Wittal: Seeding predictions boost grain markets

Jan. 16 — Grain futures were up again today across the board. Corn was up 25 cents a bushel, beans up 12-25 cents a bushel, wheat up nine to 15 cents a bushel, canola up $2-$4 per tonne and barley up $4-$6 per tonne.

Informa Economics came out with its predictions of intended seeded acreage and yields for the coming spring. Corn, at 82.7 million acres, is seen down 3.2 million from last year; beans, at 80.8 million acres, are seen as up 5.1 million acres from last year; and wheat, at 59.1 million acres, is expected down four million acres from last year.

In terms of Informa’s yield estimates, corn is expected to yield 159.2 bushels per acre, for a potential crop of 12.05 billion bushels, 48 million below last year’s crop. Soybean yield is estimated at 42.9 bushels per acre, for a crop totaling 3.43 billion bushels, or 471 million above last year. Wheat yields are forecast at 44 bushels per acre, for a crop total of 2.28 billion bushels, 224 million below last year.

These numbers are very preliminary and no doubt can and will change over the next nine months, but they did help to lend some support to markets today.

The U.S. is also heading into the Martin Luther King Jr. Day long weekend, so markets will be closed Monday in the U.S.

Concerns of dryness in South America are still very much alive, as beans are heading into the time period when they need the largest amount of moisture to ensure proper yields.

This will no doubt be watched closely these next few weeks, as yields are and will continue to be impacted if this dryness persists.

Enjoy the weekend: we are supposed to have +10 to +14 C in the Calgary region for a few days.

We will be back next week with more market news. — Brian

Brian Wittal has spent over 27 years in the grain industry, including as an elevator manager and producer services representative for Alberta Wheat Pool, a regional sales manager for AgPro Grain and farm business representative for the Canadian Wheat Board, where he helped design some of the new pricing programs. He also operates his own company providing marketing and risk management advice for Prairie grain producers. Brian’s daily commentaries focus on how domestic and world market conditions affect you directly as a grain producers. He welcomes feedback and information on market conditions in your area, such as current offering prices, basis levels, trucking premiums and special crops contracts.

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Brian Wittal

Brian Wittal has 30 years of grain industry experience and currently offers market planning and marketing advice to farmers through his company Pro Com Marketing Ltd.

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