• Solid crush data released Tuesday remained supportive for soyoil, helping underpin beans. Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 221.564 million bushels of soybeans in the United States in January, which was a record for the month and up 10.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.
• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House later this week.
• Rainfall in southern Brazil helped improve crop conditions, reducing concerns over hot and dry weather in the area. Meanwhile, the harvest was progressing in central and northern growing regions.
• Optimism over increased sales to China remained supportive for values, although the Lunar New Year holiday was limiting business.

WHEAT futures corrected higher amid ideas recent losses were overdone.

• Concerns over cold temperatures damaging winter wheat in parts of Ukraine were supportive.
• Warmer weather and dryness concerns in parts of the U.S. Plains were also supportive.

CORN futures were up in sympathy with wheat, with positioning ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Ag Outlook Forum a feature.

• The USDA will release its first projections for 2026/27 supply and demand as part of the Ag Outlook Forum, with early trade estimates predicting a reduction in corn acreage and increases in soybean area.

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A weaker dollar also underpinned grains and soybeans.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active December corn was up 3-3/4 cents at $4.21-3/4 per bushel.

Dec wheat rose 4-1/2 cents to $5.23-3/4 a bushel, Nov soybeans rose 6-3/4 cents to $10.33-3/4 a bushel.

Dealers were positioning ahead of world supply and demand reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday, including U.S. corn and soybean harvests.

Corn yields are still expected to be huge, but Jim McCormick, co-founder of AgMarket.net, said they may fall below some previous estimates.

“Most in the industry are looking for the crop to get smaller,” said McCormick, with a dry August having been less favorable for crop development.

Analysts in a Reuters poll on average estimated corn and soybean condition ratings would be down two points from the previous week in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly report due to be released on Monday afternoon.

However, a lack of Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans remains a bearish factor, said McCormick, with no substantive news from U.S./China trade talks.

Likewise, he said, the USDA is likely to revise feed usage lower in Friday’s report, with the ban on cattle imports from Mexico because of an epidemic of the screwworm parasite making a dent in corn demand.

Last week, S&P Global forecast U.S. corn and soybean production above the USDA’s August outlook. Other private forecasts last week projected yields and production below the USDA.

Wheat was also slightly firmer as the dollar softened, making U.S. exports cheaper and more competitive on the global export market.

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Chicago Board of Trade wheat also edged higher after concerns about big global supplies dragged the market to contract lows earlier this week.

Corn futures were near unchanged in the week while wheat futures fell for a fourth straight week as abundant supplies weighed on both markets. Soybeans posted a weekly gain for the first time in four weeks after a smaller-than-expected U.S. crop forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture this week.

“The risk is, at the moment, to the upside. The funds are short grains and oilseeds, and we’ve got that crop tour that starts on Monday,” said Craig Turner, a commodity broker at StoneX.

“If you’re short and you’re up and you’ve got a winning position, I don’t know why you wouldn’t take a little profit here heading into the weekend with the crop tour coming up.”

CBOT December corn settled up eight cents at $4.05-1/4 a bushel for a weekly decline of just 1/4 cent. November soybeans added 14 cents to settle at $10.42-1/2 a bushel, posting a 5.6 per cent weekly gain. CBOT September wheat was three cents higher at $5.06-1/2 a bushel, down 1.6 per cent in the week.

The Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour will estimate corn yields and gauge soybean production potential across seven states next week before issuing its crop outlook next Friday.

Grain traders will be monitoring findings after the USDA earlier this week projected a record-smashing U.S. corn harvest and smaller soybean crop.

A recent uptick in corn export demand, sparked by low prices, has limited further pressure in corn futures.

A stronger-than-expected July U.S. soybean crush, released at mid-session by the National Oilseed Processors Association, offered soybean futures an additional lift.

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Meanwhile, corn futures fell as traders awaited planting intentions data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and corn and soy dipped on responses to recent U.S. tariffs that could impact U.S. agricultural products.

The most active May wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 3-1/2 cents at $5.65 a bushel.

The contract rose on Monday to its highest since February 27 after reports of dust storms and high winds over the weekend in the U.S. Central and Southern Plains brought attention to drought conditions in the region and their impact on the wheat crop, said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX.

In data published after Monday’s market close, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 48 per cent of the winter wheat in top-producing state Kansas as good-to-excellent, down from 52 per cent the previous week.

Meanwhile, investors are monitoring the results of a call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin for any progress toward a ceasefire in Ukraine.

An end to the conflict is seen as potentially bearish for grain prices, according to analysts, as it could ease security and sanctions constraints on exports from Ukraine and Russia.

Tightening supplies and government export restrictions have slowed shipments from Russia in recent weeks, and Suderman said the boost to U.S. exports is already becoming apparent.

The USDA on Monday reported higher-than-expected weekly export inspections for wheat, while corn and soybean volumes were within a range of trade estimates.

CBOT soybeans fell 2-3/4 cents to $10.12-3/4 a bushel and CBOT May corn fell 2-1/4 cents to $4.58-3/4 a bushel.

Corn faces pressure from an expected increase in acreage when the USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, said Suderman, while corn and soy futures were weighed on by fears of retaliation against U.S. tariff policies by impacted countries like Mexico.

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Wheat had climbed to a 3-1/2-month peak as traders monitored drought in the important Black Sea region and signs of possible Russian export caps. Corn exceeded a three-month peak on Wednesday, underpinned by strength in crude oil against a backdrop of military escalation in the Middle East.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade pulled back 11-3/4 cents to $6.03-1/2 a bushel. The most-active Dec corn contract fell 4-1/4 cents to $4.28-1/4 a bushel.

“It’s a market that sets back, but you don’t really have a knock-out punch,” said Don Roose, founder of U.S. Commodities. “The funds continue to seasonally get out of their short positions.”

Soybeans futures also weakened on forecasts for rain in top producer Brazil, where dry conditions have slowed planting, analysts said.

Prices were supported by hot, dry weather in soybean-growing regions of the central U.S., Roose said. “The soybean moisture is just too dry and field loss is too high.”

Most-active Nov soybeans dropped 10 cents to $10.46 a bushel.

Wheat traders watched Russia, the biggest global supplier of the grain. Oryol on Wednesday became the latest region in Russia to declare a state of emergency because of poor sowing weather.

Little rain is forecast in Russian winter wheat zones as farmers try to progress with planting, though other parts of the Black Sea region, such as Ukraine and Romania, have received more significant rainfall.

Russia’s grain exporters’ union, meanwhile, has said that recent export volumes were excessive and called for a quota mechanism to limit shipments.

Ukrainian officials also said a Russian drone attack damaged a grain facility near the Danube, underscoring war risks to trade.

Meanwhile Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat-buyers, is planning to slash wheat imports and spend less on subsidized bread by adding corn or sorghum as ingredients, five industry sources briefed on the plans told Reuters.

 Additional reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra

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But corn and soybean prices still hovered near four-year lows on large global supplies and as forecasts for cool, rainy weather in the U.S. corn belt improved the crop outlook.

The most-active CBOT soybean contract Sv1 settled up 10-3/4 cents at $10.27-1/4 per bushel, while CBOT corn Cv1 ended up 4-3/4 cents at $4.03-1/4 per bushel. Both ended the week lower.

CBOT wheat Wv1 settled the day up 7 cents at $5.39 per bushel, and ended the week up 2.96%, as traders weighed the production impact of adverse weather in Europe and China.

The volatile trading began early Friday morning, after the U.S. Labor Department reported the U.S. unemployment rate had jumped to near a three-year high in July amid a significant slowdown in hiring and heightened market fears that the economy was vulnerable to a recession.

That in turn sent investors racing for safe havens, fuelling a sell-off in global equities, a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar USD/ and U.S. Treasury yields fell to multi-month lows. The VIX stock market volatility measure .VIX, dubbed Wall Street’s fear gauge, surged.

The ripple effects also rolled across U.S. agricultural markets, where cattle futures plunged on signs of algorithmic trading and grain and oilseed futures rallied, analysts said.

Speculators anticipating ample grain and soybean supplies have amassed large net short positions in CBOT soybeans, corn and wheat. Funds were net sellers of corn and soybeans and net buyers of wheat on Thursday, traders said.

“None of the fundamentals in grains or livestock have changed,” said Don Roose, president of US Commodities. “But the market is saying that the world is on fire, so there’s going to be flight to take cover.”

Additional reporting for Reuters by Nigel Hunt in London and Peter Hobson in Canberra

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Pressure came from decreases in Minneapolis spring wheat, Kansas City red winter wheat and Chicago white winter wheat. A measure of support came from a weaker Canadian dollar.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices were down C$3.40 to C$6.50 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$304.00 per tonne in western Manitoba to C$327.60 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$52.80 to C$76.40 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7426), CWRS bids ranged from US$225.80 to US$243.30 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$7.90 to US$25.50 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$5.90 to C$18.90 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat lost C$8.70 to C$9.70 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$258.90 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$284.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices dropped C$18.50 to C$21.50 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$404.00 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to C$421.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.

The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$6.8375 per bushel on Feb. 8, giving up 12.25 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$6.0100 per bushel on Feb. 8, falling 19.75 cents compared to a week ago.

The March Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.8850 per bushel on Jan. 11, losing 13 cents.

The Canadian dollar closed Feb. 8 at 74.26 U.S. cents, losing about a third of a cent during the week.

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During the week ended Jan. 11, there were declines in Minneapolis spring wheat, Kansas City and Chicago winter wheat.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices were down C$3.40 to up C$3.00 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$310.50 per tonne in western Manitoba to C$334.10 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$53.30 to C$76.90 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7458), CWRS bids ranged from US$231.60 to US$249.20 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$8.00 to US$25.70 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$6.00 to C$19.10 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat lost C$2.10 to gaining C$1.60 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$264.70 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$290.60 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices dipped by 40 cents to C$1.80 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$439.80 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to C$447.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.

The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$7.000 per bushel on Jan. 11, giving up 11.25 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$6.1600 per bushel on Jan. 11, losing 9.75 cents compared to a week ago.

The March Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$6.0375 per bushel on Jan. 11, also falling 9.75 cents.

The Canadian dollar closed Jan. 11 at 74.58 U.S. cents, losing three-tenths during the week.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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The changes come a day after the Detroit automaker warned a chip shortage would lead to a decline to vehicle volume in the current quarter.

Production at factories in Michigan, Chicago and in Cuautitlan, Mexico will be suspended. In Kansas City, production of F-150 pickup trucks will be idled while one shift will run for production of its Transit vans.

The Detroit automaker will also run a single shift or a reduced schedule at its factories in Dearborn, Kentucky and Louisville, while removing overtime at its Oakville factory in Ontario. The Oakville plant currently makes Edge and Lincoln Nautilus SUVs.

All changes will be in place for the week beginning Feb. 7.

Ford shares slumped on Friday, after the automaker posted smaller-than-expected quarterly income and forecast a slower recovery in 2022 vehicle production than rival General Motors.

However, the company said it expected vehicle volume to improve significantly in the second half.

— Reporting for Reuters by Hyunjoo Jin and Ben Klayman.

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CME Group, which owns the Chicago Board of Trade, said this week that most of the pits it closed in March because of the pandemic will remain shuttered indefinitely. The news disappointed some brokers who hoped to return to the trading floor this month and are looking for other ways to make money.

McGathey Commodities president Virginia McGathey, who trades in grain options pits, said her income dropped about 90 per cent since the shutdown. Her customers are executing orders for themselves, instead of coming to her, because she can no longer offer an advantage of being on the floor.

“The powers that be, in my opinion, were moving to try to get the floor closed,” McGathey said.

A CME spokeswoman declined to comment on whether the company intends to shut any trading pits permanently.

Open-outcry trading was a raucous tradition in which traders jostled and screamed to execute orders in pits packed with people. CME closed most futures pits in 2015 due to the rise of computerized trading, although more than 20 products like Eurodollar and grain options were still traded in pits.

The Eurodollar options pit will reopen Aug. 10 with a reconfiguration to allow for social distancing, while all others will stay closed until Chicago and Illinois move into the final stages of their economic reopening plans, CME said. That will not occur until there is a COVID-19 vaccine, a treatment that ensures adequate healthcare capacity or a sustained period without new cases of the virus, according to the state.

CME must be cautious about reopening pits because social distancing is impossible, CEO Terry Duffy told investors last month.

The London Metal Exchange’s open outcry trading floor may also remain closed for many more months because it cannot reopen under social distancing restrictions.

CME has a rule that it will keep pits alive as long as they account for 30 per cent of total trading volume. Eurodollar options are the only product that meets the threshold, Duffy said.

Floor brokers said health risks appear lower in the grain pits because they are less crowded than Eurodollars.

CME’s shutdown has pushed customers away from complex options trades the pits specialize in, the brokers said. The company said all strategies from the floor are being used electronically.

Agricultural brokerage Futures International will likely scale back its presence on the floor when and if CME reopens pits because floor employees have transitioned well to working in an office, president Gary Sandlund said.

“The longer that we go without a trading floor, people adapt and get comfortable with a new way of getting things done,” Sandlund said.

“Sadly it’s likely that it’s the end of a 180-year era.”

— Tom Polansek reports on agriculture and ag commodities for Reuters from Chicago.

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