Sept. 22 — Outside markets were mildly supportive today, which helped grains try to regain some of yesterday’s losses. Concerns of frost in the U.S. over the next week lent some support to prices as well today, as crops are still far enough behind that a frost would certainly affect yield and quality.
Slow exports of U.S. beans the past week have some concerned that this may be China’s way or retaliating for the recent U.S. ban on Chinese tires, and with South America in the midst of a bumper bean harvest there are concerns the U.S. could lose out on futures sales. This would be negative for canola if U.S. bean futures started to fall.
Currencies were volatile again today, with the U.S. dollar trading down almost three-quarters of a cent and closing down 0.68 cents on the day.
The Canadian dollar was up as much as nine-10ths of a cent today, and finished up 0.81 cents to close the day at US93.58 cents.
The Dow Jones December quote finished up 58 points, closing at 9,765.
Crude oil closed up $1.84, at US$71.55 a barrel.
Corn closed up nine to 11 cents a bushel today. Beans closed up four to 8.4 cents a bushel on the day.
Wheat futures closed unchanged to down 3.6 cents a bushel on the various exchanges. Minneapolis December wheat closed down 2.4 cents a bushel for the day.
Canola closed up 30 cents to $4.20 per tonne today.
October Western barley dropped $1, closing at $119 per tonne. November futures closed down 50 cents, at $150 per tonne.
Pea markets have certainly cooled their heels over the past four months. At present there doesn’t seem to be any real focus in the market that would make one think prices will rebound any time soon. With harvest in full swing and elevators filling up with harvest deliveries of wheat and canola to meet aggressive sales programs, peas are on the back burner for now.
I would suspect we will probably see some renewed interest just before the holiday season and into the early new year, as buyers (primarily India) have a chance to calculate what they have and what they will need for stocks to get them through the year.
Wait for the renewed buying interest to surface before selling, as there is room for upside over where current values are today.
That’s all for today. — Brian
— Brian Wittal has spent over 27 years in the grain industry, including as an elevator manager and producer services representative for Alberta Wheat Pool, a regional sales manager for AgPro Grain and farm business representative for the Canadian Wheat Board, where he helped design some of the new pricing programs. He also operates his own company providing marketing and risk management advice for Prairie grain producers. Brian’s daily commentaries focus on how domestic and world market conditions affect you directly as grain producers.
Brian welcomes feedback and information on market conditions in your area, such as current offering prices, basis levels, trucking premiums and special crops contracts. Contact Brian today.