Darren Chapman, a Virden, Man. producer and chair of the Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association (MFGA), explained that regrowth following the first cut of hay has been strong.

First-cut hay crops were stunted by an unseasonably chilly, dry spring and yields were around half to two-thirds of what’s typically expected.

“We were late on the first cut because there wasn’t much there,” Chapman said.

Second-cut yields are expected to be higher, around 75 per cent of average. Farmers who got the first cut off the fields earlier in the season may start their second cut as early as the first week in August.

“Now that the rain has started, I guess we’re not too bad,” he said.

“There’s going to be a lot of moisture for the regrowth, that’s what we’re gaining now.”

The timing of rain is almost as important as the amount; hay’s quality diminishes if it’s rained on after it’s cut but before it’s baled.

“It is nitpicky, but it would be nice if we had one or two days longer between the rains to get some hay put up,” Chapman said.

“Some producers are having a difficult time getting their first cut off in good condition,” MFGA extension specialist John McGregor said.

General sentiment among producers is more positive these days, however. Prices are currently between $220 and $250 per tonne for dairy-quality alfalfa and between $170 and $200 for mixed hay, with some variation in prices as “producers don’t know just how much hay they’ve got,” he said.

“They don’t know how much hay they’re going to have as a surplus that they’ll be able to sell.”

MFGA performs a price survey for producers in late August.

Concerns of a hay shortage still linger, due to lower-than-average carryout stocks from 2018 that were completely used up over the winter.

“No matter how good this crop will be, we will likely be short of hay,” McGregor said.

“We’re never getting back to 100 per cent of our normal hay supply.”

According to the most recent crop report from Manitoba Agriculture, hay and forage yields are weakest in the Interlake region. First-cut yields were reported as 30 to 60 per cent of average.

Hay fields are rated as 30 per cent fair and 60 per cent poor to very poor.

Some producers who also have cattle and horses have explored alternative feeding options in response to lowered crop yields and subsequently higher-than-average prices.

“Producers have planted green feed, some are looking into silage, and some are lining up straw,” said McGregor.

“They’re just looking for alternative forage to get their herds through the winter.”

— Marlo Glass writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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“We’ve had a tough start here,” said Darren Chapman, chair of the Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association.

“We had a cold, dry spring with frost, so first cut in the pastures had a slow start. First cut will be ready later, and it’s possible the hay will mature quicker, so we’ll have lower yield.”

As of April 30, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Drought Monitor reported abnormally dry conditions stretching from Edmonton to Winnipeg, with pockets of moderate-to-severe drought conditions located across the Prairies near Swan River, Yorkton, Saskatoon, Regina, Lethbridge and Red Deer.

This outlook follows abnormally dry growing seasons in 2017 and 2018, when hay yields were lower than average.

“With cattle coming off the pasture early in 2017 and a very poor hay crop in 2018, most producers have used up their reserves,” said Sheri Parkinson, president of the Manitoba Horse Council.

“I’m expecting another tough year for getting enough hay, and prices to remain high.”

One producer in Saskatchewan admitted he “got a bit greedy” when pricing his hay this spring.

“I saw $130 per round bale [prices] in Regina and Saskatoon, so I upped my prices from $100 to $120,” he said.

The producer explained that he also took land prices and equipment costs into consideration before making his decision.

“I asked myself, ‘Would I want to pay that?’ You hate to gouge people, and yet it has to be worth it.”

Experts familiar with the hay market anticipate the newly-imposed carbon tax in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Ontario will increase the cost of shipping hay, further raising prices.

Louise May, an organic farmer south of Winnipeg, said the prolonged dry conditions caused her to rethink her growing strategy.

“I decided to cut and produce all of my hay in small squares instead of round bales,” she said.

“It was a lot more labour to get it off the field and into the shed, but I was worried I wouldn’t have enough hay, so I wanted us to waste less and economize more.”

Since May also purchases hay to supplement her crop, she noticed prices have significantly increased, “even from friendly sellers.

“I’ve heard of small squares going for $10 a bale right now, and that’s unheard of. It’s usually around $5.”

As worries of a Prairie-wide hay shortage have circulated since drought conditions began in 2017, rumours abound of producers waiting to sell in order to jack up prices.

“Everyone has to pay the price of a shortage,” May said.

“As a hay producer, I know you don’t get too many chances.”

Chapman anticipated prices will increase by up to 10 per cent in 2019, after 2018 yields were down by 30-35 per cent.

“If prices don’t go up there’s nothing to accommodate that loss,” said May.

“I don’t begrudge anybody, but it’s a telling tale of how our economy has been stressed because of the drought.”

While hay supplies remain tight, it’s too soon to tell if a bona fide shortage will occur.

“Mother Nature is throwing us a curve ball here,” said Chapman. “Hopefully she’ll send us a fastball again, and things will get back on track.”

— Marlo Glass writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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South Africa, Eastern Europe and Argentina have increased their alfalfa production, said Edward J. Shaw, director of market development at Green Prairie International.

“So we’ve got more competitors out there,” he said.

The U.S. is also adding to global supplies, especially as China has been buying less from the country, said Shaw.

“The U.S. is awash with alfalfa. A lot of farmers sat on inventory. They thought it was worth gold.”

Despite high global supplies, the exchange rate is helping Canadian producers, Shaw added.

That’s a sentiment echoed by Tara Mulhern Davidson, project co-ordinator at the Saskatchewan Forage Council.

“When hay is already worth quite a bit in Canada, it’s going to be hard to encourage people to buy hay from the States.”

At their summer highs, hay prices sat around C$200 for a round bale, according to Shaw — but now prices are around C$75-$100, he said.

Prices peaked in August and into September on supply concerns.

Saskatchewan producers weren’t able to get two cuts of hay, Mulhern Davidson said. “So that kind of freaked people out.”

Prices softened after timely rains moved across Saskatchewan, easing supply concerns. A relatively warm winter is also adding pressure to prices.

“There’s still a lot of people that still have cattle out grazing right now,” she said. “It’s one less day, one less week, one less month that they’re sitting in a yard needing to be fed.”

Looking forward to next year, Mulhern Davidson said she expects increased acres, as many producers postponed seeding last growing season.

“There were a lot of people who had planned on seeding forages this spring, but it was a very cold, very dry spring across the province, so they held off.”

If conditions are right this year, Canada should see an increase in acres, Mulhern Davidson said.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter.

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“Skyrocketing hay prices have stabilized… supplies are good,” said Terry Kowalchuk, a provincial forage crop specialist in Regina.

Prices are mostly back down into the $80-$100 per tonne range, he added. “Some people had been asking $120 or $140.”

Dry conditions early in the year were threatening the viability of the forage crop, but rain in the latter stages of the summer helped them recover. Good soil moisture saved them, Kowalchuk said.

“It probably was one of the driest springs on record… without the spring soil moisture we would have been in dire straits.”

It was a similar situation in Manitoba, according to another industry watcher.

“Earlier in the year we were looking at potential feed shortages in the southwest and northwest areas of the province,” said John McGregor of the Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association.

Timely rains late in the growing season enabled farmers to get a second cut in those areas that was average to above average, he added. “We’re looking for average yields in most of the province.”

Most of the soil in the province is also “fully charged,” which bodes well for next spring.

Forage prices are slightly below last year’s. Alfalfa is at the eight cents per pound range; alfalfa mixtures were in the five cents per pound range.

Grass/hay mixtures were in the three- to 3.5-cent range, according to McGregor.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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