North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola up, but well off of highs

Gains for U.S. corn, wheat, as soybeans dip

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Sept. 14 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were stronger on Tuesday, but backed well away from earlier highs. At one point the November contract reached C$900.00 per tonne.

Support came from the Statistics Canada production update, which lowered 2021/22 canola production from 14.7 million tonnes last month to 12.8 million tonnes. Compared to the previous year, the canola harvest is down more than 34 per cent.

Spillover came from gains in Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Those increases were tempered by declines in Chicago soybeans and soymeal.

The Prairie weather forecast is conducive to the ongoing harvest, with daytime temperatures in the high teens to low 20 degrees Celsius. Scattered showers are expected for the northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Manitoba is scheduled to issue its weekly crop report later this afternoon. Last week the province-wide harvest of major crops was around 50 per cent complete with the combining of canola at 32 per cent done.

The Canadian dollar was lower, with the loonie at 78.85 U.S. cents, compared to Monday’s close of 78.98.

There were 39,618 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 19,663 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 26,554 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 872.30 up 10.60
Jan 863.00 up 10.20
Mar 849.90 up 8.90
May 833.80 up 6.40

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly lower on Tuesday, as crop conditions did not change from the previous week.

The United States Department of Agriculture held soybean conditions at 57 per cent good to excellent for the week ended Sept. 12. At 38 per cent, soybeans dropping leaves gained 20 points and nine points ahead of the five-year average.

The USDA reported weekly export inspections of soybeans were 105,368 tonnes for the week ended Sept. 9. The year-to-date amounted to 135,772 tonnes for a 94.1 per cent drop from this time last year. The aftermath of Hurricane Ida was among the reasons for the declines in export inspections.

Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor bumped up his call on U.S. soybean yields for 2021/22 to 50.3 bushels per acre. That compares to the USDA most recent forecast of 50.6 bu/ac.

Soybean planting in Brazil is just underway with the agriculture department extending the planting window from 110 days to 140.

CORN futures were higher on Tuesday, as U.S. corn conditions slipped one point to 58 per cent good to excellent and the harvest registered at four per cent complete, a pinch lower than this time last year.

The USDA report corn export inspections for the week at 138,189 tonnes, which brought the year-to-date at 177,642 and 85.3 per cent lower than a year ago.

Cordonnier has forecast U.S. corn yields in 2021/22 to be 176.0 bu/ac. compared to the USDA’s projection of 176.3.

Canada’s corn production is one of the rare bright spots in the latest Statistics Canada production report, with the 2021/22 crop to increase 5.9 per cent at nearly 14.37 million tonnes. A large portion of the country’s corn is grown in Ontario, which did not incur a drought such as that across the Prairies.

France added 100,000 tonnes to its 2021/22 corn production estimate of 13.3 million tonnes.

Ukraine maintained its corn production forecast at 38.2 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were stronger on Tuesday due to a sharply reduced harvest in Canada.

Total Canadian wheat production has been projected to fall to about 21.71 million tonnes, a drop of 38.3 per cent from last year. Statistics Canada now expects spring wheat production to come in at 15.32 million tonnes, tumbling 40.7 per cent from a year ago, with durum falling 39.2 per cent at 3.55 million tonnes. Canadian winter wheat nudges higher by 2.8 per cent at 2.85 million tonnes.

The USDA reported the planting of winter wheat was at 12 per cent finished, for a gain of seven points on the week and four above the five-year average. The barley harvest was just short of completion at 97 per cent done.

The department said wheat export inspections came to 547,943 tonnes. At about 7.07 million tonnes, the year-to-date is down 13.4 per cent from last year.

France reduced its soft wheat estimate by 1.7 per cent at 36.06 million tonnes. However that would still make for 23.6 per cent increase over last year’s crop.

Ukraine upped its wheat production for 2021/22 by 2.3 per cent, bringing it to 31.2 million tonnes.

Australia has pegged its grain exports at US$40.2 billion for 2021/22, which would be a new record.

Futures Prices as of September 14, 2021

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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