Overview

We start this forecast period off with an area of low pressure over far northern Manitoba that is slowly moving off into Hudson Bay. To the west, an area of low pressure is developing over the Yukon which is helping to develop a weak ridge of high pressure over Alberta. Over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba weak high pressure is in place.

The weather models are showing the Yukon on a low slowly drifting east wards. This low looks to bring some unsettled weather to the northern half of Alberta on Thursday and Friday before it begins to drop southeastwards bringing unsettled weather to Saskatchewan and Manitoba over the weekend. At this time, it does not look like this system will bring large amounts of precipitation but there is the potential for around 15 mm of rain over eastern Manitoba which desperately needs it to help fight the forecast fires.

This low looks to spin off to the east of the prairies by Monday allowing for a building ridge of high pressure over the western Prairies to move eastwards. This ridge looks to bring sunny skies and warm temperatures right across the prairies to end this forecast period. As usual, with sunny skies and warm temperatures, there is always a chance of afternoon thunderstorms!

Alberta

This forecast period will start off with a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of the odd shower or thundershower as weak instability moves across the province thanks to an area of low pressure moving through the Yukon. Temperatures look to be seasonable with daytime highs in the 20 to 23 C range with overnight lows falling to around 10 C.
The Yukon low is forecasted to slide southeastwards over the weekend allowing upper ridging to build across the region. Expect plenty of sunshine along with slowly warming temperatures. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the mid to upper twenties by Sunday or Monday and should continue into at least the first half of next week. The weather models are hinting at a weak area of low pressure developing early next week which, if it does develop, could bring some thunderstorms to central and southern regions.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

We start this forecast period off with an area of low pressure slowly sliding off into Hudson Bay. The counterclockwise flow around this low will push some slightly cooler air into both regions with daytime high right around the 20 C mark. With the cooler air and strong sunshine, we can expect some afternoon cloudiness along with the odd shower or thundershower. Areas experiencing widespread smoke will see slightly cooler temperatures and also a suppression of the afternoon clouds and showers.

Over the weekend an area of low pressure is forecasted to drop southeastwards out of northwestern Canada and is expected to be situated over southern Manitoba by Sunday morning. Confidence in the timing and track of this low is not that high, but should it materialize as forecasted, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies along with widespread showers across Saskatchewan on Friday and over southern and central Manitoba on Saturday and Sunday.

This low will move off to the east by Monday allowing for the western ridge of high pressure to build across these regions. This ridge will bring plenty of sunshine to start the week along with warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid to upper twenties, with lows in the 12 to 15 C range.

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The second area of low pressure developed as forecasted but it stayed further south than expected. A trough of low pressure extended to the northwest and brought clouds and showers to much of Southern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba to end the long weekend.

Over Alberta, central and northern regions saw the expected average May weather over the long weekend, while regions to the south were cooler with showers.

Overview

For this forecast period, it seems set to dry out and warm up. I suppose that’s good for the areas that recently received significant rainfall and not so good for those regions dealing with fires.

Currently there is a large area of low pressure south of the Great Lakes with a trough of low-pressure stretching northwestwards to an area of low pressure over the Yukon. This trough will bring plenty of clouds across the Prairies on Wednesday. A good portion of Alberta and Saskatchewan should see showers while Manitoba just deals with clouds.

This trough will start to break down on Thursday as weak upper-level ridging tries to build across the western Prairies. Further east, Arctic high pressure will settle into Northwestern Ontario. This high will help clear out the eastern Prairies. While the air associated with the high will start out on the cool side, the coldest air will be well to the east of the Prairies and the strong, late spring sun will quickly warm the air mass.

The upper ridge and east high should bring a prolonged sunny period accompanied by generally light winds. Temperatures will start off in the upper teens and will warm into the mid-twenties by late in the weekend. They may move into the upper twenties or low thirties by the early part of next week.

Alberta

This forecast period will start off cloudy with showers as a trough of low pressure works its way through the province. By Thursday the trough will weaken and lift off to the east. This will bring clear skies.

An upper ridge of high pressure will begin building in, which will help to boost temperatures back into the low twenties by the weekend. Some of the weather models show some instability sticking around on Thursday and Friday. This could trigger some afternoon showers or thundershowers.

Over the weekend, skies look to clear as the upper ridge continues to build. Expect sunny skies through the weekend and into at least the first half of next week. Along with the sunny skies will come warm, summery temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the mid-twenties by late in the weekend and in the upper twenties to low thirties for most of next week.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

One more day of clouds across these provinces as the upper trough of low pressure finally weakens and breaks up. Saskatchewan looks to see a few more showers on Wednesday while Manitoba looks to miss any more rain. Temperatures will be mildest over Manitoba due to thinner cloud cover and no precipitation.

The weather models then show an area of high pressure settling into northern or northwestern Ontario. While the core of this high will be on the cool side, it should be far enough away that we should not get too cold. In fact, the clockwise rotation around the high will help draw mild air to the west thanks to a building upper ridge over that region.

The building upper ridge to our west, combined with the large area of high pressure to our east, should result in sunny skies through the weekend and into next week. Along with the sunny skies, winds look to be relatively light for most of this forecast period which is good news for regions fighting fires.

What isn’t good news is that there looks to be little to no precipitation, and we will see temperatures warming towards the mid-twenties by late in the weekend. We could see mid to upper twenties by the middle of next week.

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The Tomsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Krasnoyarsk regions have all declared state of emergencies this month, a formal designation which allows farmers to claim compensation and insurance payments.

In 2023, the combined harvest of grain and legume crops in the Altai region amounted to almost 5.0 million tons.

Taken together, the five affected regions accounted for about eight per cent of last year’s grain harvest in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter.

“Having collected detailed information from agricultural producers, the Hydro-meteorological Center and other experts, colleagues in government proposed introducing a state of emergency in the territory of the region, associated with excessive soil moisture,” Viktor Tomenko, the regional governor, said on his official Telegram channel.

“At today’s meeting of the commission a decision was made (to introduce a state of emergency) – the necessary documents were prepared”, he added.

Over a dozen Russian grain-producing regions have been hit by extreme weather, from early spring frosts to drought in recent months. The bad weather has affected an area of more than 1.1 million hectares, officials say.

Many southern regions, key for grain production, are suffering from drought, which could lead to sowing problems for the new crop.

Despite the losses, Russia has maintained its official grain harvest forecast at 132 million metric tons, a 10% drop compared to last year, and its export forecast at 60 million tons.

—Reporting for Reuters by Olga Popova

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The weather conditions are expected to persist through the January-March period next year, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

La Niña, a climate pattern that begins with colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to both floods and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean.

La Niña is expected to bring less rain and worsening drought conditions which could affect agriculture globally.

The cycle between El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years.

Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said that there was a 60 per cent chance of a La Niña phenomenon occurring from now until winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

Brazilian soybean farmers could produce 14 per cent more in the 2024/2025 season, compared with the previous one, a Reuters poll showed, as expectations of more rain in the last quarter of the year rise.

“The agricultural and livestock sectors are clearly most at risk from the effects of La Niña with many of these areas key for the production for crops such as soybeans and corn,” David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics said.

“The typical La Niña may not materialize if the signal is weak. However, the main area to watch for dryness concerns and crop production reductions is the crop lands of Argentina, Uruguay and southeast Brazil during their summer,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

—Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru

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As the Weather Network projected fewer than normal fall storms through to the end of October but warned those systems that do arise “could still pack quite a punch,” the outlook said. After that, more storms are expected during the transition into winter.

The network said a key variable will be a weak La Niña developing towards November that could generate cooler than normal ocean weather temperatures in the central to southern Pacific Ocean.

In terms of Western Canada, the jetstream has been projected to essentially divide British Columbia and Alberta from the rest of the region with fall temperatures turning cooler before those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. As well, portions of B.C. and southern Alberta is to receive above normal precipitation.

Meanwhile the eastern half of the Prairies is expected to see near normal levels of fall precipitation, with part of Manitoba’s Interlake and east to get below normal levels. As for temperatures, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are likely to get above normal weather for most of the fall with some colder than normal days in October.

The outlooks for Ontario and Quebec highlighted a slower shift from summer to fall temperatures, with precipitation to be near to below normal. Although fewer storms are expected for both provinces, the Weather Network said a couple of systems could be quite powerful.

Atlantic Canada has been forecast to alternate between warmer than normal temperatures to those cooler than normal. While much of the region is to be drier than normal, the areas around Halifax, St. John’s and Charlottetown could be wetter than normal. Aside from tropical storms, fewer systems are in the works.

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Pasture conditions in much of Saskatchewan were diminishing due to the hot and dry conditions. While sporadic rainfall in north and east parts of the province will benefit later seeded crops as they mature, but came too late for early seeded crops.

Harvest progress came in at six per cent complete, which was slightly ahead of the five-year average of five per cent done. The southwest was the furthest ahead in the province at 16 per cent harvest complete. The southeast trails behind with 11 per cent of crops harvested. The harvest has yet to start in both northwest and northeast Saskatchewan.

Winter wheat and fall rye harvested acres greatly increased in the last week. Provincially, 55 per cent of winter wheat was harvested and 42 per cent of fall rye. Pulse crop harvest continued with 28 per cent of lentils and 26 per cent of field peas harvested. Eight per cent of barley crops, three per cent of durum and two per cent of spring wheat have been combined. Harvest progress for oilseeds was insignificant as only one per cent of canola and mustard were harvested.

Cropland topsoil moisture was 29 per cent adequate, 48 per cent short and 23 per cent very short. Hayland topsoil moisture was 24 per cent adequate, 47 per cent short and 29 per cent very short. Pasture topsoil moisture was 16 per cent adequate, 47 per cent short and 37 per cent very short.

The limited rainfall in Saskatchewan was impacting livestock water supplies and some livestock producers were concerned about water availability for their animals. Provincially, one per cent of livestock water supplies were severely short and 31 per cent moderately short. When asking producers if they are concerned about water availability on their farm, 77 per cent indicated they aren’t concerned while 23 per cent said they were.

The majority of crop damage in Saskatchewan during the week was from dry conditions paired with hot temperatures. Grasshopper damage to crops was also reported during the period.

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November canola futures hit a contract low of C$585.00 per tonne on Aug. 6, while domestic wheat bids fell to their lowest levels in years as the U.S. futures traded near their softest levels since 2020.

A lack of any significant weather threats across the Midwest was likely to keep the bias pointed lower in the U.S. soybean, corn and wheat futures until something changes the narrative, according to Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago. Soybeans in the U.S. were rated 68 per cent good-to-excellent as of Aug. 5 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which compares with only 54 per cent at the same time the previous year. Corn was in similar shape at 67 per cent good-to-excellent, marking a 10-point improvement on the year.

“There’s no story here to drive (futures) significantly higher… we need a story,” said Lusk, adding “if we turn hot and dry for the rest of the month that would bend this thing back up, but there’s nobody calling for that.” Even if it does turn dry, at this point of the growing season he noted soybeans were already setting pods and corn is past the pollination stage.

Eventually speculators will look to take profits and cover their short positions, but Lusk noted that every previous attempt at correcting higher was met with renewed selling and he expected a sustained rally was unlikely in the absence of fresh weather concerns.

While Western Canada also started the growing season on a relatively favourable footing, conditions have deteriorated – especially in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The provincial crop report from Saskatchewan for the week ended Aug. 5 pointed to a decline in yield potential for many commodities.

“At one point we were looking at a record crop, but it’s probably closer to average now,” said Lawrence Klusa, president of Seges Markets in Winnipeg, pointing to the lack of rain in many growing regions over the past month. However, he added that the expectations for large U.S. soybean supplies, slow U.S. export sales, and weakness in crude oil were all weighing on the oilseed markets in general.

“There’s a recognition that canola will not be the crop it was, at least not what people thought it would be even a few weeks ago,” said MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville.

However, “if canola has a problem, it’s a soybean problem not a canola problem,” said Jubinville adding “as long as the soybeans are sluggish it will be difficult to maintain a rally in canola.” He added that the 2023/24 canola crop was possibly understated by as much as 500,000 tonnes by Statistics Canada.

While the bearish influence of the soybean market was weighing on canola, the price weakness should be making Canadian exports look more competitive to international buyers. Problems with the rapeseed crop in Europe could also be supportive going forward, according to Klusa.

Wheat crops in Europe were also being hurt by excoff. Although, “for right now, there seems to be sufficient (wheat) supply relative to demand,” according to essive moisture, with the two Canadian analysts expecting the wheat market could be showing signs of leveling Jubinville.

“The upside potential is not great in the major crops, (but) there might be more hope in some of the special crops,” said Klusa pointing to pulses and durum as markets with possible room for some relative strength as Canada is a major player in the world markets for those commodities.

However, while durum should maintain a premium over spring wheat, he cautioned that prices were unlikely to see the same strength as they did a year ago.

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Extreme weather events such as early spring frosts, floods, and summer heat have affected this year’s harvest outlook in some key producing areas of Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter.

“Despite the extremely challenging climatic conditions of 2024, the grain harvest forecast remains at 132 million tons,” Patrushev told an industry meeting. This is down from a record 158 million tons in 2022 and 145 million tons last year.

The agriculture ministry officials have said earlier that the current forecast can be revised depending on the progress of the harvest.

Patrushev said farmers in 55 regions of Russia have begun harvesting the new crop, and the pace of harvesting is twice as fast as last year, with 40 per cent of the grain and legume fields already harvested and almost 64 million tons collected.

—Reporting for Reuters by Gleb Bryanski

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Sprague in southeastern Manitoba received the most rainfall at 51.3 millimetres, with Reedy Creek in the northwest region close behind at 44.5 mm. Many communities across the province had no precipitation at all. Since May 1, most areas in Manitoba have exceeded 110 per cent of normal precipitation. Cumulative growing degree days since May 1 was between 95 to 110 per cent of normal for most of the province.

Early fall rye fields may start being harvested this week. Meanwhile, other fall rye and winter wheat fields have dried down while developing into anywhere between the hard dough and physiologically mature stages. Oats and spring wheat fields were in the soft to hard dough stages. The Interlake and northwest regions had their spring wheat crops rated at 80 per cent good to excellent, while the central region was at 75 per cent, the eastern region was at 70 per cent and the southwest was at 65 per cent. Early seeded barley was in the soft dough stage.

The earliest seeded canola crops were already filling pods with flower drop complete. The last canola fields seeded were in full flower while being applied with fungicide. Most sunflowers were in the R4 (inflorescence opening) growth stage, although some were in the R3 (bud elongation) and R5.1 (10 per cent flowering) stages. Aside from flooded and saturated areas, flax fields were in good condition in growth stages 9 (late flowering with most capsules formed) and 10 (white seeds in capsules and lower leaves yellowing).

While some fields, mostly in the eastern region, were adversely affected by excess moisture, peas were in the R4 and R5 stages. The hot humid conditions helped soybeans advance to the R2 and R3 stages, with earlier seeded fields at full pod (R4). However, iron deficiency chlorosis can still be found in some fields.

High humidity in previous weeks prevented curing of hay swaths, as well as reduced hay quality and led growers to use grass instead of hay for bale silage. Drier conditions allowed for progress to be made on first cut beef hay. Hay yields were reported to be between 2.5 to three bushels per acre. However, forage stands may be lacking in quality due to the humid conditions. Most dairy farms have taken a second cut of alfalfa silage, while first cut for tame hay for beef farms were nearly finished. Early seeded silage crops were expected to be harvested this week, while corn silage fields advanced due to high temperatures.

Dugouts for livestock were 85 per cent full while pastures and forage crops have shown strong growth. Pairs of cattle are grazing and bulls were placed with cows, but herds were clumping together to guard themselves from flies.

The Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation (MASC) released its seeded area estimates for numerous crops in Manitoba in the province’s crop report. Canola was the most widely grown crop in Manitoba in 2024 at 3.034 million acres, up 2.3 per cent from the previous year. There were 2.580 million acres of spring wheat seeded in 2024, down 4.7 per cent from last year, while soybeans totaled 1.213 million acres, down 18.9 per cent from 2023.

Oats gained more than 121,000 acres from last year at 403,294 in 2024, while dry beans and field peas had more modest increases. Winter wheat, barley, flax and sunflowers showed declines from the previous year.

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The current neutral phase between La Niña and El Niño weather patterns is expected to continue for several months, with a 79 per cent chance of La Niña November through January, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

La Niña, a climate pattern that begins with colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to both floods and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean. The cycle between El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years.

Experts have said Latin America and the Caribbean should brace for the arrival of La Niña.

In rice- and palm oil-producing Southeast Asian countries, meanwhile, wet weather could boost yields, while a normal Indian monsoon could support production and farm incomes.

“The transition to La Niña will favor at least normal rainfall across the main growing areas in India… The main areas to watch for crop and supply chain issues look to be across southeast Europe, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

“In our view, a transition to La Niña conditions, which the U.S. National Weather Service consider more likely than not to occur in July-September 2024, will support a rebound in rice production in Southeast Asia, areas of which had seen below-average rainfall during the now dissipated 2023-2024 El Niño event,” analysts at BMI said in a note on Wednesday.

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