North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Consolidation the order of the day

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Feb. 14 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts finished lower on Friday, due to heavy spread activity and weaker vegetable oil prices.

A Winnipeg-based trader said there will be issues down the road should blockades of rail traffic across the country continue. Since last week, the blockades have created a massive bottleneck that will take Canadian National Railway weeks or months to undo. That will cause shipping delays and hurt prices.

By mid-afternoon Friday, the Canadian dollar was virtually unchanged at 75.45 U.S. cents.

There were 39,222 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 37,162 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 33,622 contracts traded.

The markets will be closed on Monday for holidays in Canada and the United States.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Mar 459.50 dn 4.30
May 468.70 dn 3.90
Jul 475.00 dn 3.70
Nov 482.90 dn 3.10

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly lower on Friday, as the markets consolidated ahead of Presidents’ Day on Monday.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its agricultural projections to 2029 on Friday. The reports stated the U.S. share of the global soybean market over the next five years will be 34.0 to 35.0 per cent. The report also said the U.S. will face increased competition from South America, and Ukraine to a lesser extent.

On Feb. 20 and 21, the USDA Ag Outlook Forum in Washington will release data on the upcoming year.

Exports of U.S. soybeans have not been faring well in the 2019/20 marketing year. The USDA reported soybean exports were 64 per cent below the five-average.

There continues to be hopes that China will soon start its purchases of US$40 billion of U.S. agricultural products, as the Phase One trade agreement comes into effect on Saturday.

Ahead of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report on Tuesday, market expectations were for the January crush to be about 174.0 million bushels.

CORN futures were lower on Friday, caught up the consolidation.

The USDA reported the U.S. share of the global corn market will slip from 29.5 per cent to 29.0 in the next five years. In the following five years, the U.S. share is expected to inch up to 30 per cent.

The USDA report corn exports have reached 27 per cent of projections, which was seven points under the average pace.

WHEAT futures were steady to lower on Friday, also caught up in today’s consolidating.

The USDA’s forecast for the U.S. share of the global wheat market is to hold firm between 12.0 to 13.0 per cent over the next five years.

FranceAgriMer estimated the French soft wheat crop to be 65 per cent good to excellent. That’s 20 points below this time last year due to heavy precipitation.

Futures Prices as of February 14, 2020

Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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