moderate.

“It didn’t maintain. Why did we see these wild swings of cold and warm, cold, warm? It’s because the atmosphere never fully embraced this La Niña. It did it three times — September, December and February is the only (time) the atmosphere acted like La Niña. In Canada, we fluctuated between the La Niña side and the neutral sides,” said Makens.

In terms of frequency of drought, ocean data has shown since the late 1990s that droughts are going to occur more frequently and rapidly according to Makens’ models, which is part of a cycle over the last 150 years.

Soil moisture should start well

However, relief may be coming for producers, particularly those who raise cattle.

“If we are going to rebuild the herd, are we going to have the water to do it? If these things are so slow to change, how do we get that frequent moisture in across the States and in parts of the Prairies and down through Mexico, how do we get to that point?” Makens said.

“Should history repeat itself, it should be within five years. The oceans have to behave like we expect them to behave. We’ve melted a lot of ice, so that water in the ocean, that changes its salinity, it changes a lot of the characteristics of the ocean. I think what happens long term is that the frequency of these wet periods is not going to be 20 to 30 years anymore. It’s going to be shorter and we will go back to the more frequent 20 to 30 years of drought.”

He expects soil moisture to start off the spring well for producers, but it will not be sustained as the situation quickly changes going into summer.

“Your transition will be quicker to drought this year than it was last year. That also means, conversely, it will warm up faster than it did last year.”

Makens said a flash drought is characterized by a rapid onset, intensification and severity over a relatively short time frame of a few weeks.

“There will come a point in late June or July where you will hear about this drought and its impact on U.S. corn, and it will impact you as well,” said Makens.

‘Encouraging’ snowpack

He said data from the 1950s shows we should plan for another neutral La Niña pattern, similar to what was just seen in Western Canada.

“Does that mean we are going to have great snowpack? I would like to say yes, that’s usually what we get with an La Niña winter, but we need it t0 be a stronger one (La Niña).”

If La Niña holds at least into the neutral grouping, it will be advantageous for snowpack and water because colder weather will hopefully lock it rather than the radical ups and downs of the past year bringing rapid changes.

Makens said precipitation was sporadic between December and February with the mountain snowpack remaining below average. Soil moisture levels in most cases support starting the growing season on a sound footing, with data indicating a rapid decline in soil moisture in the months ahead.

During question period, producers asked about predictions further north in the province past Edmonton.

“The current snowpack is encouraging, and moisture trends will favour that area in northern parts of the province and northern Saskatchewan,” he said.

“The precipitation in those areas will be very close to pollination, whereas the south side is going to dry out too fast. So for northerners, the outlook is actually much more positive than the south.”

The post Transition to drought expected to be swifter this year appeared first on Grainews.

Why it matters: ENSO neutral conditions reduce the likelihood of extreme flooding or drought for Canadian farmers

La Niña is a phenomenon which is part of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle involving water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

While La Niña causes cooler-than-average temperatures, raising chances of both floods and droughts, thereby affecting crops, ENSO neutral means that the water temperature remains near the average level and crop yields may be more stable.

“La Niña is over for now, as we are officially in a neutral status and sea surface anomalies in the central Pacific are right at zero. With that said, there will likely be dryness in the central and southern Plains for at least the next month or so, which will impact winter wheat growth,” said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist at Maxar.

“Also, we do anticipate some dryness developing in central Brazil in May and June, which will stress safrinha corn. There will likely be continued drier conditions in eastern Europe, Ukraine, and western Russia through June, and will impact both winter wheat as well as early growth of corn and sunflowers,” Keeney added.

Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said that conditions similar to the La Niña phenomenon are starting to weaken.

The bureau added that it estimates a 60 per cent chance of normal weather patterns continuing towards the Northern Hemisphere summer.

“The forecast team concurs and predicts ENSO-neutral … with a 62 per cent chance in June-August 2025 … and chances greater than 50 per cent through July-September 2025,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

— Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru

The post U.S. forecaster sees neutral weather conditions persisting through summer appeared first on Grainews.

“The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts slightly cooler sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with La Niña persisting through February-April 2025,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

A transition to ENSO-neutral, a cycle between El Niño and La Niña weather patterns, is likely during March-May 2025, the CPC said, adding that there is a 60 per cent chance of this happening.

El Niño is a natural warming of eastern and central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, while La Niña is characterized by colder temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region.

Recent dry weather linked to the La Niña weather pattern has started to dent soybean and corn crops in Argentina, but rain forecast to arrive in mid-January should bring relief to the core farm region.

“With La Niña conditions not being consistent this winter, there will be more frequent and longer dry periods that could impact the critical crop growing periods,” said Tyler Roys, Senior Meteorologist, Lead European Forecaster at AccuWeather.

“The challenges that are going to be faced in the first half of 2025 in the southern Hemisphere is going to be soil moisture levels, especially in South America… If drier conditions spread across more of Brazil during the rest of winter, this is going to impact the winter crop.”

— Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru

The post US forecaster says La Niña conditions present, could persist through Feb-April appeared first on Grainews.