North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola falls with shifting weather forecasts

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, June 14 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Monday, dropping in sympathy with the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex as North American weather forecasts turn more moderate. Chart-based selling contributed to the declines, with some stops likely hit on the way down.

Recent rains in parts of Western Canada helped boost crop prospects for canola. However, conditions remain hot in some areas and more moisture will be needed through the growing season.

Tight old crop supplies and uncertainty over new crop production remained supportive, with scale-down end user demand providing underlying support.

About 17,688 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 18,097 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 4,018 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Monday, with shifting weather forecasts calling for rain and more moderate temperatures in parts of the Midwest over the next week to 10 days triggering some speculative long liquidation.

Sharp overnight declines in Malaysian palm oil contributed to the weakness in soybeans. Talk of possible changes to biofuel policy in the United States added to the general bearishness in soyoil.

While still lacking confirmation, there were reports that the U.S. may be looking at reducing blending requirements for renewable fuel which would cut into the demand for both soyoil-based biodiesel and corn-based ethanol.

CORN was also pressured by the biofuel talk and the Midwest weather forecasts, despite persistent dryness in some areas.

Ongoing concerns over hot and dry weather in Brazil remained supportive, but Argentina’s corn crop has seen some better weather and the crop there is thought to be in decent shape

WHEAT futures were down across the board, as ample world supplies pressured the market. Better moisture prospects in North American spring wheat regions were especially bearish for the Minneapolis futures.

Wheat production estimates out of Russia were revised 1.5 million tonnes higher by SovEcon, with the country’s crop now pegged at 82.4 million tonnes by the consultancy.

Futures Prices as of June 14, 2021

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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