Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, is facing rising production costs due to the conflict, including higher fertilizer and fuel prices.

“I confess that in 30 years I’ve never seen so many loose ends to tie up,” Agroconsult Chief Executive Andre Pessoa said during the firm’s forecast release event.

Brazil has expanded its soybean area year after year, with planting typically starting in mid-September.

If the war drags on amid difficult credit conditions, producers may reduce input investments and cut planting area, Pessoa said.

Earlier on Wednesday, Agroconsult estimated a record soybean crop for the 2025/26 season at 184.7 million metric tons.

— Reporting by Roberto Samora

The post Brazil soybean planting outlook hinges on Middle East war, says Agroconsult appeared first on Grainews.

“Right now in South America, I have a corn crop being equal to last year. In my gut, I think it’s going to be below last year when the safrinha crop is finally harvested,” he said.

Issues with safrinha corn

Although that second Brazil corn crop is more than 91 per cent planted, Cordonnier pointed out there are more than 3.21 million acres still needing to be seeded and stressed the main planting window has closed with dry weather ahead.

“Planting (corn) at this point is very risky. They’ll run out of moisture before the crop has a chance to mature,” he said. “They’re already worried about the dry weather in the state of Paraná.”

Cordonnier said Brazil’s first corn crop is more than halfway harvested, but about 20 points behind this time last year. He said that isn’t too much of a concern.

He recently cut his call on Brazilian corn production this year to 133 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 135 million. That compares with the United States Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 132 million tonnes and 138.3 million tonnes by Brazil’s Conab.

Argentina corn

As for corn crop in Argentina, Cordonnier said about nine per cent has been combined and the average yield is about 131 bushels per acre.

“They’re harvesting the best part right now,” he said, noting that yields will likely decline as combining progresses.

Dry conditions in parts of Argentina created a wide gap in yields, from as little as 40 bu./ac. to as much as 200. Cordonnier said more recent rainfall has stabilized Argentina’s corn.

Soybeans

As for soybeans, Cordonnier said Brazil remains on pace to produce its biggest crop on record. However, it likely won’t be as large as initially expected.

The Brazil soybean harvest was about 61 per cent finished, nine points behind last year.

“It’s on the slow side. That’s because heavy rains continue to fall across northern Brazil,” Cordonnier said.

In southern Brazil, such as Rio Grande do Sul, soybeans were planted late due to drought and that state’s harvest is barely underway, Cordonnier said.

Aside from a very small amount of fields, the soybean harvest had yet to start in Argentina, he added, projecting yields of about 56 bu./ac. in the country’s core soybean-growing area.

The post Pay more attention to South American corn appeared first on Grainews.

Corn

• Projected 2025-26 ending stocks for U.S. corn were unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, down nine million from the average trade estimate, but well above the 1.551 billion reported for 2024-25.
• Corn production and exports were also unchanged from February at 17.021 billion and 3.3 billion bushels, respectively.
• Global corn carryout was projected at 292.75 million tonnes, up 4.77 million from February, due to increased production and an upward revision to the 2024-25 carryout, which stands at 295.82 million.

Soybeans

• The 2025-26 soybean ending stocks estimate stayed put at 350 million bushels from last month, up six million from the average trade estimate and up 25 million from the 2024-25 figure.
• Production and exports remained the same at 4.262 billion and 1.575 billion bushels, respectively.
• Projected U.S. soyoil carryout was up 30 million pounds at 1.782 billion, while soymeal carryout was unchanged at 450 million short tons.
• The global soybean carryout estimate was trimmed by 200,000 tonnes at 125.31 million, which is 1.47 million above the upwardly revised 2024-25 carryout. Production was down one million tonnes at 427.18 million. Global soymeal carryout was down 180,000 tonnes at 19.33 million, while global soyoil carryout was up 70,000 tonnes at 6.20 million.

Wheat

• Projected U.S. wheat carryout for 2025-26 was unchanged from the previous month at 931 million bushels, up five million from the average trade estimate. Last year’s ending stocks totalled 855 million.
• Production and exports also remained the same at 1.985 billion and 900 million bushels, respectively.
• The global wheat carryout estimate was cut by 550,000 tonnes at 276.96 million despite increased production.

South America

• The USDA lifted its projected 2025-26 Brazilian corn production by one million tonnes at 132 million with ending stocks up 2.28 million tonnes at 5.96 million. In Argentina, production was down one million tonnes at 52 million with ending stocks down 800,000 tonnes at 5.09 million. Brazilian and Argentine corn production in 2024-25 were 136 million and 50 million tonnes, respectively.
• The projected Brazilian soybean crop was unchanged at 180 million tonnes with carryout also steady at 37.91 million. In Argentina, soybean production was cut by 500,000 tonnes at 48 million with ending stocks unchanged at 22.92 million. In 2024-25, Brazil and Argentina produced 171.5 million and 51.11 million tonnes of soybeans, respectively.

Grain, soy futures hit highs on war worries

Prices for fertilizer and fuel spiked as the war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, shut down fertilizer plants in the Middle East and upset shipping routes. The disruptions have left some farmers in the Northern Hemisphere ​scrambling for supplies just as they prepare to put seeds in the ground.

U.S. grain and soy futures touched multi-month highs on Monday, despite expectations for ample supplies, as traders worried the war would drag on and oil prices rallied. Traders also assessed the potential for U.S. farmers to cut back on plantings of corn because it requires high rates of nitrogen fertilizer.

USDA did not adjust any of its estimates in a monthly supply and demand report based on the Middle East conflict, said Mark Jekanowski, chairman of USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.

“It’s way too early,” he said.

-With files from Tom Polansek/Reuters

The post USDA makes few changes in domestic figures appeared first on Grainews.

Last year, lower U.S. soy sales to China allowed Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, to ship 85.4 million metric tons to China, an 18 per cent increase from 2024, according to Brazilian government data.

Though Hedgepoint has not released an exact forecast for Brazilian shipments to China, its bet is that Brazil’s soy sales to China may increase even after President Donald Trump said the world’s biggest importer would buy more beans from U.S. farmers this year.

China is expected to raise imports by 4 million metric tons to 112 million tons in 2026, according to Hedgepoint, creating demand that either Brazil or the U.S. could supply.

“Argentina will export less this year because its crop is smaller,” said Luiz Fernando Roque, a Hedgepoint Global analyst. “That already puts another 4 or 5 million tons in the hands of the Americans or Brazil.”

Regarding Argentina specifically, aside from a smaller projected soy crop, the country tends to focus on domestic processing to make soymeal and oil, Roque said.

In 2025, the U.S. share of China’s soybean imports fell to 15 per cent, from 21 per cent the year before, while Brazil’s rose to 73.6 per cent, up from 71 per cent in 2024, according to Hedgepoint data.

Argentina’s share jumped to seven per cent, from four per cent, according to Chinese government data.

The post Brazil to raise soy sales to China after record shipments in 2025, consultancy says appeared first on Grainews.

Why it matters: South American soybean production is a major influence on canola futures and the Chicago soy complex.

For the most part, there was little difference between the USDA’s numbers in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates released on Jan 12 and the attaché reports out a few days earlier.

Argentina:

• The Buenos Aires desk projected a soybean harvest of 47.50 million tonnes, down from 50.50 million in 2024/25. The USDA is at 48.50 million tonnes, compared to 51.11 million the previous year.

• The attaché said delays to planting due to heavy rains and farmers switching to corn were the reasons for the decline.

• The attaché said soyoil production is to be 8.60 million tonnes and the USDA estimated 8.18 million.

• Soyoil exports are to be 6.45 million tonnes according to the attaché with the USDA at 6.15 million.

Brazil:

• The USDA attaché in Brasilia estimated soybean harvest at 177 million tonnes and the department upped its call by three million to now 178 million tonnes. Either number would be record production for Brazil, which provides well in excess of 40 per cent of the world’s soybeans.

• The impetus for such enormous production is increased cultivated acres due to Brazil’s new B15 biofuel mandate. The attaché placed harvested area at 49.10 million hectares, inline with the USDA’s official call and up from 48.80 million estimated in December.

• Also, Brazil exports a majority of its soybeans. The Brasilia desk projected those exports to hit 113 million tonnes while the official department call rose 1.5 million tonnes to 114 million.

The post USDA, attachés differ on South American soybeans appeared first on Grainews.

Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, shipping meat worth almost $17 billion (C$23.5 billion) in 2025, according to government trade data released on Tuesday. Beef production numbers are not due until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates. Farmers have been sending more animals to slaughter, cashing in on high export demand from countries including China and the U.S., where low supply has pushed beef prices to record levels.

Production out-performs forecasts

Elevated slaughter typically leads to a period of low output as producers hold back animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil may limit or even prevent a downturn, people in the industry say. They noted that farms have been inseminating cattle quicker, fattening them faster and slaughtering them younger.

“Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five years,” said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager responsible for tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “Now it is 36 months and going rapidly to 24,” he said.

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, said Brazilian beef production far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4 per cent for the year, where he had predicted a 2.7 per cent drop. The increase of around 800,000 tons was about equal to total annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 beef shipper.

Rabobank, which had expected Brazil’s beef production to decline in 2025, now sees 0.5 per cent growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If the official numbers confirm market estimates, 2025 will be the first year that Brazil’s output will have surpassed U.S. production, which fell 3.9 per cent to 11.8 million tons in 2025, according to USDA estimates, following years of drought.

Feedlots, rising carcass weight drive output

U.S. beef production will fall a further 0.9 per cent to 11.7 million tons in 2026, the USDA said. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank project a decline in output, but Nogueira said rising productivity could actually boost Brazil’s production by around 300,000 tons.

Almost 28 per cent of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will be fattened in feedlots by 2027, up from 22 per cent in 2025, according to consultants Scot Consultoria.

“Feedlots do in 100 days for cattle what pasture does in between 18 and 24 months,” said Barbosa, adding that CMA’s Barretos feedlot would process 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 last year.

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol industry is generating a byproduct known as dried distillers grains that has higher protein than corn and helps cattle fatten faster, analysts said.

Cows are becoming pregnant more often as farmers adopt more efficient insemination techniques, allowing producers to slaughter more animals without reducing herd size.

Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s pregnancy rate – the proportion of females that become pregnant during a breeding season – to rise to 54 per cent in 2027 from an expected 50 per cent in 2026.

Better genetics are also improving cattle growth and boosting meat quality, analysts say. And Brazil still has not matched the 90 per cent proportion of cattle passing through feedlots as in the U.S., or Australia’s 40 per cent.

If Brazil’s pregnancy rate rose to 66 per cent, equivalent to neighbouring Argentina, the number of calves birthed each year would rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, according to consultants Datagro. The pregnancy rate in Canada is 96 per cent, they said.

Government data show Brazil has 238 million cattle, well over double the 94 million in the U.S. Higher productivity would allow output to expand without increasing cattle numbers or the area of pasture land. That could ease one economic driver of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to grow just four per cent between 2024 and 2034 while beef production increases 24 per cent, according to Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. U.S. beef production will rise 3.5 per cent and cattle numbers will grow five per cent over that period, by USDA estimates.

Brazil key as top producers scale back

Global beef prices will hinge on whether Brazil can avoid a production downturn this year.

The USDA expects output in the world’s six biggest producers to fall in 2026 by a combined 2.4 per cent – the biggest annual drop in decades – after rising 0.4 per cent in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list excludes India, which the USDA names as one of the six top beef producers even though that country produces buffalo meat rather than beef.

The USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3 per cent to 11.7 million tons carcass weight equivalent this year. If Nogueira’s estimates are confirmed and output rises instead to around 12.6 million tons, the decline in the top six producers would be just 0.2 per cent.

“There has never been so much international demand for Brazilian beef,” said Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, adding that local beef packers have also ramped up capacity.

“We are witnessing firsthand a significant shift in how the beef cattle supply system works in Brazil, in terms of quality, scale, efficiency, and productivity,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago

The post Brazil surpassing U.S. as top beef producer, easing global supply squeeze appeared first on Grainews.

The figure represents an 11.7 per cent climb from 2024, and comes after a record soy harvest in Brazil last year, as well as extensive purchases from China, which avoided buying the oilseed from the United States for much of the year due to a dispute over tariffs.

Soymeal and corn

• Soymeal exports also reached a record level, Cargonave data showed, surpassing 23.07 million tons in 2025.
• The figure compares to the previous high of 22.84 million tons in 2024.
• Brazil’s corn exports reached 41.7 million tons last year, almost 4 million tons above the 2024 level.
• Brazil is one of the world’s largest exporters of soymeal and corn.

— Reporting by Roberto Samora in Sao Paulo

The post Brazil’s soy exports hit record in 2025, data from shipping agency Cargonave shows appeared first on Grainews.

The soy moratorium agreement bars signatories from buying soybeans grown on Amazonian farms deforested after July 2008.

In an announcement on Monday, Mato Grosso Governor Mauro Mendes said lobby group Abiove informed the state government officially that the association and major traders were leaving the pact. A tax law change on January 1 is a key factor.

Abiove, which includes ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Cofco and Louis Dreyfus among members, confirmed in a subsequent statement it had “initiated talks” to exit the pact, which is backed by the federal government and conservation groups.

The group and about two-thirds of the companies that formerly participated no longer appeared on Monday on the moratorium agreement’s website.

Conservation groups condemn the move

WWF said in a statement that the decision was an environmental setback.

Departure of the firms from the pact “weakens one of the most effective instruments for combating deforestation in the country,” and it exposes farmers to increasing climate risks, WWF said.

Greenpeace also criticized the move, saying it would violate promises made to investors and international markets.

The moratorium is credited with slowing the destruction of the world’s largest rainforest. However, as Reuters reported last week, some of the world’s largest soybean traders were preparing to withdraw from the deal to preserve tax benefits in Mato Grosso, where a new law eliminating the benefits for moratorium participants took force at the start of 2026.

Aprosoja-MT, an association representing farmers in Mato Grosso that had pressured companies for years to end the pact, welcomed the Abiove announcement.

The farmer group called the decision a victory, claiming the moratorium agreement is illegal and unfair to those who comply with the Brazilian Forest Code.

Abiove said companies will be individually responsible for fulfilling their own conservation commitments. “The legacy of monitoring and the expertise acquired over nearly 20 years will not be lost,” it said.

The post Major Brazilian grain traders quit Amazon conservation pact appeared first on Grainews.

The firms exiting the so-called Amazon Soy Moratorium, which has saved millions of acres of tropical forest over nearly two decades, are looking to shield themselves from a new state law in Mato Grosso, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

Starting in January, the state will strip tax incentives from companies taking part in the conservation program. Mato Grosso grew some 51 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025, more than Argentina.

A preliminary report from state auditors in April found that grains traders had benefited from tax incentives worth about 4.7 billion reais (C$1.15 billion) between 2019 and 2024.

ADM and Bunge were the top beneficiaries of tax incentives, receiving about 1.5 billion reais (C$368.6 million) each, said Sergio Ricardo, head of the Mato Grosso state audit court.

U.S.-based ADM, Bunge and Cargill, as well as China’s Cofco and Brazil’s Amaggi, are signatories of the pact with facilities in Mato Grosso that have benefited from state tax incentives. It was not clear which of the firms would break immediately from the moratorium.

Cargill referred questions to industry group Abiove, which did not respond to requests for comment. ADM, Bunge, Cofco, Amaggi and grain exporter group Anec did not respond to questions.

“Most companies will choose not to lose the tax incentives and will withdraw from the agreement,” said one of the sources, adding that the departures would effectively end a pact signed in 2006 with the federal government and conservation groups.

‘Dangerous precedent’

The moratorium is considered one of the most important forces slowing deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon over the past two decades as it bars signatories from buying soybeans from farmers who plant on land deforested after July 2008.

Researchers estimate that an area of the rainforest the size of Ireland would have been lost to soy farms in Brazil without the moratorium and related conservation efforts, compared to the pace of expansion in neighboring countries such as Bolivia.

The Mato Grosso law, which lawmakers passed in 2023, is the latest example of a global retreat from pacts and policies to curb climate change, even as temperatures break records, driven by rising fossil fuel use and deforestation.

Critics of the soy moratorium say that the pact restricts the market and hurts farmers. Farming groups in Mato Grosso say the protocol reduces the income and economic development of the state.

“Companies could choose to keep their zero-deforestation commitments,” said Cristiane Mazzetti, who oversees the moratorium for Greenpeace. “It’s a dangerous precedent, and it’s not what we need in a moment of climate emergency,” she added.

Brazil’s federal government has argued in court against the new Mato Grosso law stripping tax breaks from traders due to their environmental commitments.

“If the Mato Grosso government really removes those incentives, we have heard that some, or many, companies will in fact abandon the moratorium for economic reasons,” said Andre Lima, a senior Environment Ministry official tasked with combating deforestation. He added that firms had not officially informed the ministry of their plans.

Far-reaching consequences

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has vowed an “ecological transformation” of the Brazilian economy, capped off with the United Nations climate summit hosted in the Amazon last month.

But in domestic politics, his leftist government is often fighting a rearguard battle to protect the world’s largest rainforest from a farm lobby with the upper hand in Congress.

The unraveling of the Amazon Soy Moratorium is likely to embolden those rural powerbrokers and their allies. This year the farm lobby has successfully gutted environmental permitting laws and stripped some protections from Indigenous lands.

The trend has caught the attention of farmer groups in Europe arguing to block a free trade agreement between the European Union and South America’s Mercosur due to the impact of Brazilian agribusiness on vital ecosystems.

Brazil’s Supreme Court has barred some but not all of the farm lobby’s agenda in Congress, based on constitutional protections for the environment and Indigenous peoples.

Environmentalists warn that the end of the soy moratorium could pave the way to dismantle other environmental protections in the world’s largest soybean producer, including part of Brazil’s forestry code restricting farmers from felling trees on 80 per cent of their properties in the Amazon.

Lawsuits

In recent years, soybean farmers pushed state lawmakers in Mato Grosso, Rondonia and Maranhao to strip tax benefits from companies taking part in environmental pacts more restrictive than Brazilian law.

It remains unclear which environmental commitments outside the soy moratorium will trigger those new state laws, which could threaten a range of other companies, including cellulose producers and meatpackers.

Brazilian antitrust agency CADE has separately opened an investigation of the soy moratorium for a potential breach of competition rules. For nearly two decades, trading firms have shared the cost of monitoring soy farms in the Amazon to avoid buying from those planting on newly deforested land.

Starting in January, CADE has ordered traders “to refrain from collecting, storing, sharing, or disseminating commercial information related to the sale, production, or acquisition of soybeans.”

Soy farmers in Mato Grosso have also sued grain traders for roughly $180 million over their role in the pact.

In temporary rulings, Supreme Court Justice Flavio Dino stopped the antitrust investigation, but let the Mato Grosso law take effect. Environmental groups are still trying to block the state law ahead of a final court ruling on the issue.

The post Soy trading firms to abandon Amazon protection pact in Brazil appeared first on Grainews.

Following a trade truce in late October, China has stepped up purchases of U.S. cargoes, with traders saying that more than 7 million metric tons have been purchased since then.

In late November, Reuters reported, citing a shipping schedule, that two cargo vessels would carry the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May.

As these cargoes have not yet arrived, they do not appear on the customs website.

Argentina, Brazil imports jump

U.S. soybean imports fell to zero in November from 2.79 million metric tons a year earlier, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed on Saturday.

Arrivals from Brazil jumped 48.5 per cent year-on-year to 5.85 million tons, accounting for 72 per cent of total imports, while shipments from Argentina rose 633.6 per cent to 1.78 million tons, or 21.9 per cent of the total.

The world’s top soybean buyer imported 8.11 million metric tons in November and 103.79 million tons in the first 11 months, putting full-year arrivals on track for a record amid strong purchases from South America and a trade truce with Washington.

From January to November, China imported 76.7 million tons from Brazil, up seven per cent year-on-year, and 6.24 million tons from Argentina, up 62.5 per cent year-on-year.

U.S. soybean imports fell 5.9 per cent year-on-year to 16.82 million tons from January to November.

Sinograin held three auctions this month to make room for U.S. soy arrivals.

The post China imports no US soybeans for third month; Argentine arrivals up 634 per cent appeared first on Grainews.