Overall

The IGC trimmed world grain production for 2025/26 by one million tonnes at 2.46 billion.

• Total supply was cut by 3.60 million tonnes at nearly 3.05 billion.
• Total feed, industrial and feed use was lowered by one million tonnes to just short of 2.42 billion.
• Ending stocks dropped by 2.70 million tonnes at 631.10 million.

Soybeans

The IGC raised its global soybean production call for 2025/26 by 1.30 million tonnes from January, now at 428.20 million.

• Total supply was bumped up 1.40 million tonnes at 510 million.
• There was an increase to Brazilian production with two million tonnes added to its crop at 179 million. That was partly offset by an 800,000-tonne reduction to Argentina’s harvest at 47 million.
• A 900,000-tonne cut to total use brought it to 430.80 million tonnes.
• The world soybean carryover was raised 2.30 million tonnes at 79.20 million.

Wheat

For world wheat, 300,000 tonnes were shaved off of output at 841.70 million for 2025/26, as the IGC took that amount off from its call on the European Union harvest at 143.40 million.

• Total global supplies were lowered by 1.10 million tonnes at almost 1.11 billion.
• Total use was trimmed 300,000 tonnes at 822.80 million.
• Ending stocks came down 900,000 tonnes at 282.40 million.

Corn

For global corn production, the IGC upped tacked on 500,000 tonnes at 1.31 billion.

• Total supplies were raised by 700,000 tonnes at 1.60 billion.
• Total use was increased by 800,000 tonnes at nearly 1.30 billion.
• The world carryover remained at 304.80 million.

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The intergovernmental body, in a monthly update, forecast total grains production at a record 2.461 billion metric tons, up 31 million tons from its previous projection.

“The 2025/26 total grains harvest will smash all existing records. As well as bumper maize (corn) and wheat outturns, barley and sorghum crops are also expected at multi-season peaks,” the IGC said.

The report said about half the extra production may be channelled into consumption but almost as much might also be added to year-end stocks.

Global wheat production was upwardly revised to 842 million tons, up from 830 million seen previously, driven partly by improved outlooks for Argentina and Canada.

The IGC upgraded its forecast for Argentina’s wheat crop to 27.7 million tons, up from a previous projection of 23.5 million and now broadly in line with the current U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast of 27.5 million.

Canada’s wheat crop was revised to 40 million tons from 36.6 million. The USDA earlier this month put Canadian wheat production at 39.95 million.

Global corn production in 2025/26 was increased by 15 million tons to 1.313 billion tons driven mainly by an upgrade for the U.S. (432.3 million tons from 419 million).

Earlier this month, the USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn production, surprising the consensus among analysts for a reduction and sending Chicago prices lower.

— Reporting by Nigel Hunt

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“The larger global harvest will more than compensate for the tightest opening stocks in ten seasons, boosting overall supply by three per cent, to an all-time peak,” the IGC said.

The inter-governmental body raised its forecast for global grains production in 2025/26 by 5 million metric tons to 2.43 billion tons, outstripping consumption, which was projected at 2.40 billion.

Global stocks of grain at the end of the 2025/26 season were seen at a three-year high of 619 million tons, up from 589 million a year earlier.

The IGC raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production by 3 million tons to 830 million, partly driven by improved crop outlooks in Kazakhstan and Argentina.

Kazakhstan’s wheat crop was revised higher to 19.1 million tons, up from a previous projection of 17.6 million.

Earlier this month, Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov said the country had harvested a record-high grain crop which included 20.3 million tons of wheat.

Argentina’s wheat crop was seen at 23.5 million tons, up from a previous projection of 22.2 million and well above the prior season’s 18.5 million.

The IGC also increased its 2025/26 world corn (maize) crop outlook by a marginal 1 million tons to 1.298 billion tons.

Global soybean production in 2025/26 was trimmed to 426 million tons, down from a previous forecast of 428 million and the prior season’s 429 million.

The IGC noted that soybean production was still expected to be the second largest on record.

“With (soybean) consumption seen at a new peak on gains in Asia and the Americas in particular, inventories could tighten,” the IGC said.

— Reporting by Nigel Hunt

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Why it matters: Wheat prices are at five-year lows

The intergovernmental body, in a monthly report, raised its global wheat production forecast by eight million tonnes to 827 million tonnes, a record high and up 1.1 per cent from the prior season.

An improving outlook for this year’s wheat crops has helped drive down global prices with Chicago wheat futures slumping to a five-year low earlier this month.

The IGC said latest data had confirmed better than anticipated yields in a number of key producers.

Russia’s wheat crop was forecast to total 86.5 million tonnes, up from a previous projection of 85 million.

The outlook for crops in the world’s top wheat exporter has been boosted by record yields in Siberia.

The IGC also upwardly revised its forecast for the U.S. wheat crop to 54 million tonnes, from 52.4 million, and for Argentina’s production to 22.2 million tonnes from 20.2 million.

Global wheat consumption was raised by just one million tonnes to 820 million, leading to a build up in stocks by the end of the season to a three-year high of 275 million tonnes.

The IGC also said it had kept its 2025/26 world corn (maize) crop outlook at 1.297 billion tonnes, up 4.7 per cent from a year earlier.

Global soybean production in 2025/26 was seen at 428 million tonnes, marginally below the prior season’s 429 million and forecast consumption was expected to climb to 430 million, from 419 million a year earlier.

“Total use is seen at a new peak, while stocks could tighten slightly,” the IGC said.

— Reporting by Nigel Hunt

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The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, trimmed its global corn crop forecast by six million tonnes to 1.219 billion tonnes.

The U.S. corn crop was revised down to 377.6 million tonnes from 384.6 million seen previously, bringing it into line with the current U.S. government estimate.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Jan. 10 cut its forecast for the 2024 U.S. corn harvest to 377.6 million tonnes following a dry end to the nation’s growing season.

The IGC kept its 2024/25 world wheat crop outlook at 796 million tonnes, with a downward revision for Russia (81.3 million from 81.8 million) offset by an upward adjustment for Australia (31.9 million from 31.3 million).

Wheat production in the 2025/26 season was seen tentatively rising to a record 805 million tonnes, up one per cent year-on-year, based on information on sown areas and weather.

“With supply seen expanding only fractionally, projected gains in consumption could result in a further drawdown in end-season stocks,” the IGC said.

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The London-based IGC released its first monthly report of the new calendar year on Jan. 11, listing total grain production up from its November call of 1.872 million tonnes. The IGC does not issue reports for December.

Among the changes the council made for January, production increases included Australia from 37 million tonnes to now 39.3 million; Canada up from 55.5 million to 59.1 million; and China now at 434.7 million compared to 426.4 million previously.

Also, the IGC upped its projection on total grain ending stocks from 584.9 million tonnes to 590.2 million.

Global wheat production for 2023/24 was pushed up to 788.3 million tonnes from November’s 786.6 million. Among the notable changes to output were Australia raised 1.1 million tonnes at 25.5 million, and Canada from 29.8 million to now 32 million.

World wheat ending stocks were nudged up from 264 million tonnes in the IGC’s previous report to now 265.6 million.

Global corn output for the current marketing year was raised as well, from 1.223 billion tonnes in the IGC’s November estimates to now 1.230 billion.

There were production increases for China from 280.6 million to now 288.8 million tonnes, and Ukraine from 28.8 million to 30 million. These were offset by a cut to Brazil from 124 million tonnes to 119.7 million.

With the higher corn production, ending stocks were raised two million tonnes at 286.8 million.

The IGC reduced 2023/24 world soybean production from 394.8 million tonnes in November to now 392.4 million. Argentina was boosted from 44 million tonnes to 48.5 million, Brazil was cut from 160 million tonnes to 153.5 million.

Despite the drop in soybean production, the IGC raised ending stocks from 62.2 million tonnes to now 66.1 million. A large part of that came with increasing the carry-in from 53.9 million tonnes to now 57.3 million.

The next monthly report from IGC is scheduled for Feb. 15.

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The London-based IGC reduced its forecast for world corn output from its September call of approximately 1.222 billion tonnes, to 1.219 billion.

Although total use in the October report was kept at 1.208 billion tonnes, the carryout was revised from 288.7 million down to 283.3 million. That was partly due to total supply being chopped from 1.497 billion tonnes to 1.492 billion.

Leading the way for that were reductions in the European Union’s output from 61.1 million tonnes to 59.8 million, and U.S. output being cut from 384.4 million to 382.7 million.

All that resulted in 2023-24 world grain production being lowered from 2.295 billion tonnes to 2.292 billion, but with ending stocks falling from 587.7 million to 581.8 million.

The IGC kept its carryout for world wheat at 262.6 million tonnes, despite bumping up its 2023-24 production estimate from 783.5 million tonnes in September to 784.9 million.

As for 2023-24 soybeans, the IGC cut world production from 396 million tonnes to 393.5 million but tacked on 100,000 tonnes to the carryover bringing it to 61.7 million.

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Compared to the IGC’s April report, it added three million tonnes to its May forecast on overall new crop production. That made for a 40 million-tonne boost from the council’s estimate for 2022-23. The ending stocks for 2023-24 were trimmed by one million tonnes at 580 million, which would be nine million less than the previous year.

The IGC reduced world wheat production by four million tonnes from April at 783 million, which would be 20 million less than 2022-23. The wheat carryover was cut six million tonnes at 271 million, 12 million less than in 2022-23.

Global corn output saw a nine million-tonne boost from the previous month to 1.217 billion, largely based on significant increases in Brazil’s corn harvests for 2023-24. That compared with world corn production in 2022-23 of 1.153 billion tonnes. IGC raised the carryout for the upcoming crop year by eight million tonnes to 272 million, which would be six million more than stocks in 2022-23.

World soybean production for 2023-24 was nudged up two million tonnes from April at 403 million. That would be 34 million tonnes more than what was reaped in 2022-23. Ending stocks were raised four million tonnes from last month at 64 million, which was a 14 million-tonne hike from the previous year.

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Soybean futures hit a 10-month low, and wheat futures slipped more than two per cent as an extension of a deal to allow war-ravaged Ukraine to continue exporting grains through Black Sea ports eased concerns over world supplies.

Chicago Board of Trade July corn settled down 6-1/4 cents at $5.55-1/4 per bushel after dipping to $5.47, the lowest on a continuous chart of the most-active corn contract since October 2021 (all figures US$). But new-crop December corn, representing the 2023 harvest, ended up 1-3/4 cents at $5.00-3/4, bouncing after falling below $5 this week for the first time since late 2021.

CBOT July soybeans settled down 3-3/4 cents at $13.33-1/4 per bushel after falling to $13.23-1/4, the lowest on a continuous chart since July 2022. CBOT July wheat finished down 13-3/4 cents at $6.11-3/4 a bushel.

Corn futures fell to session lows after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report showed net sales reductions of U.S. old-crop corn in the week to May 11 totalling nearly 339,000 tonnes, largely due to cancellations from Chinese buyers. Net sales of new-crop corn totalled 74,000 tonnes.

“Corn and soybean prices continue to add to their recent losses amid weak export sales demand. The bears have the momentum, and there’s simply not a story out there currently to change the narrative,” StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman wrote in a client note.

Meanwhile, the International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2023-24 global corn crop by nine million tonnes to 1.217 billion tonnes, largely reflecting improved outlooks for production in Brazil and China.

Wheat futures sagged despite poor harvest projections from this week’s annual crop tour of Kansas, the top U.S. winter wheat producer. In its final estimate released on Thursday, the Wheat Quality Council tour estimated the average Kansas wheat yield at 30.0 bushels per acre, the tour’s lowest since at least 2000.

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago; additional reporting by Nigel Hunt in London and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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The London-based IGC issued its latest supply and demand report on Thursday.

World grain production was bumped up by eight million tonnes from the IGC’s March report, bringing it to 2.29 billion tonnes. That’s 39 million tonnes more than where the council pegged the previous year’s output. Increases in corn and soybean production, led by Brazil, resulted in the IGC raising its call.

The global grain trade was cut by four million tonnes in April at 407 million, which is slightly below that in 2022-23. Overall consumption was raised five million tonnes from March at 2.29 billion, which is 29 million more than in 2022-23. However, ending stocks inched up one million tonnes from last month at 581 million. That’s also three million more than in the previous marketing year.

World corn production was boosted six million tonnes by the IGC, bringing its forecast for 2023-24 to 1.21 billion tonnes. That’s an increase of 58 million tonnes from output in 2022-23. While trade is expected to remain relatively stable at 172 million tonnes, consumption was increased. The IGC estimated the latter will climb to 1.2 billion tonnes, four million more than last month’s call and 29 million more than in 2022-23. That also translated to a larger carryover, with the council’s April forecast at 264 million tonnes — up three million from March and six million from 2022-23.

Increases in soybeans were smaller than those in corn, with a two million-tonne uptick in total world production for 2023-24 at 401 million tonnes, rising two million from the IGC’s March report. Compared to 2022-23 that would be a 31 million-tonne gain. Trade inched up one million tonnes from March at 174 million tonnes, six million more than in 2022-23. Consumption as well added one million tonnes at 389 million, besting last year by 23 million tonnes. The carryout tacked on four million tonnes with April at 60 million, 11 million more than 2022-23.

Global wheat production for 2023-24 remained at 787 million tonnes from March to April, which is 16 million less than in 2022-23. The IGC trimmed trade by two million tonnes from month to month at 193 million. Also, it’s five million tonnes less than in 2022-23. There’s virtually no change in total consumption at 794 million tonnes from last year. Ending stocks slip two million tonnes from last month at 277 million, pushing it to seven million less than in 2022-23.

The IGC’s next round of estimates is scheduled for May 18.

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