North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola corrects higher late Tuesday

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Aug. 3 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was mostly higher at Tuesday’s close, recovering from earlier losses amid ongoing concerns over drought conditions across Western Canada.

Declines in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex put some early pressure on the Canadian oilseed, with speculators taking profits on their long positions contributing to the declines. However, that early selling ran out of steam and support was uncovered to the downside.

Hot and dry Prairie weather helped underpin the canola market, with little relief in the nearby forecasts and anecdotal reports pointing to very low yields across Western Canada.

Weakness in the Canadian dollar, which dipped back below 80 United States cents, was also supportive.

About 22,901 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Friday when 20,571 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 13,586 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Monday, dropping below nearby chart support as better-than-expected weekly condition ratings weighed on values.

United States soybean crop ratings saw an unexpected improvement in the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report, with 60 per cent of the crop now in the good-to-excellent category. That was up two points on the week. Blooming and pod setting were both slightly ahead of average.

Midwestern forecasts are mixed. While there is some moisture expected over the next few weeks, temperatures remain very hot.

CORN was also watching the Midwestern weather situation closely, with prices moving lower on the day.

Crop ratings for U.S. corn dipped two points in the top categories on the week, with 62 per cent good-to-excellent.

Brazil’s second corn harvest is underway, with production estimates out of the country being revised lower by some analysts after dryness during the growing season was followed by untimely frosts.

WHEAT was mixed, seeing some consolidation after rallying sharply higher on Monday.

The U.S. spring wheat crop was rated 10 per cent good-to-excellent which was up one point on the week.

The spring wheat harvest is underway, running well ahead of normal with 17 per cent of the crop already off the fields.
The U.S. winter wheat harvest was 91 per cent done, which compares to the average of 86 per cent for this time of year.

Futures Prices as of August 3, 2021

Price Change
Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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