The 40-per cent tariffs were removed by the White House to bring down beef prices and should result in Brazilian beef moving into the U.S. once again. Talk that the U.S. government was considering reopening the U.S./Mexico border to Mexican cattle once again also circulated the market.

The February live cattle contract lost 0.625 cents per pound at 214.775 cents. Feeder cattle were down 2.150 cents in the January contract at 314.225 cents per pound.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wholesale boxed beef prices were slightly firmer, with choice boxes up five cents at $371.28 per hundredweight and select boxes up $0.63 at $354.18/cwt.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released updated cattle on feed data after the markets closed. Cattle and calves on feed as of Nov. 1, 2025, were down two per cent from the same point a year ago, at 11.7 million head. There were 11. 4 million head on feed as of Oct. 1, 2025.

Placements at feedlots in October came in at 2.04 million head, which was down 10 per cent from the same month a year ago.

Lean hog prices were down 1.950 cents per pound in the February contract at 77.725 cents per pound.

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In mid-September, a group of Black Angus yearling steers off grass averaging 1,000 pounds traded for $465 per hundredweight southeast of Calgary. In central Alberta, Charolais steers off cows weighing 500 lb. sold for $735 per cwt.

There are a number of factors to consider moving forward that will result in lower prices. I’m not saying the market will fall apart, but the factors that contributed to the recent strength are starting to reverse course.

Feedlot operators have experienced a prolonged period of positive margins. Profitability in the finishing sector will likely continue through December. However, during the first quarter of 2026, feedlot margins will move into negative territory and fall further into red ink in the second quarter. Equity erosion in the finishing feedlot sector during the first half of 2026 will result in lower prices for replacement cattle.

The U.S. and Canadian economies will experience softer growth and higher unemployment, which will cause consumer spending to weaken. Wholesale beef prices are expected to trade lower through the remainder of 2025 and the first half of 2026 as beef demand weakens.

U.S. restaurant traffic during summer 2025 was up eight to 10 per cent from levels a year ago, while Canadian restaurant visits were up 20 to 30 per cent. During the first half of 2026, demand for beef will start to ease.

Restaurant traffic in 2026 is expected to be slightly below 2025. The key is that demand is not improving but rather stagnating or decreasing.

We’ve included our GDP projections for the first half of 2026. The U.S. has experienced stellar growth over the past year. U.S. corporate profits have been at record highs, which contributed to the lower unemployment and stronger consumer spending. Wages were rising and jobs were easy to come by. That will change in 2026.

In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. and Canada were contending with a growing job market and wage growth. This situation moderated in 2025. For 2026, job growth will be minimal and wage growth will subside.

The U.S. experienced limited job growth in summer 2025. From January through August, U.S. job growth totalled about 500,000. In Canada, employers shed about 38,000 jobs in the first eight months of 2025. (See the chart on quarterly GDP projections for the latter half of 2025 and the first half of 2026.)

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s economic model, GDPNow, pegs third-quarter GDP at 3.3 per cent. Financial industry estimates have U.S fourth-quarter GDP at two per cent, followed by first-quarter growth of only 1.5 per cent. As a rule of thumb, if GDP falls below two per cent the cattle market tends to weaken because consumer spending is not sufficient to sustain beef demand at the current levels.

There are a couple of points to consider involving the monthly chart of the feeder cattle futures from January 2009 to September 2025 I’ve included here. The Great Recession occurred in 2009, and feeder cattle futures traded below $100. The market rallied from 2010 through 2014. GDP topped out in the third quarter of 2014 at five per cent, and the feeder cattle futures peaked that September at $235.

During this five-year period, the market rallied about $140 from the 2009 recessionary low to the September 2014 peak. During 2015, quarterly GDP averaged 1.8 per cent. U.S. beef production was lower in 2015 compared to 2014, but the market did not rally as the consumer pulled the reins.

The COVID-19 recession occurred in 2020, and the feeder cattle market bottomed around $120. The market peaked in early September 2025 around $364. During this five-year period, the market rallied $240. U.S. quarterly beef production in 2026 will be lower than in 2025, but the market will not make fresh highs given our GDP projections for the first half of 2026.

From September 2014 to September 2015, the market dropped about 25 per cent. Using this example, we could see the feeder cattle futures trade in the range of $260 to $280 during September 2026.

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Live bids in southern Alberta were quoted from $297 to $300/cwt.

Break-even pen closeouts for major feedlot operators are in the range of $275-$286/cwt. Margins have been in positive territory since the spring, and this has been a major factor supporting the feeder market.

Yearling steers off grass averaging 1,000 pounds have been trading for $405-410/cwt. in southern Alberta, while 500-lb. steers have been selling in the range of $660-$670/cwt. across the Prairies.

The U.S. cattle herd remains in a contraction phase. Lower feeder cattle supplies will result in a year-over-year decline in feedlot placements, which will cause lower beef production during 2026.

It appears Canadian barley and U.S. corn crops will come in larger than earlier anticipated. This has also contributed to stronger feeder cattle prices. Wholesale beef prices are down from the June highs, but beef demand shows no sign of easing.

U.S. cattle on feed inventories as of July 1 totalled 11.124 million head, down two per cent or 180,000 head from July 1, 2024. While inventories are below year-ago levels, it’s important to realize that U.S. cattle on feed 180 days or more as of July 1 were actually up 34 per cent from 12 months earlier. U.S. dressed weights are running 20 lb. above last year and 40 lb. above 2023. There is no shortage of fed cattle in the short term.

The U.S. weekly slaughter continues to trail last year. This will keep U.S. market-ready fed cattle supplies above year-ago levels throughout the summer and early fall.

In Western Canada, Alberta and Saskatchewan on-feed inventories on July 1 were 862,080 head, down one per cent or 9,026 head from July 1, 2024. Feedlots in the two Prairie provinces are more current than their U.S. counterparts. Cattle on feed 180 days or more were marginally lower than last year, while dressed weights were running similar to year-ago levels.

In Canada, the June slaughter was above June 2024, while in the U.S., the June slaughter was down from 12 months earlier.

Wholesale choice beef was trading at US$361/cwt. in early August, down from the June peak of US$392/cwt. Packing margins remain in positive territory despite the softer wholesale market. Larger carcass weights have partially offset the lower slaughter pace.

In Canada, restaurant traffic during the first week of August was running 30 to 35 per cent above year-ago levels. In the U.S., restaurants were taking in 10 to 15 per cent more customers than last year. U.S. consumer spending at restaurants has been running six to seven per cent above last year.

Grocery store sales have been running 1.5 per cent above year-ago levels. Data from Statistics Canada shows that Canadian spending behaviour has mirrored that of consumers south of the border.

The U.S. cattle herd remains in a contraction phase. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s semi-annual cattle inventory report estimated the 2025 calf crop at 33.1 million head, down 429,000 head from the 2024 calf output. Heifers for beef cow replacement on July 1 were down 100,000 head from 12 months earlier; the number of beef cows with calves on July 1 was down 350,000 head from the year-ago level.

U.S. feeder cattle outside finishing feedlots as of July 1 came in at 34 million head. This compares to the July 1, 2023 number of 34.7 million head. (There was no survey in 2024 due to budget cuts.)

This is a modern-day historical low. The U.S. border remains closed to Mexican feeder cattle due to New World screwworm, and there is no signal that this will change anytime soon.

In Western Canada, we’re expecting Statistics Canada data to show a three to four per cent year-over-year decline in feeder cattle supplies outside finishing feedlots. The Canadian semi-annual report comes out in late August, and all eyes will be on this data.

In Western Canada, cow-calf pairs have been trading in the range of $6,500-$7,000 throughout June and July. This price reflects recent cull cow values, which have surged to the range of $3,200-$3,400. Currently, a 500-lb. steer is bringing back around $3,300.

Past history tells us that cow-calf producers make the decision to hold back heifers for herd expansion in the fall. This may tighten the feeder cattle supply beyond normal fundamentals. If there is significant heifer retention, this may cause the feeder market to overextend to the upside.

Feedlot operators usually have to experience one full round of negative margins before there is a serious downward adjustment to the feeder market. Therefore, cow-calf producers can expect the calf market to remain strong throughout the fall and winter.

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After the market closed, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that the nation’s cattle herd was 94.2 million head as of July 1, a record low for that date.

In a separate report, USDA said that as of July 1, there were two per cent fewer cattle in U.S. feedlots compared to a year earlier. Analysts had expected USDA to show 0.8 per cent fewer cattle, according to a Reuters News poll.

Still, much of the market’s attention early in the trading session was focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s social media posts, where he said the United States would sell “so much” beef to Australia after Canberra said it would relax import restrictions.

Almost immediately, economists, market analysts, and commodity traders interviewed by Reuters questioned Trump’s assertion.

U.S. beef prices set records this year after ranchers slashed their herds due to drought that burned up pasturelands used for grazing.

Now, a ban on cattle imports from Mexico because of New World screwworm, a devastating livestock pest, and steep tariffs on Brazilian beef that are set to take effect on August 1 could further tighten U.S. meat supplies and require additional imports of Australian beef.

“Are we going to be selling a bunch of beef to Australia right now? Absolutely not,” said Dan Norcini, an independent livestock trader. “The cattle numbers just aren’t there.”

CME August live cattle futures LCQ25 settled up 0.675 cent at 226.475 cents per pound, while most-active October live cattle futures LCV25 ended up 1 cent at 223.150 cents per pound.

CME August feeder cattle futures FCQ25 ended 2.475 cents higher at 331.375 cents per pound. CME September FCU25, October FCV25 and November FCX25 feeder cattle futures set fresh contract highs during the session.

Meanwhile, lean hog futures were mostly lower, as traders are growing concerned that top-buyer Mexico will roll out retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork next month, market analysts said.

CME August lean hog futures LHQ25 ended up 0.500 cent at 108.700 cents per pound, while most-active October LHV25 ended 0.500 cent lower at 90.600 cents per pound.

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The June live cattle contract added 1.600 cents at 196.800 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures advanced 3.400 cents at 278.700 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon, as choice boxes dipped seven cents at $334.22 per hundredweight and select boxes were down $1.00 at $313.96.

Thursday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 114,000 head, down 9,000 from the previous Thursday.

The June contract for lean hog prices nudged up 0.150 of a cent on Friday at 93.325 cents per pound.

The department reported Thursday’s federally inspected hog slaughter of 488,000 head, up 34,000 from a week ago.

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The June live cattle contract retreated 3.175 cents at 195.200 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures dropped 2.900 cents at 275.300 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday afternoon, as choice boxes lost $3.57 at $334.29 per hundredweight and select boxes fell $5.65 at $314.96.

The USDA also said beef export sales for the week ended April 3 of 11,855 tonnes, the highest in three weeks.

Wednesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 123,000 head, down 2,000 from the previous Wednesday.

The June contract for lean hog prices added 1.475 cents on Thursday at 93.175 cents per pound.

The USDA said export sales of pork amounted to 23,854 tonnes, down by more than half from the previous week.

The department reported Wednesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter reached 487,000 head, up by 25,000 from a week ago.

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Trump said the suspension of the levies comes as more than 75 countries were set to negotiate trade with the U.S. or had not taken retaliatory action. However, Trump increased duties on China to 125 per cent from 104 per cent. Meanwhile, China will further raise their tariffs on the U.S. to 84 per cent.

The June live cattle contract advanced 4.750 cents at 198.375 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures climbed 6.475 cents at 278.200 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon, as choice boxes shed 24 cents at $337.86 per hundredweight and select boxes lost $1.45 at $320.61.

Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 122,000 head, for a slip of 1,000 from the previous Tuesday.

Lean hog prices were higher on Wednesday as the June contract stepped up 1.925 cents at 91.700 cents per pound.

The USDA reported Tuesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter amounted to 488,000 head for an increase of 23,000 from a week ago.

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Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued its export sales report for the week ended March 27, with beef sales improving to 9,261 tonnes. Also, the U.S. Census Bureau reported February beef exports amounted to 227.4 million pounds, down 6.9 per cent from a year ago.

The June live cattle contract lost 2.700 cents at 204.700 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures fell 4.800 cents at 283.125 cents per pound.

Wednesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was 124,000 head, 15,000 fewer than the previous Wednesday.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday afternoon, with choice boxes losing $1.53 at $338.37 per hundredweight, while select boxes gave up 99 cents at $317.84.

Lean hog prices were down as well on Thursday. The June contract pulled back 0.975 of a cent at 95.550 cents per pound. The USDA reported Wednesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter was 485,000 head, down 12,000 from the previous Wednesday.

The USDA reported pork export sales came to 52,953 tonnes, a marketing year high. Census data said 565.2 million pounds of pork were exported in February, 4.8 per cent less than the same time last year.

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After hitting fresh contract highs on Monday, the feeder market was thought to be due for a correction from a chart standpoint. However, forecasts calling for another blast of winter weather from Kansas and Iowa through to Wisconsin provided support — with heavy snows expected.

April feeder cattle futures were up by 0.350 cents per pound at 284.550 cents per pound, while the May contract was down by 0.050 cents per pound at 285.250 cents.

The April live cattle contract was up by 0.350 cents per pound at 205.375 cents at the close, while the May contract lost 0.075 cents at 201.000 cents.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wholesale boxed beef prices were stronger on Tuesday, with choice boxes up $2.16 at $323.32 per hundredweight and select boxes up $1.33 at $309.23.

Lean hog prices were weaker, with the April contract down 0.475 cents per pound at 87.600 cents.

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In central Alberta, larger frame Simmental cross steers carrying lighter butter on light grain and silage diet with full processing data averaging 900 pounds traded for $375. In the same region, medium to larger frame, black mixed heifers weighing 865 pounds with some fleshier types included, supposedly traded for $340.

North of Saskatoon, mixed steers carrying medium flesh levels weighing 875 pounds coming off backgrounding grain diet with full processing records supposedly traded for $377 fob farm. At the St Rose Auction in Manitoba, the market report had Charolais steers weighing 846 pounds selling for $385.

East of Edmonton, a small package of Angus blended heifers carrying medium flesh averaging 800 pounds sold for $355. South of Edmonton, black, wide frame Limousin based heifers evaluated at 800 pounds with lower flesh levels were last bid at $367.

Southeast of Calgary, Charolais cross steers weighing 680 pounds apparently traded for $455. At the Ponoka sale on March 12, red mixed steers with a mean weight just under 600 pounds notched the board at $506. North of Calgary, red mixed heifers averaging 630 pounds supposedly settled at $431.

At the Lloydminster sale, a smaller package of black steers weighing 516 pounds silenced the crowd at $571. In southern Manitoba, a smaller package of black mixed steers weighing 507 pounds reportedly moved through the ring at $505. Northwest of Winnipeg, red mixed steers weighing 460 pounds apparently dropped the gavel at $582.

Alberta packers were buying fed cattle on a dressed basis in the range of $450-$455/cwt delivered, up $5-$20/cwt from the week ending March 8. Feeding margins continue to hover in positive territory which is supportive for the feeder complex. In the short-term, feedlot operators have a bullish outlook for fed cattle. This is barring no U.S. tariffs of course.

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