Wittal: StatsCan canola acreage surprise

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The Stats Canada seeded acreage report had a few surprises today from what I thought the acres might be. Canola coming in 1.1 million acres below last year is a bit of a surprise. Cost of inputs and rotational concerns are no doubt reducing some canola acres and it does bring the total back in line with the five-year average so it is not unreasonable.

Barley acres slightly up over last year is also surprising as returns do not pencil very well. Pea acreage is also bigger than expected but reduced input costs may be the key to the extra intended acres there.

 

Overall the report is seen as supportive for canola, neutral for wheat and negative for barley and peas.

I don’t expect a lot of futures movement based on this report as these numbers will and have changed since the report was put together a month ago.

The Dow Jones closed up 119 points today. The US dollar finished down 6/10th of a cent. The Canadian dollar was up 1.17 today to close at US82.82. Crude oil finished up $1.93, closing at US$51.55/barrel.

Corn finished down 4 to 5 cents/bu, beans finished up 2 to 10 cents/bu, and wheat was mixed,closing up 7 to down 4 cents.

Canola is up $2 to $4/t for the day, and barley finished down $1.00/t closing at $136.00/t. The rising Canadian dollar held canola from making further gains today.

Weather is in the driver’s seat right now and we could be going for a wild ride over the next few weeks. Keep your seat belt on and hang on.
 
That’s all for this week.
Brian

                   2004       2005      2006       2007      2008       2009
All Wheat     25.553    24.943    26.387    21.617    25.097    25.161
Barley         11.559    10.972     9.540    10.865     9.357     9.476
Oats            4.930     4.580       4.751     5.408      4.345     3.955
Canola         13.145    13.570    13.276  14.726   16.160    14.990
Flaxseed       1.800     2.080     2.080     1.305       1.560     1.725
Corn            2.928     2.778     2.786     3.439        2.975     3.084
Soybeans     3.037     2.907     3.059     2.916       2.971     3.284
S-fallow       8.920    10.160    10.710     7.710      6.070     5.995
Peas                                                                   3.993     4.235

 

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Brian Wittal

Brian Wittal has 30 years of grain industry experience and currently offers market planning and marketing advice to farmers through his company Pro Com Marketing Ltd.

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