The paper, released ahead of this week’s triennial WTO Ministerial meeting in Cameroon, underscores the U.S. Trade Representative’s insistence on sweeping reforms that are in line with U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade agenda and allow for more plurilateral trade agreements and differentiated tariffs.

• U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is expected to attend the March 26-29 ministerial meeting in Yaoundé.
• USTR has already rejected one proposal for reforming the WTO.
• The meeting in Cameroon comes at a critical moment for the WTO as Trump continues to upend the tariff system.
• U.S. says adherence to the Most Favored Nation principle and tariffs negotiated decades ago precludes WTO members from differentiating among trade partners.
• Without naming China, USTR quoted a January speech by Greer in which he said that some countries structurally export more than they import to seek a “shortcut to growth at others’ expense.”
• “In sum, members need to explore options so that they can more easily adjust their tariffs in response to threats to their economies, including from countries that run persistent and large surpluses or drive imbalances by building and maintaining overcapacity,” USTR said.
• The World Trade Organization’s 164 members commit to treating other members equally so they can all benefit from each other’s lowest tariffs, highest import quotas and fewest trade barriers. This principle is known as Most Favored Nation treatment.

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Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

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Companies should “strictly implement capacity control measures, scientifically arrange production and operation, orderly reduce the number of breeding sows, and control the number of pigs slaughtered in a reasonable manner,” the statement read.

The remarks were made during a meeting with representatives from the country’s hog producers, the state planner said.

— Reporting by Xiuhao Chen and Ryan Woo

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China is among the largest fertilizer exporters – shipping more than $13 billion (C$17.8 billion) worth of it last year – and it has a history of controlling exports to keep prices low for farmers.

Shipments through the war-blocked Strait of Hormuz account for roughly one-third of the sea-borne supply. In mid-March, Beijing banned exports of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends and certain phosphate varieties, sources told Reuters.

WHY IT MATTERS: International urea prices have risen by around 40 per cent from pre-war levels as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocks roughly one third of the supply and contributes to higher production costs.

The ban, which has not been formally unveiled, was reported earlier this week by Bloomberg News.

Added to existing bans and export quotas for urea, only a handful of fertilizers – notably ammonium sulphate – can be exported, five sources said. That would mean between half and three quarters of China’s exports last year are restricted, potentially up to 40 million metric tons, according to a Reuters estimate.

“This pattern is consistent: China restricts supplies rather than coming to the rescue during global tightness,” said Matthew Biggin, a senior commodities analyst at BMI.

“The export restrictions exist because of their tight domestic balance – they’re prioritising food security and insulating their domestic market from price shocks.”

Beijing’s curbs, like its move last week to ban refined fuel exports, come as governments limit exports of products whose inputs have been threatened by disruption from the war, worsening shortages and higher prices around the world.

International urea prices have risen by around 40 per cent from pre-war levels. In China, urea futures are near a 10-month high.

Dependent on China

Last year, China sent Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand roughly a fifth of their fertilizer imports and that figure stood at a third for Malaysia and New Zealand, according to International Trade Centre data. For India, it was around 16 per cent, according to its trade data.

Between half and 80 per cent of those exports are now restricted, according to a Reuters analysis of Chinese customs data.

“Buyers were hoping China would step in and fill the supply gap, but this decision will only tighten supplies further,” a New Delhi-based fertilizer company official said, in reference to the recent restrictions.

The company official declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

India, which imported more than 40 per cent of its urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer, and DAP, a blend, from the Middle East last year, has requested China issue export quotas for urea.

When will exports resume?

The Philippines on Wednesday said China had assured it that fertilizer exports would not be restricted.

Asked about the comments a day later, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson referred the question to other departments.

China’s General Administration of Customs, National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

At a fertilizer conference in Shanghai attended by Reuters on Wednesday, five salespeople said they did not expect the fertilizer bans to be lifted before August, after China’s peak June-to-August export period.

Producers are watching for signals from the government after spring planting to see whether bans would be extended.

In December, the state-linked fertilizer association urged major producers to suspend exports of phosphate fertilizers until August.

“Most folks who follow this very, very closely are expecting them to continue to extend the export bans,” said Caitlin Welsh, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“China is so reluctant to do anything that would increase the price of grains, especially animal feed, domestically.”

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The sources told Reuters that the “candid and constructive” Paris talks led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng would set in motion possible “deliverables” for Trump’s trip to China to meet with Xi at the end of March.

But they added that the leaders would have the final say on the proposals.

Agricultural goods

The Chinese side showed openness to potential additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods including poultry, beef and non-soybean row crops, one of the sources said, adding that China was still committed to buy 25 million metric tons of American soybeans for each of the next three years.

Chinese officials left the talks at OECD headquarters in Paris without speaking to reporters. The discussions follow several meetings to ease tensions last year between Bessent, He, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang.

“All these meetings were to create stability, and today was remarkably stable,” one of the sources said of the talks.

Spokespersons for the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office declined to characterize the discussions on Sunday.

Managed trade mechanism

The two sides discussed the establishment of new formal mechanisms to help manage trade and investment between the world’s two largest economies that may be considered by Trump and Xi in Beijing, the sources said. Technical talks on the proposed U.S.-China “Board of Trade” and “Board of Investment” were expected on Monday.

One of the sources said that the Board of Trade was the more developed of the two proposals, and would be aimed at finding products and sectors where the U.S. and China could increase trade in a balanced way without compromising each other’s national security or critical supply chains.

The Board of Investment would not set broad investment policies but would address “discrete investment issues” that may arise between the countries, the source said.

Critical minerals

The sources also said U.S. officials discussed the flow of Chinese-produced critical minerals to U.S. companies and raised concerns about the U.S. aerospace industry’s lack of access to yttrium from China, which is used in jet engine turbines, among other applications.

One of the sources said the two sides “found some ways to loosen up” more challenging areas in critical minerals, but did not provide specifics.

Greer and Bessent in the talks also emphasized the U.S. desire for China to increase purchases of Boeing jetliners and U.S. coal, oil and natural gas, which could be further discussed on Monday, the sources said.

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The decision aims to ensure adequate supply during peak agricultural demand, the China Agricultural Means of Production Association said in a statement, instructing storage firms to sell reserves to support orderly trading and stabilize prices.

“This year’s release is at least 15 days earlier than previous cycles. Some farmers in Henan and Shandong have been complaining about phosphate fertilizer shortages in recent days,” said a Beijing-based fertilizer analyst, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The release includes nitrogen, phosphate and compound fertilizers. China’s fertilizers are normally released once a year before spring plowing season.

Early emergency releases are usually launched in the event of market shortages or price fluctuations, the analyst said.

China restricting exports

The early drawdown of reserves follows a series of warnings from state-linked industry bodies urging producers not to hoard supplies or raise prices as farmers across the country prepare for spring planting.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut down regional fertilizer plants and severely disrupted shipping routes, threatening supplies to key global importers like India as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere gear up for planting.

The global fertilizer market was already tight, with China restricting exports this year to secure domestic supply, analysts said.

China, the world’s largest producer of urea – a nitrogen-based fertilizer – tightly controls exports via quotas and has issued no permits for shipments this year.

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could reduce global output, although China remains on track to produce a record 76.5 million tons of urea this year, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association said.

— Reporting by Daphne Zhang, Ethan Wang and Lewis Jackson

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The tariff rate for canola seed is 14.9 per cent, effective March 1, Global Affairs Canada said in a news release.

Canada and China struck an initial trade deal in January when Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Beijing. Canada agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in return for lower tariffs on goods like canola.

“Canada’s farmers, ranchers, and processors succeed when markets are open and trade is predictable,” said Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Heath MacDonald in the news release.

“The suspension and reduction of tariffs on agriculture products, in addition to the restoration of market access for Canadian beef, pet food and animal genetics exports to China, deliver real opportunities for Canadian producers, businesses and workers,” he added.

As of March 1, Canada implemented a quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles and extended the remission of surtaxes for certain Chinese steel and aluminum products.

The announcement makes no mention of pork or canola oil.

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The announcement came a day after China said it would suspend some tariffs on Canadian agricultural products imposed during its trade spat with Canada.

WHY IT MATTERS: This final ruling lowers the effective tariff on canola seed to 14.9 per cent rather than the crippling 75.8 per cent tariffs imposed last March.

The final anti-dumping tariff was lowered to 5.9 per cent from a preliminary 75.8 per cent imposed in August, according to a statement from the commerce ministry. The levy will be effective from March 1 and will last for five years.

In addition to the anti-dumping duty, Canadian canola remains subject to China’s standard nine per cent import tariff, bringing the total effective duty to 14.9 per cent.

The outcome broadly aligns with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s expectations. After his visit to Beijing in January, Carney had said he anticipated a total tariff rate of around 15 per cent.

China was Canada’s second-largest market for canola in 2024.

Wheat Growers underscore need for market stability

The reduction in tariffs is a positive development for Prairie canola growers said Wheat Growers Association chair Daryl Fransoo in a statement on Monday. Many Prairie farmers grow canola alongside wheat as part of their cropping rotation.

However, past disruptions underscore the need for long-term market stability.

“China has restricted or closed its canola market several times in the past, often tied to broader political tensions rather than technical trade issues,” Fransoo said. “These repeated interruptions are a clear reminder of why our relationship with the United States remains essential.”

Safeguarding Canadian agriculture amidst the review of the CUSMA trade deal should be a national priority, the Wheat Growers said.

The organization also urged Canada to accelerate development of a domestic biofuel sector.

Wave of visits to Beijing

China’s decision comes amid a wave of visits to Beijing by Western leaders, including Carney, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies have strained Washington’s traditional alliances. China has sought to present itself as a more stable and reliable economic partner in contrast.

Carney went further than his European counterparts by securing a deal with China and signalling Canada’s ambition to play a leading role in a new global trade order aimed at reducing dependence on the United States.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday that its probe determined that imported canola from Canada involved dumping and harmed China’s domestic rapeseed industry.

The new levies “can alleviate pressure on the domestic sector and help maintain healthy and stable development of the industry.”

The ministry added that the ruling was based on facts and evidence, and also took into account reasonable requests of the Canadian side.

“China is willing to work with Canada to continue deepening economic and trade cooperation between the two countries and enhance the well-being of the people on both sides,” the ministry said.

— Reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Shanghai newsroom

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China will suspend 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian canola meal and pea imports and will halt 25 per cent tariffs on lobster and crab imports from March 1 through the end of 2026, the finance ministry said in a statement.

The outcome broadly aligns with Carney’s expectations. But the Chinese announcement made no mention of canola seed tariffs, which Carney had previously said would be lowered by March 1.

WHY IT MATTERS: China is suspending what were crippling tariffs on Canadian canola meal and peas, however Friday’s statement made no mention of canola seed or pork.

Ottawa expected Beijing to lower canola seed tariffs to a combined rate of about 15 per cent from the current 84 per cent. A probe into Canadian canola is set to conclude on March 9, the Chinese commerce ministry has said.

“One thing we do know is that Chinese buyers have been booking Canadian canola cargoes for March already. That gives me a pretty high degree of confidence that they’re going to follow through on the reduced tariff rate,” said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

Canola oil and pork were also not mentioned in the statement. But Beijing could still announce further adjustments by the March 1 deadline previewed by Carney.

China was Canada’s second largest market for canola in 2024.

The suspensions come amid a wave of visits to Beijing by Western leaders as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies have strained Washington’s traditional alliances. China has sought to present itself as a more stable and reliable economic partner in contrast.

Carney went further than his European counterparts by securing a deal with China and signalling Canada’s ambition to play a leading role in a new global trade order aimed at reducing dependence on the United States.

During his China trip, Carney pledged to allow into Canada up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a tariff of 6.1 per cent on most-favoured-nation terms.

— Reporting by Ella Cao, Xiuhao Chen, Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson

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Last year, lower U.S. soy sales to China allowed Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, to ship 85.4 million metric tons to China, an 18 per cent increase from 2024, according to Brazilian government data.

Though Hedgepoint has not released an exact forecast for Brazilian shipments to China, its bet is that Brazil’s soy sales to China may increase even after President Donald Trump said the world’s biggest importer would buy more beans from U.S. farmers this year.

China is expected to raise imports by 4 million metric tons to 112 million tons in 2026, according to Hedgepoint, creating demand that either Brazil or the U.S. could supply.

“Argentina will export less this year because its crop is smaller,” said Luiz Fernando Roque, a Hedgepoint Global analyst. “That already puts another 4 or 5 million tons in the hands of the Americans or Brazil.”

Regarding Argentina specifically, aside from a smaller projected soy crop, the country tends to focus on domestic processing to make soymeal and oil, Roque said.

In 2025, the U.S. share of China’s soybean imports fell to 15 per cent, from 21 per cent the year before, while Brazil’s rose to 73.6 per cent, up from 71 per cent in 2024, according to Hedgepoint data.

Argentina’s share jumped to seven per cent, from four per cent, according to Chinese government data.

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