In a joint statement issued after a meeting on the war, the leaders of the global institutions said the burden would fall most heavily on the world’s most vulnerable populations, particularly in low-income, import-dependent economies.

They said their institutions would continue to monitor developments closely and “coordinate the use of all available tools to support those impacted by the crisis.”

Increases in oil, gas, fertilizer prices

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a two-week ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran, but relief over the truce quickly gave way to alarm that fighting was still raging across the region, with Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian attacks on Gulf oil facilities.

“The Middle East war is upending lives and livelihoods in the region and beyond. It has already triggered one of the largest disruptions to global energy markets in modern history,” the joint statement said.

“Sharp increases in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, together with transport bottlenecks, will inevitably lead to rising food prices and food insecurity.”

The statement said spikes in fuel prices and potential sharp increases in food prices were especially concerning in countries already facing fiscal constraints and high debt burdens, which would limit their ability to protect vulnerable households.

Institutions vow support

The leaders of the three institutions vowed to provide support in accordance with their mandates, and to lay the foundations for a resilient recovery.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters on Monday the IMF was also engaging with the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization on food security.

The World Food Programme said in mid-March that millions of people will face acute hunger if the war continues into June. Georgieva said the IMF did not see a food crisis yet, but that could happen if the delivery of fertilizers was impaired.

— Reporting by Andrea Shalal and Daphne Psaledakis

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Some plants do this by putting a pause on productivity until the weather improves. In our recently published research, we discovered which genes control the “pause-and-play” mechanism of plant growth and are key for the survival of Canada’s crops.

Our goal is to understand the genetic factors that control growth so they can eventually be used to improve the ability of Canadian and global crops to handle weather stresses like drought, heat and cold temperatures.

A changing climate means extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. These findings could help create climate-resilient, genetically engineered crops that can recover faster and more efficiently after climate shocks.

These plants might be more likely to complete their life cycle and produce food during the harvest season, even after experiencing snowstorms, heat waves or flooding.

How plants handle weather stress

To get an idea of how plants tolerate stress, we measured root growth under a series of environmental stresses that Canadian and globally relevant crops commonly face throughout their life cycles. These included cold temperatures, salt stress and drought-like conditions. For our first experiments, we used thale cress (Arabidopsis thaliana).

Roots are particularly useful for this type of research because they grow continuously and respond quickly to environmental change.

By measuring root length over time, we could see when growth slowed down and when it resumed. We tested the root length in model organism.

We found that tested plants paused their root growth when exposed to cold or salt stress. When the stress was removed and the plants returned to normal growing conditions, root growth resumed as normal within about 24 hours.

However, plants did not respond the same way to every type of stress. We found that plants can recover from osmotic or drought stress, but it takes a little longer for them to do so. We referred to that dynamic as “pause and push” because plants need time to push through and recover.

To test whether the same stress response occurs in other plant species, we partnered with researchers from the United States Department of Agriculture. Together, we repeated the experiments using two wild grasses that are closely related to major cereal crops: brachypodium (Brachypodium distachyon) and annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum).

The grasses showed similar patterns of stress response and recovery. That suggests the mechanism that pauses and restarts growth may be shared across many plant species.

Pinpointing stress-recovery genes

Observing these dynamics is one thing, but how can scientists figure out what’s going on at the genetic and molecular level?

One common approach is to attach a fluorescent marker to genes of interest. Scientists often use a green fluorescent protein, originally discovered in jellyfish, that glows under specific light.

When this protein is inserted into a plant genome, researchers can fuse it to a gene of interest to see when and where that gene becomes active as it lights up inside cells.

We knew that the lack of growth during stress was due to a decrease in cell division, so we targeted genes related to cell division. Using fluorescent markers, we observed how the plant cells lit up differently in response to stress and stress recovery.

After counting thousands of cells for months, we could see certain genes were present in fewer cells when plants were under cold, drought and salt stress. However, within about 24 hours of being put back into optimal growth conditions, their numbers returned to normal.

One gene stood out in particular: Cyclin-dependent Kinase A;1 (CDKA;1). This gene helps regulate the cell cycle, the process that controls when cells divide and grow. A related gene named CDK1 exists in animals and humans, where it performs similar functions.

After performing more experiments targeting CDKA;1 in plants, we found that inhibiting the gene prevented plants from recovering from cold and salt stress. This suggests CDKA;1 plays a vital role in helping plants resume growth once environmental conditions stabilize.

Supporting food security

Our focus is on helping crops recover faster. We can’t stop heat waves or snowstorms. Pinpointing genes, however, can help plants recover from these events and still produce in time for harvest.

Understanding these genes opens the door to new approaches in crop breeding. Researchers could look for natural variants of these genes that already exist in crop populations. Traditional breeding programs could then select for varieties that recover faster after stress.

Another option is modern gene-editing tools such as CRISPR. This tool allows scientists to make precise changes to a plant’s DNA, including strengthening or adjusting genes involved in stress recovery.

As our research progresses, we hope to adjust the genetics of these Canadian crop varieties and create our own CRISPR-edited lines that are better able to cope with a changing climate.

Improving stress recovery could also expand where crops can be grown. Regions that currently experience unpredictable weather or short growing seasons may become more suitable for agriculture if crops can recover quickly after stress.

For Canada, this could help stabilize production in areas where climate variability is increasing. For the global food system, it could make crops better equipped to handle the environmental uncertainty expected in the coming decades.

By identifying the genes that allow plants to pause growth during stress and restart, we’re beginning to understand a critical survival strategy in plants. This knowledge can eventually help ensure crops continue to produce reliable harvests in a changing climate.

—Arif Ashraf is an assistant professor in the University of British Columbia’s department of botany. Olivia Hazelwood is a PhD student in the department of botany.

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The expected reduction comes amid disruptions to global soil-nutrient supply chains triggered by the Middle East conflict and China’s fertilizer export restrictions.

OCP, the world’s top producer of phosphates-based fertilizers, was proceeding “bringing forward planned Q3 and Q4 maintenance activities into the second quarter,” one of the sources told Reuters, requesting anonymity.

The maintenance works have been advanced “as part of normal operational planning and asset optimization, in a context of increased market uncertainty,” the source said.

The output reduction is temporary and OCP does not expect a significant impact on its annual production profile, a second company source said, adding that the expected drop was discussed during a recent investor call.

OCP is particularly exposed to fluctuations in the prices of ammonia and sulphuric acid, two key fertilizer inputs whose supply has been severely affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

OCP’s sulphuric acid imports nearly doubled to $1.6 billion (C$2.2 billion) in 2025, driven by higher consumption and prices, while ammonia imports fell nine per cent to $840 million (C$1.17 billion) as production of nitrogen‑based fertilizers declined, according to OCP’s annual report.

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The pools hold a swill of cheaper, locally sourced ingredients, which can include brans, pumpkin vines and wine lees. But it is fermented – like yogurt – so the proteins are already broken down and easy to digest, lessening the need for the higher-quality proteins in soy, 80 per cent of which China imports.

For the farm’s owner, 47-year-old Gao Qinshan, the motivation is entirely monetary. Feed accounts for 70 per cent of pig rearing costs, and soybean prices have jumped – squeezed by Beijing’s trade stand‑off with Washington and compounded by war in the Middle East.

“Soybean prices have become so unstable,” Gao lamented.

With the industry already hobbled by oversupply and weak consumer demand, “pig farming has become unprofitable,” he said. “Everyone is thinking about how to cut costs.”

Beijing moves to deploy new feed, technology

The grassroots fixation on overheads belies Beijing’s more strategic motivations: long‑term food security and increased self‑reliance.

The government sharply accelerated a drive to expand protein sources for livestock in March of last year, just as trade tensions ramped up early into President Donald Trump’s second term. Soybeans quickly became a key bargaining chip.

Reuters interviews with dozens of livestock and feed producers, state researchers and industry experts revealed Beijing is moving faster than previously thought to deploy new technologies and promote fermented feed.

It’s the agricultural equivalent of Beijing’s campaign to build domestic capabilities in microchips and artificial intelligence, catalyzed by Washington’s stringent controls on advanced technology exports to China.

In terms of agriculture, “the biggest national policy goal right now is soymeal reduction,” said Fu Zhenzhen, a feed analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants.

“The most direct reason for that is the trade war with the United States,” she said. “Fermentation is essential.”

Motivating farmers to switch

China is the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans, and imported $52.7 billion (C$73.3 billion) of the oilseed in 2024, $12 billion of which came from the U.S., the latest figures from the World Bank show.

Last year, inbound shipments increased 6.5 per cent from 2024 to a record 111.8 million metric tons, according to Chinese customs data.

Fermented feed currently accounts for eight per cent of industrial feed in China, up from three per cent in 2022, and is likely to hit 15 per cent by 2030, industry experts predict. That could help China cut soybean imports by up to 6.3 per cent from last year’s levels, according to Reuters calculations.

Pig farmers are just one piece of Beijing’s food security puzzle, albeit an important one, with pork a traditional staple of the Chinese diet — China is home to half the world’s pigs — and swine more dependent on soymeal than poultry or cattle.

Farms like Gao’s raise a third of livestock in China, the world’s biggest meat producer.

However, the switch to fermented feed requires a heavy commitment, often entailing the overhaul of entire feeding systems. Gao struggled initially, with feed growing mould and going to waste. Many farmers simply give up.

Beijing, characteristically, is leaving nothing to chance, offering incentives to every sector of the industry, and every link in the supply chain.

Targeting the entire supply chain

China’s Muyuan Foods, the world’s biggest pig farmer, has reduced soymeal in its feed from 10 per cent six years ago to 7.3 per cent now by using synthetic amino acids produced from fermented corn starch, Zhang Meng, director of the company’s feed division, told Reuters.

Agribusiness giant New Hope has developed soymeal-free chicken and duck feeds by fermenting duckweed and other cheap protein sources, according to people familiar with the matter. New Hope did not reply to a Reuters request for comment.

Working with the government, China’s two biggest dairy producers, Yili and Mengniu, have cut the amount of soymeal in cattle feed by 20 per cent, according to sources at the state-backed National Center of Technology Innovation for Dairy. Yili declined to comment, and Mengniu did not reply to a request for comment.

All of the figures on soymeal reduction are being reported for the first time.

China has also attracted foreign investment, with Dutch-based trading house Louis Dreyfus planning to build its first fermented feed production line in the northern port city of Tianjin.

“China is standing at the forefront of fermentation technology,” said Shambhu Nath Jha, principal consultant at Fact.MR.

The U.S.-headquartered consultancy estimates that the value of China’s fermented feed market vaulted to $6 billion (C$8.3 billion) last year, catching up fast on Europe’s leading but more mature market, worth $7 billion. The U.S. market, by contrast, is worth just $2.5 billion, because soybeans and corn are more readily available.

For poultry, China’s 25 per cent fermented feed adoption rate already surpasses Europe’s 20 per cent, according to Fact.MR.

Costs, complexity and taste

Beijing has momentum on its side: Pork prices at 16-year lows make any cost-reduction scheme an easy sell.

Where the fermentation pitch runs into problems is the lack of a standardized approach, analysts said.

Some argue that pigs mature more slowly if farmers simply ferment whatever food sources are available, and can be weaker to disease.

The ultimate test may be taste.

“There is so much demand from consumers for better quality meat, but the industry is just focused on reducing costs and doing what the government wants,” said Ian Lahiffe, an agriculture consultant in Beijing.

“There are a lot of benefits to feeding soybeans,” he said. “They need to think about how to avoid sacrificing animal health and meat flavour.”

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The case is part of broader scrutiny in the U.S. over so-called right-to-repair practices, with regulators and plaintiffs arguing that some manufacturers limit competition by controlling access to repair tools and software.

What does the settlement cover?

The settlement fund covers eligible plaintiffs who paid Deere’s authorized dealers for repairs to large agricultural equipment from January 2018, according to a document filed on Monday in the federal court in Chicago, Illinois.

In the settlement, Deere also agreed to make available to farmers for 10 years “the digital tools required for the maintenance, diagnosis, and repair” of large agricultural equipment, including tractors, combines, and sugarcane harvesters, the filing showed.

The proposed accord requires a judge’s approval.

“This settlement addresses the issues raised in the 2022 complaint and brings this case to an end with no finding of wrongdoing,” Deere said in a separate statement.

Deere faces FTC suit

Deere also faces a separate lawsuit brought by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission. A U.S. judge ruled in 2025 that Deere must face that lawsuit, which accused the company of forcing farmers to use its authorized dealer network and driving up their costs for parts and repairs.

Deere is blocking farmers from acquiring the “tools and information necessary to repair their equipment in a timely and cost-effective manner,” the FTC had said in a court filing in April. Deere has denied the wrongdoing.

— Reporting by Carlos Méndez, Mrinmay Dey in Mexico City and Mike Scarcella in Washington

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WHY IT MATTERS: Analysts said the April 5 attack on the ship added to risks to global food security and agricultural trade stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

Russian media said the vessel was carrying wheat from the Port of Azov, near the city of Rostov, to Port Kavkaz in the strait separating the Crimean peninsula from mainland Russia, where the grain is usually loaded onto larger vessels for export.

TASS quoted emergency services as saying the vessel, which was gutted by fire and began to sink, was towed to the village of Kuchugury in Russia’s Krasnodar region. A video posted by the news agency showed the vessel engulfed in flames and smoke. The agency said two badly burned bodies were found aboard the ship, bringing the death toll to three. An aide to the vessel’s captain had earlier been reported dead.

Public ship databases list Volgo-Balt 138-class vessels at about 3,165 tons deadweight.

Grain consultancy Sovecon earlier described the incident as the first known sinking of a grain-loaded ship in the Black Sea-Azov basin, a major grain-trading route, since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

“Against the backdrop of Iran’s conflict and the effective paralysis of diplomacy among Washington, Moscow and Kyiv, the risk of further escalation in the region appears to have increased significantly,” Sovecon head Andrey Sizov said.

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Beef prices set records this year after the nation’s cattle supply dropped to a 75-year low, leading to record prices for meatpackers such as JBS to buy cattle to slaughter, despite benefiting from the climbing prices.

WHY IT MATTERS: The strike at JBS’s Greely, Colorado site has weighed, somewhat, on U.S. beef prices.

The union representing about 3,800 plant workers said the new round of talks would resume on April 9 and 10 after last month’s strike to press for wages that reflect inflation and a halt to company charges for replacing protective equipment.

“Workers remain united and will continue to fight until JBS fully ends its unfair labor practices,” said Kim Cordova, president of the local union representing the Greeley workers.

It is calling for a contract offer that protects workers, shows them the respect they deserve, and pays them a livable wage, he added in a statement.

There had been no new deal or change to the original offer, a JBS spokesperson told Reuters.

“We are pleased to welcome our team members back and are preparing to resume and ramp up operations at the Greeley plant next week,” the spokesperson added in an email.

The strike dealt a blow to U.S. processing capacity, after Tyson Foods closed a beef plant in Nebraska this year and reduced operations at a Texas facility.

The dispute with the workers, represented by the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7 union, comes as meatpackers typically seek to boost efficiency by running plants at peak capacity to offset hefty running costs.

— Reporting by Gnaneshwar Rajan and Chandni Shah in Bengaluru

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Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, told reporters he also discussed the impact of geopolitical tensions on the oil and gas market and how China sees Canada as a stable energy supplier.

“We are becoming a partner of choice,” he said.

WHY IT MATTERS: While China has lowered levies on Canadian agricultural products like canola, it continues to charge a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian pork.

The two officials also agreed to hold high-level economic and financial dialogue in the second half of this year, according to an official Chinese summary of the meeting.

Champagne said the discussions centred on the financial services sector but addressed trade in energy and pork, as well as fair labour practices.

“Canada puts a lot of importance on supply chain integrity and that our bilateral trade needs to be conducted in accordance with international standards,” Champagne said.

Canada, like China, has been targeted with tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump since his administration took office in January 2025. Strained U.S. trade relations have posed a major challenge for the Canadian economy.

Among the Trump administration’s actions, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office in March said it initiated a second set of unfair trade practice probes of 60 economies, including Canada and China.

Tariffs on Canadian pork discussed

China is Canada’s second-largest trade partner with about C$120 billion of bilateral trade. Canada aims to increase its overall exports to China by 50 per cent by 2030.

Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in January as Ottawa works to diversify trade away from its largest partner, the United States.

While China suspended some agricultural levies on Canada following Carney’s visit, Beijing still has a 25 per cent tariff on imports of Canadian pork, which Champagne said he raised during the meetings.

“Part of my message to the Chinese side was, really, we need to get to a point where we remove these trade irritants,” he said. “I’m leaving Beijing tomorrow with the feeling that we have laid the foundation.”

Champagne added that the automotive sector was not discussed, following reports that Stellantis was reviewing options for building electric vehicles in Canada with Chinese partner Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology.

He said Stellantis would need to live up to its obligations on investments and workers in Canada.

— Additional reporting from Reuters’ Beijing newsroom

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Planting of wheat, canola and other crops is set to gather pace this month across much of Australia and farmers need ample supplies of crop nutrients to support early growth.

The price of urea in Australia was quoted around A$1,350 (C$1,298) per ton this week, up about 60 per cent since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, analysts said. Australian diesel prices are up 88 per cent over the same period.

“Farmers are trying to reduce fertilizer application and switching planting from nitrogen hungry crops like wheat and canola into feed barley,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Some are also reducing planted area, but this so far is minimal,” he said.

Australia’s wheat planting could drop by 10 per cent to 12 per cent given the current conditions, from 12.4 million hectares a year ago, an agricultural broker and an analyst said. Cultivation of canola is also likely to decline despite higher returns, they said. Both declined to be named.

Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and No. 2 supplier of canola, selling to importers across Asia, the Middle East and Europe. It also sells crops such as barley, chickpeas and pulses.

Straight of Hormuz is fertilizer choke point

Farmers worldwide are struggling to secure fertilizer supplies as planting season in key countries gets underway, with the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 30 per cent of globally traded fertilizers, severely disrupted by the Iran war.

Bank of America warned that the conflict threatens 65 per cent to 70 per cent of global supplies of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, with prices already up 30 per cent to 40 per cent.

U.S. farmers plan to plant less corn and more soybeans in 2026 than last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. China has curbed fertilizer exports, while India is tapping alternative sources to boost supplies for summer-sown crops.

Corn, wheat and canola usually require higher application of urea than barley and pulses.

“Australia typically relies on China for urea, but export curbs have limited shipments,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

“Buyers turned to Indonesia, only to face further constraints there and by the time they sought supplies from the Middle East, the war had already started and the Strait of Hormuz had closed.”

Crops need fertilizer at the start of planting as well as in development and pre-maturity stages. Crops planted in April and May are harvested in November and December.

“It is a big issue as the cost of farming has risen sharply in the last one month,” said Tobin Gorey, founder of commodities consultancy Cornucopia in Sydney.

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Shares of Hellmann’s mayonnaise owner Unilever and Frank’s RedHot sauce maker McCormick fell on Tuesday following the announcement over concerns about the transaction’s structure, long path to closing and antitrust risks.

The top U.S. spice maker, home to more than 30 household brands, is playing the long game, some analysts said.

While many food companies are scrambling to reformulate products and resize portions as the surging popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs reshapes eating habits, McCormick argues that flavor will remain essential even as calorie counts fall.

“We will continue to flavor calories while others compete for them,” McCormick CEO Brendan Foley, a packaged-food industry veteran, said on a call with investors on Tuesday.

“As consumers increasingly focus on cooking at home, adding more protein and produce, and pursuing healthier lifestyles, flavor plays a critical role in elevating those choices,” Foley said.

The GLP-1 bet

The surge in weight-loss drug use has consumers craving more flavor ‌in their food, leading to condiment and spice makers benefiting and attracting more interest in the M&A marketplace, dealmakers have said.

“Consumers shifting away from fatty, greasy, or overly sweet foods … creates a massive opportunity for flavor enhancers (spices and hot sauces) that provide sensory satisfaction without adding calories,” said Timothy Malefyt, professor of marketing at the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University.

The deal will also help the U.S. company tap into Knorr stock cubes maker Unilever’s global scale and expertise, executives said on Tuesday’s investor call. Unilever executives highlighted its popular flavors such as Asian and Chinese.

“McCormick with this could be well-positioned to create the right nutritional functional benefit in food that is lacking in America right now,” said Mike Anstey, founder of Pilot Lite, a global CPG (consumer packaged goods) commercialization partner.

It would also open up key emerging markets such as Brazil, China and countries across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

“(The deal) represents a step-change in scale, broadening MKC’s exposure to faster-growing emerging markets and expanding opportunities for its foodservice platform,” Jefferies analyst Scott Marks said in a note.

Unkind market conditions

McCormick is seeking new markets and flavors against the backdrop of a tough U.S. market, where consumers are eating healthier and also looking for cheaper pantry alternatives and smaller pack sizes to stretch budgets hit by inflation.

“We’re certainly aware of the near-term pressures facing not just the food industry but broadly … the conflict in the Middle East and the broader CPG space. However, we continue to believe in just the long-term fundamentals that really underpin the confidence in this combination,” McCormick’s Foley said.

The company’s total volume growth has slowed over the last year, and was down 0.7 per cent in the most recently reported quarter, falling across both its consumer brands and flavor solutions segments.

“Despite the combination’s strategic merits, we think this may be a ploy to incite growth in an industry where gains have stagnated,” said Erin Lash, analyst at Morningstar Research.

Rival Kraft Heinz, which media reports said had explored a bid for Unilever’s food business, underscored the tougher U.S. market when it paused plans for a split.

“Investors should look at this transaction more optimistically than broken deals like Kraft Heinz because it creates value through greater depth in a single category, flavorings, rather than diversification,” said TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow in a note.

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