WHY IT MATTERS: Analysts said the April 5 attack on the ship added to risks to global food security and agricultural trade stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

Russian media said the vessel was carrying wheat from the Port of Azov, near the city of Rostov, to Port Kavkaz in the strait separating the Crimean peninsula from mainland Russia, where the grain is usually loaded onto larger vessels for export.

TASS quoted emergency services as saying the vessel, which was gutted by fire and began to sink, was towed to the village of Kuchugury in Russia’s Krasnodar region. A video posted by the news agency showed the vessel engulfed in flames and smoke. The agency said two badly burned bodies were found aboard the ship, bringing the death toll to three. An aide to the vessel’s captain had earlier been reported dead.

Public ship databases list Volgo-Balt 138-class vessels at about 3,165 tons deadweight.

Grain consultancy Sovecon earlier described the incident as the first known sinking of a grain-loaded ship in the Black Sea-Azov basin, a major grain-trading route, since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

“Against the backdrop of Iran’s conflict and the effective paralysis of diplomacy among Washington, Moscow and Kyiv, the risk of further escalation in the region appears to have increased significantly,” Sovecon head Andrey Sizov said.

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Beef prices set records this year after the nation’s cattle supply dropped to a 75-year low, leading to record prices for meatpackers such as JBS to buy cattle to slaughter, despite benefiting from the climbing prices.

WHY IT MATTERS: The strike at JBS’s Greely, Colorado site has weighed, somewhat, on U.S. beef prices.

The union representing about 3,800 plant workers said the new round of talks would resume on April 9 and 10 after last month’s strike to press for wages that reflect inflation and a halt to company charges for replacing protective equipment.

“Workers remain united and will continue to fight until JBS fully ends its unfair labor practices,” said Kim Cordova, president of the local union representing the Greeley workers.

It is calling for a contract offer that protects workers, shows them the respect they deserve, and pays them a livable wage, he added in a statement.

There had been no new deal or change to the original offer, a JBS spokesperson told Reuters.

“We are pleased to welcome our team members back and are preparing to resume and ramp up operations at the Greeley plant next week,” the spokesperson added in an email.

The strike dealt a blow to U.S. processing capacity, after Tyson Foods closed a beef plant in Nebraska this year and reduced operations at a Texas facility.

The dispute with the workers, represented by the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7 union, comes as meatpackers typically seek to boost efficiency by running plants at peak capacity to offset hefty running costs.

— Reporting by Gnaneshwar Rajan and Chandni Shah in Bengaluru

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Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, told reporters he also discussed the impact of geopolitical tensions on the oil and gas market and how China sees Canada as a stable energy supplier.

“We are becoming a partner of choice,” he said.

WHY IT MATTERS: While China has lowered levies on Canadian agricultural products like canola, it continues to charge a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian pork.

The two officials also agreed to hold high-level economic and financial dialogue in the second half of this year, according to an official Chinese summary of the meeting.

Champagne said the discussions centred on the financial services sector but addressed trade in energy and pork, as well as fair labour practices.

“Canada puts a lot of importance on supply chain integrity and that our bilateral trade needs to be conducted in accordance with international standards,” Champagne said.

Canada, like China, has been targeted with tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump since his administration took office in January 2025. Strained U.S. trade relations have posed a major challenge for the Canadian economy.

Among the Trump administration’s actions, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office in March said it initiated a second set of unfair trade practice probes of 60 economies, including Canada and China.

Tariffs on Canadian pork discussed

China is Canada’s second-largest trade partner with about C$120 billion of bilateral trade. Canada aims to increase its overall exports to China by 50 per cent by 2030.

Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in January as Ottawa works to diversify trade away from its largest partner, the United States.

While China suspended some agricultural levies on Canada following Carney’s visit, Beijing still has a 25 per cent tariff on imports of Canadian pork, which Champagne said he raised during the meetings.

“Part of my message to the Chinese side was, really, we need to get to a point where we remove these trade irritants,” he said. “I’m leaving Beijing tomorrow with the feeling that we have laid the foundation.”

Champagne added that the automotive sector was not discussed, following reports that Stellantis was reviewing options for building electric vehicles in Canada with Chinese partner Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology.

He said Stellantis would need to live up to its obligations on investments and workers in Canada.

— Additional reporting from Reuters’ Beijing newsroom

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Planting of wheat, canola and other crops is set to gather pace this month across much of Australia and farmers need ample supplies of crop nutrients to support early growth.

The price of urea in Australia was quoted around A$1,350 (C$1,298) per ton this week, up about 60 per cent since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, analysts said. Australian diesel prices are up 88 per cent over the same period.

“Farmers are trying to reduce fertilizer application and switching planting from nitrogen hungry crops like wheat and canola into feed barley,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Some are also reducing planted area, but this so far is minimal,” he said.

Australia’s wheat planting could drop by 10 per cent to 12 per cent given the current conditions, from 12.4 million hectares a year ago, an agricultural broker and an analyst said. Cultivation of canola is also likely to decline despite higher returns, they said. Both declined to be named.

Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and No. 2 supplier of canola, selling to importers across Asia, the Middle East and Europe. It also sells crops such as barley, chickpeas and pulses.

Straight of Hormuz is fertilizer choke point

Farmers worldwide are struggling to secure fertilizer supplies as planting season in key countries gets underway, with the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 30 per cent of globally traded fertilizers, severely disrupted by the Iran war.

Bank of America warned that the conflict threatens 65 per cent to 70 per cent of global supplies of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, with prices already up 30 per cent to 40 per cent.

U.S. farmers plan to plant less corn and more soybeans in 2026 than last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. China has curbed fertilizer exports, while India is tapping alternative sources to boost supplies for summer-sown crops.

Corn, wheat and canola usually require higher application of urea than barley and pulses.

“Australia typically relies on China for urea, but export curbs have limited shipments,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

“Buyers turned to Indonesia, only to face further constraints there and by the time they sought supplies from the Middle East, the war had already started and the Strait of Hormuz had closed.”

Crops need fertilizer at the start of planting as well as in development and pre-maturity stages. Crops planted in April and May are harvested in November and December.

“It is a big issue as the cost of farming has risen sharply in the last one month,” said Tobin Gorey, founder of commodities consultancy Cornucopia in Sydney.

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Shares of Hellmann’s mayonnaise owner Unilever and Frank’s RedHot sauce maker McCormick fell on Tuesday following the announcement over concerns about the transaction’s structure, long path to closing and antitrust risks.

The top U.S. spice maker, home to more than 30 household brands, is playing the long game, some analysts said.

While many food companies are scrambling to reformulate products and resize portions as the surging popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs reshapes eating habits, McCormick argues that flavor will remain essential even as calorie counts fall.

“We will continue to flavor calories while others compete for them,” McCormick CEO Brendan Foley, a packaged-food industry veteran, said on a call with investors on Tuesday.

“As consumers increasingly focus on cooking at home, adding more protein and produce, and pursuing healthier lifestyles, flavor plays a critical role in elevating those choices,” Foley said.

The GLP-1 bet

The surge in weight-loss drug use has consumers craving more flavor ‌in their food, leading to condiment and spice makers benefiting and attracting more interest in the M&A marketplace, dealmakers have said.

“Consumers shifting away from fatty, greasy, or overly sweet foods … creates a massive opportunity for flavor enhancers (spices and hot sauces) that provide sensory satisfaction without adding calories,” said Timothy Malefyt, professor of marketing at the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University.

The deal will also help the U.S. company tap into Knorr stock cubes maker Unilever’s global scale and expertise, executives said on Tuesday’s investor call. Unilever executives highlighted its popular flavors such as Asian and Chinese.

“McCormick with this could be well-positioned to create the right nutritional functional benefit in food that is lacking in America right now,” said Mike Anstey, founder of Pilot Lite, a global CPG (consumer packaged goods) commercialization partner.

It would also open up key emerging markets such as Brazil, China and countries across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

“(The deal) represents a step-change in scale, broadening MKC’s exposure to faster-growing emerging markets and expanding opportunities for its foodservice platform,” Jefferies analyst Scott Marks said in a note.

Unkind market conditions

McCormick is seeking new markets and flavors against the backdrop of a tough U.S. market, where consumers are eating healthier and also looking for cheaper pantry alternatives and smaller pack sizes to stretch budgets hit by inflation.

“We’re certainly aware of the near-term pressures facing not just the food industry but broadly … the conflict in the Middle East and the broader CPG space. However, we continue to believe in just the long-term fundamentals that really underpin the confidence in this combination,” McCormick’s Foley said.

The company’s total volume growth has slowed over the last year, and was down 0.7 per cent in the most recently reported quarter, falling across both its consumer brands and flavor solutions segments.

“Despite the combination’s strategic merits, we think this may be a ploy to incite growth in an industry where gains have stagnated,” said Erin Lash, analyst at Morningstar Research.

Rival Kraft Heinz, which media reports said had explored a bid for Unilever’s food business, underscored the tougher U.S. market when it paused plans for a split.

“Investors should look at this transaction more optimistically than broken deals like Kraft Heinz because it creates value through greater depth in a single category, flavorings, rather than diversification,” said TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow in a note.

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The moratorium, agreed at the dawn of the internet, lapsed for the first time in 28 years after World Trade Organization countries failed to agree on a routine extension.

Four days of talks among trade ministers in Cameroon’s capital Yaounde broke up in the early hours of Monday with Brazil and Turkey blocking a bid to extend the e-commerce moratorium, which including on digital downloads and streaming.

Countries also failed to agree on a path to reform.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement that he has secured agreements from dozens of countries, including nearly all major trading partners, not to impose tariffs on U.S. digital transmissions. He vowed that if the WTO fails to restore the moratorium, “the United States will work outside of the WTO with all interested partners to get it done.”

Greer, who is the architect of U.S. President Donald Trump’s multi-front tariff assault on global trading partners, said he was disappointed that the meeting ended in an impasse. He said some countries demonstrated a “lack of seriousness” in WTO reform by not sending their trade ministers to Cameroon.

“I have always been skeptical of the value of the WTO, and this week’s conference confirmed that this organization will play only a limited role in future global trade policy efforts,” Greer said.

Increasingly sidelined by economic nationalism

The WTO has been increasingly sidelined by economic nationalism in the past decade, and its 14th ministerial conference in Cameroon will further that trend, analysts said.

The talks tested the WTO’s relevance after a year of huge trade turmoil and more recent disruptions in the Middle East.

Still, a subset of 66 members did agree to sidestep previous hurdles to ‌usher in the world’s first baseline deal on digital trade rules among participants.

The parties of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership — 12 countries including Australia, Britain, Canada, Japanand Mexico but not the U.S. — met with the EU on the sidelines of the WTO talks.

As diplomats pursue a mix of agreements between two or larger subsets of countries, they risk creating a complex “spaghetti bowl” of agreements, said Dmitry Grozoubinski, executive director of the Geneva Trade Platform.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the trade body hoped the moratorium could still be restored, adding that Brazil and the U.S. were trying to reach agreement on it.

— Additional reporting by Emma Farge in Geneva and Lisandra Paraguassu in Brasilia and David Lawder in Washington, D.C.

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The four-day ministerial talks in Cameroon’s capital Yaounde ended in the early hours with Brazil blocking a bid by the U.S. and others to prolong a moratorium on duties for electronic transmissions like digital downloads and streaming.

“It marks another crack in the foundations of the WTO system,” said Andrew Wilson, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce, urging delegates to renew the moratorium before states hit digital services with new charges.

‘Major setback for global trade’

Expectations for progress had been low before the talks but there were hopes the moratorium – which has been regularly renewed since 1998 – would at least be extended.

That ultimately proved impossible. Trade ministers could not agree to extend it for more than two years, which was not enough for the United States, diplomats said.

U.S. officials and business groups voiced frustration, and Britain’s Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle called the failure to reach consensus a “major setback for global trade.”

The talks were deemed a test of the WTO’s relevance after a year of huge trade turmoil and more recent disruptions due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.Still, a subset of 66 members did agree to sidestep previous hurdles to ‌usher in the world’s first baseline deal on digital trade rules among participants.

Changes looked for

Prior to meetings, three items were expected to dominate talks wrote Jane Kelsey, an emeritus professor of law with the University of Auckland, in an article for the Conversation.

Those were:

• Decision making: reformers proposed a “responsible consensus” model rather than the current multilateral model, which gives all states an equal voice.
• Development and industrialization: this proposed to limit countries’ ability to define their own level of development, Kelsey wrote. “Special and differential treatment” would give them more time to adopt rules applied to more developed countries.
• Leveling the playing field: this was “essentially about China,” wrote Kelsey, which the U.S. says has gained an unfair advantage since joining the WTO. The U.S. wanted rules to restrict state support for industry and to limit application of “most-favoured-nation treatment.”

‘Spaghetti bowl’

Efforts to rebuild the WTO’s predictable trade terms are creating “a spaghetti bowl of free trade agreements, bilateral initiatives, and plurilaterals,” said Dmitry Grozoubinski, executive director of the Geneva Trade Platform think tank.

Agreeing on an e-commerce moratorium was seen as key to securing U.S support for the WTO, which under President Donald Trump has retreated from global multilateral bodies.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the trade body hoped the moratorium could be restored and that Brazil and the U.S. were trying to reach agreement on it.

The WTO said progress was made on a reform roadmap, and discussions on issues like reworking its rules to render subsidy use more transparent and facilitate decision-making are expected to continue in Geneva.

The U.S. and the European Union argue China in particular has taken advantage of current rules to their detriment.

Impasse could boost CPTPP

Diplomats worked throughout Sunday to close the gap between Brazil’s initial two-year proposal on the moratorium and the U.S., which wanted a permanent extension, by drafting a plan for a four-year extension with a one-year sunset buffer.

Brazil then offered a four-year extension with a mid-term review clause, but it lacked sufficient support.

Keith Rockwell, a trade analyst at the Hinrich Foundation and former WTO director, said Brazil’s efforts to leverage e-commerce for concessions on agriculture had failed because the U.S. was no longer so invested in the WTO.

“In the old days because they felt responsibility for the system the Americans would have swallowed hard and taken a hit,” he said. “But now they won’t do that anymore.”

He said the impasse would boost alternative structures like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal encompassing 12 countries including Japan, Britain, Canada, Mexico and Australia – but not the U.S.

“Now what you’re going to see is a lot more energy and momentum into things like the CPTPP,” Rockwell said.

— Additional reporting by Emma Farge in Geneva

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“I want John Deere and Case and all of – they’re great companies, Caterpillar… I want these companies to give it to you in the form of lower tractor and equipment costs,” Trump told hundreds of farmers and ranchers gathered under drizzle at an event on the South Lawn of the White House.

Deere & Co shares dropped two per cent after the statement. Case IH manufacturer CNH Industrial fell one per cent while Caterpillar Inc was down nearly 1.2 per cent in late-session trading.

The three companies could not immediately be reached for comment.

Trump seeks support from struggling farmers

Trump called for lower prices in an aside during a speech that otherwise focused on shoring up support among the Republican president’s loyal constituency of rural voters, who have backed Trump in all three of the last presidential races.

For the fourth straight year, U.S. crop producers are facing tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices – and are struggling financially – despite near-record government payments.

The Trump administration is distributing $12 billion (C$16.7 billion) in aid to U.S. farmers — a move that farm trade groups and agricultural economists have said is helpful in the short-term but will not fully compensate farmers for financial losses that have topped $30 billion in recent years.

On Friday, Trump said he would seek even more such aid for farmers from Congress. More than 50 farm-interest groups, such as the American Farm Bureau Federation, are urging Congress to approve additional aid in a military funding package.

Trump pledges new loan guarantees

The event happened as the administration finalized new biofuel blending mandates for U.S. oil refiners, requiring them to mix more of the fuels made from corn and other agricultural products into the nation’s gasoline and diesel than initially proposed, in an apparent win for farmers.

Trump also said the U.S. Small Business Administration would open up new loan guarantees for farmers and food suppliers.

Farmers are entering the critical spring planting season under a cloud of uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global trade, causing fertilizer and diesel costs to spike.

The long-term U.S. trade relationship with China also remains unclear amid the ongoing trade war launched by Trump’s administration with the country, the world’s top soy importer.

Rural voters constitute a fifth of the U.S. electorate, and they favored Trump by a two-to-one margin over Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

— Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya

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The Environmental Protection Agency set total 2026 biofuel obligations at 26.81 billion RINs and the 2027 obligation at 27.02 billion RINs.

WHY IT MATTERS: While U.S. biofuel mandates set higher demand for oilseeds, the rules could disincentivize American buyers from choosing Canadian canola in the future.

The total mandates include 70 per cent of the blending obligations that were waived under the Small Refinery Exemptions program during the 2023-2025 compliance years, the EPA said.

The EPA in June 2025 had proposed total biofuel blending volumes at 24.02 billion RINs in 2026 and 24.46 billion RINs in 2027.

EPA added on Friday that, starting in 2028, foreign fuels and feedstocks will receive only half of the RINs of American-made products.

The rule ends a period of uncertainty for both the agriculture and refining industry, whose fortunes can be significantly impacted by the country’s biofuels policies.

Farmers and biofuel producers typically want high quotas to spur demand for their products, while refiners view the blending obligations as a costly burden.

On Friday, Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison said he was pleased with what he’s seen of the EPA’s decision, particularly the increased blending mandate.

“We’re very pleased to see those updates, and Canadian canola can make a meaningful contribution there,” Davison said.

“Canola is a modest but important feedstock in U.S. biomass-based diesel production,” said Davis.

The new RVOs should create an “appreciable opportunity” for Canada’s canola crushers who have greatly increased production capacity in recent years.

Davison said he was not sure what ‘foreign feedstocks’ would mean as at one point the agency was considering a proposal to create a ring fence covering all of North America.

— Reporting by Richard Valdmanis and Daphne Psaledakis

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Soybean seedings, meanwhile, are expected to jump as some growers shift acres away from corn and wheat, which require more costly fertilizer, they said.

Farmers are entering the critical spring planting season under a cloud of uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global trade, causing fertilizer and diesel costs to spike. The long-term U.S. trade relationship with China also remains unclear amid the ongoing trade war launched by President Donald Trump’s administration with the top soy importer.

U.S. net farm income

Meanwhile, U.S. net farm income is forecast to turn lower this year despite near-record government payments, marking the fourth straight year of crop producers facing tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices.

The Trump administration is in the process of distributing $12 billion (C$16.6 billion) in aid to U.S. farmers. As the repercussions of the war rattle the broader economy, farm groups have urged Congress to approve additional aid.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release its annual prospective plantings report on Tuesday, its first survey-based crop acreage estimate of the year. Analysts cautioned that the estimates, gleaned from farmer surveys conducted in the first half of March, could not fully account for disruptions and price impacts caused by the war, which began when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes across Iran on February 28.

“This particular planting intentions report, right out of the gates, is going to be viewed somewhat skeptically by the trade just because of the timing of the survey with the start of the war and how things have changed in terms of costs,” said Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates in Chicago.

Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, projected corn plantings to drop to 94.371 million acres, down from 98.788 million acres in 2025, which was the most since 1936. Soybean seedings were seen at 85.549 million acres, up from 81.215 million a year ago.

Wheat plantings expected to fall

Plantings of spring wheat, grown in the northern Plains, are forecast to drop to 9.843 million acres, down from 9.990 million last year and the lowest since 1970. Prices for the high-protein grain have slumped since a record Canadian harvest last year.

Farmers in the U.S. Midwest farm belt normally rotate their fields with corn one year and soybeans the next, but profit projections and input costs can prompt farmers to deviate from their crop rotations in some fields.

“The fertilizer cost and fertilizer availability are the main drivers right now,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale. “But I would point out that we have questions about whether the USDA’s report will show the true story.”

Prices for urea fertilizer are up about 40 per cent since the start of the war while costs for anhydrous ammonia are up nearly 20 per cent, according to a report this week from economists at the University of Illinois.

“Given that nitrogen fertilizers are not used intensively on soybeans, higher nitrogen prices could also lead to a shift towards more soybean acres and fewer corn acres,” they said.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins this month estimated that about 75 per cent of farmers already had their fertilizer needs booked.

Hunt for alternatives

The hunt is on for alternatives that would insulate farmers from price volatility tied to natural gas in fertilizer markets, and be less carbon-intensive.

While natural gas powers the process of synthesizing most widely used ammonia fertilizers, there are efforts to power more ammonia production with renewable energy.

In Minnesota for example, a coalition of agriculture and conservation organizations launched the Minnesota Made Ammonia project on March 5 to build local ammonia production facilities in Minnesota that use renewable energy, according to a statement from the group.

Outside of the heart of the Midwest corn and soybean belt, farmers have more planting options, including hard red spring wheat, durum wheat, canola and cotton, analysts said.

Demand for biofuels swells

In North Dakota, the top spring wheat state and a key supplier of soybeans that are shipped to China via Pacific Northwest ports, rising fertilizer costs and trade uncertainty are likely to prompt some farmers to choose corn or canola over soybeans and wheat, analysts said.

The price of urea fertilizer has jumped at least $200 per ton since the start of the war, according to Jim Peterson, executive director of the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

“On a 50 bushel (per acre) wheat yield, you need another 40 or 50 cents a bushel to just cover that cost,” Peterson said.

Canola, grown in the northern Plains and in Canada, is also a viable option despite high fertilizer costs due to strong demand for vegetable oil for biofuel production. Demand for biofuels has swelled amid rising prices for petroleum-based fuels.

In the Delta, low cotton prices and costly inputs are likely to lead to the lowest cotton plantings in a decade as farmers may choose more profitable soybeans instead.

“If we go through the rest of March and into April with soybeans looking this much stronger than cotton, then, yes, we’ll see more acres move from cotton to soybeans,” said Barry Bean, president of Bean & Bean Cotton Company.

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

— Additional reporting by Ed White in Winnipeg, Renee Hickman in Chicago and Anmol Choubey in Bangalore

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