“Purely from a price perspective, markets believe the Canadian harvest was smaller than estimated by Statistics Canada,” Stat Publishing noted in a recent article.

Using crop insurance data, a “strong argument” can be made that growers planted 358,000 acres of green peas last year, well below Statistics Canada’s 463,000-acre estimate.

Stat believes the area has been over-reported since 2021.

“The cumulative difference in green pea production since 2021 is likely around 196,000 tonnes, resulting in a major reduction in residual stocks from prior estimates,” it stated.

“This helps explain both the price performance for the crop and perceived on-farm stocks.”

Tight stocks likely driving prices

Green pea bids were averaging about $15.40 per bushel as of May 2, while yellows were fetching $9.85, according to Stat.

The firm believes green pea carryout from the previous year was a paltry 14,000 tonnes. That will likely climb to 48,600 tonnes by the end of the 2024-25 campaign due to poor export movement.

Growers are expected to increase their green pea acreage in 2025, which creates the potential for lower prices in 2025-26, said Stat.

MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett thinks Stat’s assessment of the green pea market is pretty much bang on.

“I would agree with the premise that the reason we have high prices is because we do have tight stocks,” he said.

It could also be due to quality issues or slumping demand, but he thinks it is more likely to be tighter-than-reported supplies.

“If this was systemic in the StatsCan reporting series, it would be nice to see them correct it,” he said.

It is a constant struggle to get the numbers right when dealing with small-acreage crops such as pulses, but it’s important because a 100,000-tonne error can have a big price impact for a crop such as green peas.

Yellow peas under pressure

Burnett agrees with Stat that green pea acres are likely on the rise at the expense of yellow peas.

“Prices dictate that you would switch into green peas and it’s easy to do agronomically,” he said.

“Green peas and yellow peas are essentially the same agronomics. It’s not like you’re switching from canola to wheat.”

There are some farmers who will only grow yellow peas, but there are others who have experience with both types.

Yellow pea prices have been under pressure since March 20, when China implemented its 100 per cent tariff on Canadian peas.

There is also looming uncertainty in the other key market for the crop. India’s 50 per cent tariff on yellow pea imports has been exempted since December 2023.

That exemption is set to expire May 31.

Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, said China’s tariff announcement upended Statistics Canada’s forecast calling for 3.5 million acres of peas, a 9.5 percent increase over last year.

“There’s a pretty good chance we will see some pea acres get lost,” he said during a March 27 Saskatchewan Pulse Growers podcast.

“Some of those might get shifted into lentils, especially red lentils if somebody wants to keep a pulse in their rotation.”

He thinks pea plantings will likely fall by 400,000 to 500,000 acres.

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Sargsyan explained yellow pea prices increased when India slashed its import duties 10 months ago.

“I know there are targets for higher prices right now, but I’ve noticed that prices have backed off a little bit this week,” he said.

The broker quoted yellow peas at C$10.50 to C$11 per bushel, down from C$11.50 to C$12 as the India market is something of a question mark. The country’s government planned to end its levy reduction at the end of October.

“You need adequate time to get the product into India,” Sargsyan said. “That import window could be extended. I think if there is an extension … we could see renewed demand and maybe another bump in the price.”

As for green peas, the broker stated their price have remained firm at about C$15 to C$15.50/bu.

Canadian pea exports for 2023/24 totaled 2.40 million tonnes versus 2.57 million the previous year, according to Statistics Canada. Of the 2023/24 total, just over a third went to India after the country acquired none the previous year. That surge to India compensated for reduced exports to Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.

StatCan reported a sharp decline in pea exports for the first month of the 2024/25 marketing year. Only 16,539 tonnes were shipped out of Canada in August compared to 99,643 the previous August, with India accounting for 1.6 per cent of the total.

– With files from Phil Franz-Warkentin, Glacier Farm Media

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Hamilton attributed the rise in prices to the reduced production of green peas plus a sudden demand for yellow peas from India and China to a lesser extent.

“A lot of the pea acres that went in this year were yellows. A lot fewer greens and poorer yields. The greens are in demand from our regular customers from South America,” he said, noting prices for the peas remained very good throughout harvest.

As for the yellow peas, Hamilton stated India in particular has essentially been non-existent as a buyer during the last four years.

“Then all of a sudden India announces they might have less [pulses] available. They drop their import regulations on yellow peas,” he commented, adding that prices for them went from “a soft $10 per bushel to $12.50 to $13.”

With that turnaround from India, Hamilton said if Canada produced an average yellow pea crop this year that would have slowed the spike in their prices. He said all of this buying will lead to tighter ending stocks for both peas, than what had been expected.

Statistics Canada issued its final production report for 2023 on Dec. 4, in which it placed total dry pea production at 2.61 million tonnes. While that’s up from StatCan’s September estimate of 2.27 million tonnes, it’s short of the 3.42 million harvested in 2022. Meanwhile, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada isn’t expected to release its next supply and demand estimates until later this month.

Hamilton suggested farmers take advantage of the good prices for yellow peas by Dec. 31.

“Once Jan. 1 hits, the buying is going to be done,” he commented, with India unlikely to start another buying spree until what they have purchased now has arrived, which he believes would be March at the earliest.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported green pea prices as Of Dec. 11 were C$16.50 to C$17.50/bu. delivered across Western Canada, with yellows at C$11 to C$12. During the course of 2023, green peas were as little as C$11.80/bu. to as much as C$18 and yellows ranged from C$8.20/bu. to C$13.39.

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“We are hearing that China slowed their imports down from Canada, which is driving the current decrease in prices,” Sargsyan said. “They have increased their imports from countries like Russia, which is increasing competition for our export market.”

He said yellow peas since April have fluctuated between $9.50-$11 per bushel free on board in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, adding that when export demand was strong, that pushed prices higher.

It’s the same story for green peas, as Sargsyan noted they have $16-$16.50/bu. f.o.b., being somewhat resilient as compared to yellow peas.

“The increased export competition will have an impact on long-term production. We will have to watch the geopolitical dynamics unfold to create long-term clarity,” he said.

The latest numbers from the Canadian Grain Commission listed pea exports 15 weeks into the 2023-24 marketing year were 760,500 tonnes, down slightly from 775,800 the same time last year. Domestic usage fell back as well, with 54,800 tonnes so far this year compared to 88,700 a year ago.

In terms of specific countries, the CGC cited total pea exports at 499,100 as of September. Of that 406,400 tonnes were shipped to China, which was more than the 342,300 tonnes a year ago. Canada’s other foreign purchasers in 2023-24 have been Bangladesh at 57,800 tonnes, Mexico at 25,000 and the United States at 9,900.

Prairie Ag Hotwire found that green peas across Western Canada were $16-$16.75/bu. f.o.b., slipping 50 cents over the last week. Meanwhile, yellow pea prices gave up $1.30 during the same time, at $10-$10.75/bu.

As for feed prices, they were unchanged at $9.75-$10.25/bu. f.o.b. in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and $11-$11.70 delivered in Alberta.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Sargsyan pointed out that prices for yellow peas have been slipping back recently.

“Export demand has dropped overseas, so that’s been pushing the yellow pea prices down. The market seems to be taking more yellow peas right now is the feed market,” he said.

Meanwhile, green peas have held steady or bumped a little as that market remained strong, Sargsyan added, noting it’s been around $13.50 per bushel picked up on the farm.

As of Monday, green peas added 25 cents/bu., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Prices in Western Canada have been $12.50-$13.50/bu. on the farm and $13-$14.50 delivered.

Yellow peas, on the other hand, have slipped back 20 cents/bu., with prices at $10-$11 picked up or $10-$12.80 delivered.

For the most part, feed prices on the Prairies continued to remain consistent for peas. Those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba haven’t changed, at $10-$11/bu. picked up in either province. As for delivered, Saskatchewan prices were $11.50-$12.70/bu., with no delivered price for Manitoba. Alberta saw its prices drop 68 cents/bu., with those delivered getting $12-$12.66.

With more processing plants to start up, Sargsyan said the future looks good for peas on the Prairies, especially for yellows.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“The yellow pea market has some life again,” said Allan Johnston of Johnston’s Grain at Wellwyn, Sask. He added there were also a few companies chasing after some coverage for green peas with “lots of grain moving right now.”

Through the crop year-to-date, Canadian farmers delivered 1.92 million tonnes of peas into the commercial pipeline as of Feb. 19, up by 42 per cent from the same point the previous year.

Exports are also running well ahead of the year-ago, with the 1.29 million tonnes moved through the first 29 weeks of the 2022-23 crop year nearly double the 748,700 tonnes reported by the same time in 2021-22.

Green peas delivered to the elevator are currently trading at $12.50-$14.50 per bushel, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. Meanwhile, yellow bids can be found in the $11.50-$12.95 per bushel range.

Meanwhile, new-crop green pea bids top out at $11.75 per bushel, while yellow pea bids range anywhere from $9.50 to $12.50 per bushel.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Besides the turning of the calendar New Year, Lechler said the upcoming Chinese New Year has slowed export demand for yellow and green peas. He noted celebrations go on for up to two and half weeks, which generates a lack of sales and in turn weighs on prices.

“Yellows were still at [$11 per bushel]. We were up as far as $11.25 in December. We were at $10.40 on the green peas, and we are down to $10.25 right now,” Lechler said (figures in US$ except where noted).

“A lot of the export market on pea stuff hinges on the Asian market,” he said, adding that domestic sales have weakened as well, due to slow movement around New Year’s.

“Domestically, we have seen a lot of the government sales pushed out toward March,” Lechler said.

As of Monday yellow pea prices in North Dakota dropped 25 cents/bu. over the last week and were sitting at $8.50 to $11, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Green peas garnered the same prices but have remained steady over the same period of time. Converted into Canadian dollars, that works out to C$11.38-$14.72/bu. for yellows and greens.

In comparison to western Canadian prices, Prairie Ag Hotwire said yellow peas were C$11.50-$12/bu., having dipped four Canadian cents on the week. Green peas on the other hand gained 20 Canadian cents and were sitting at C$13-$13.50 bu.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“North American peas are more expensive than the peas coming out of Eastern Europe. A lot of that product is going to China,” he said.

Exports out of Canada to China are pretty much a trickle of what they would normally be at this time of year, which only compounded the current situation, he said. That included east European peas being significantly cheaper than those available from Canada.

“With the amount of peas we have this year, we got lots of inventory to sell yet,” Hamilton said.

Statistics Canada’s production report on Dec. 2 pegged the country’s dry pea production for 2022-23 at 3.42 million tonnes, for a jump of nearly 52 per cent compared to the previous crop year. However, it’s also over 25 per cent less than what came off Canadian fields in 2020-21.

Hamilton noted a small portion of Canadian-grown peas has been going to the North American pet food industry.

“There’s a limit to that market. It’s a little slow these days,” he continued, adding the holiday lull hasn’t helped the current malaise in the pea market. He pointed to a drop in farmer deliveries to processors and elevators.

“The lack of farmer selling has dropped the prices a little bit because there is some demand, although not huge at this point,” he said.

He also pointed to prices over the last two years as being historically high and now commodities are moving lower. He said he expects pea prices to soften going into 2023.

Over the last week pea prices have remained steady, with no price movement, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Green peas for 2022-23 stood at $13-$14 per bushel delivered to the elevator and yellows were $12-$13.25/bu. New-crop peas ranged from $11.60 to $12/bu. delivered for greens and $10-$11 for yellows.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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End users were active buyers of yellow peas in recent months, but many are now filled up which is causing prices to soften, according to Levon Sargsyan, grain broker with Johnston’s Grain.

“They’re buying too much,” he said, adding that with previously contracted yields beating expectations in some cases, there were also end users who were now looking to unload some of their excess supply.

Canadian farmers have delivered 1.2 million tonnes of peas into the commercial system through the first 16 weeks of the 2022-23 marketing year, according to Canadian Grain Commission data. That was up by 20 per cent from the same time a year ago.

For green peas, prices have strengthened in the past month and are now holding steady, said.

Maple peas can be a spotty market, but have seen some strong demand recently, with most of the movement to China for sprouting, Sargsyan said.

“Whenever China comes in, all of the companies here start buying (maple peas) aggressively.”

He placed current yellow pea bids in the $12-$12.50 per bushel range, with green peas trading at around $13.50-$14 per bushel. Maple peas are in the $16-$16.50 per bushel area, picked up on the farm.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“They want to get done harvest before they worry about (pricing),” said grain broker Dale McManus of Johnston’s Grain at Welwyn, Sask. “Once everything is in the bin, you’ll see things loosen up and start moving.”

After the poor crop in 2021, producers are more reluctant sellers — keeping a closer eye on their costs as well, he said.

McManus described yields and quality for peas as highly varied across the Prairies, with pockets of rain, pockets of hail and other areas that were still too dry. However, pea production was still up overall on the year.

Statistics Canada releases updated production estimates on Wednesday, with little change from the 3.61 million tonnes forecast in August expected. Canada grew 2.26 million tonnes of peas in 2021-22.

McManus noted green peas were accounting for less and less of the total pea crop grown in Western Canada, as increased capacity of protein plants processing yellow peas has increased the demand for that crop.

Bids for both green and yellow peas were topping out at around $12 per bushel in the latest Prairie Ag Hotwire report. Green peas have lost as much as $1.50 per bushel off the top end over the past month, while yellow peas were only down by about 50 cents.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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