Wittal: Yield expectations rising

July 20 — I made it back from our trek on the West Coast trail alive and well, albeit a little stiff, sore and bruised. I got home at 2 p.m. today, so this will be a short recap of what the markets did today and over the past week.

Reviewing the markets of the past week, I see a continued sideways trend developing as we continue through the growing season. Financial markets look to have remained steady-to-up the past week and the Canadian dollar is trading at the 90-cent level, which will not be supportive to canola futures.

The Dow Jones September quote closed at 8,805, up 10 per cent from last week, an impressive rally.

Crude oil closed up at US$63.98 a barrel, up $3.50 from last week.

Corn closed up one to four cents per bushel today — down four cents a bushel from last week.

Beans ended up 23 cents to down two cents a bushel today — up 15 cents a bushel from last week.

Wheat closed up 10 cents to down two cents a bushel on the various U.S. exchanges.

Minneapolis September wheat futures closed unchanged today — down 13 cents a bushel from last week.

Canola closed down $2 to $5 per tonne today, down $3 per tonne from last week.

Barley closed down $2.10 at $155 per tonne — down $7.50 per tonne from last week.

Almost-perfect growing conditions in the U.S. Midwest the past few weeks have kept markets in this bearish sideways trend, with little or no news or new sales to help push markets out of this trough they’re in.

Yield expectations are beginning to rise if this weather continues and if better yields are realized, lower prices will be a definite result of that.

World buyers are very comfortable to sit back and wait to see how the North American crop continues to grow under these almost-ideal conditions and the longer they can wait, the more downward pressure will be put on the futures, allowing them to buy cheaper later on.

That’s all for today. — Brian

— Brian Wittal has spent over 27 years in the grain industry, including as an elevator manager and producer services representative for Alberta Wheat Pool, a regional sales manager for AgPro Grain and farm business representative for the Canadian Wheat Board, where he helped design some of the new pricing programs. He also operates his own company providing marketing and risk management advice for Prairie grain producers. Brian’s daily commentaries focus on how domestic and world market conditions affect you directly as grain producers.

Brian welcomes feedback and information on market conditions in your area, such as current offering prices, basis levels, trucking premiums and special crops contracts. Contact Brian today.

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Brian Wittal

Brian Wittal has 30 years of grain industry experience and currently offers market planning and marketing advice to farmers through his company Pro Com Marketing Ltd.

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