StatsCan stocks report to confirm canola, feed usage

An updated grain and oilseed stocks-in-all-positions report, due Monday from Statistics Canada, will be watched to confirm usage of the various crops — and to see if there have been any adjustments to last year’s production.

"I think the important numbers will be the usage pace, especially for canola since exports and domestic demand have been running at record levels," said Ron Frost, a grain/oilseed analyst with Frost Forecast Consulting of Calgary.

The export pace of canola from Labour Day through to just recently was extremely aggressive, he said, and will be monitored to see if supplies of the commodity are indeed tight.

Apart from the domestic demand for canola, the usage of wheat and barley numbers will also be closely monitored, said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Winnipeg office of Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Produits.

"The key to the wheat and barley numbers will be the feed usage pace," he said.

Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada, agreed the usage numbers will be important, but participants will also want to see if the government agency adjusts production numbers from 2011.

In particular, he said, the output numbers for canola, oats, canary seed and lentils in 2011 are believed to have been understated.

"If so, that will make a difference in the supply situation heading into the termination of the 2011-12 crop year July 31," Jubinville said, noting that these numbers will have to be seen "between the lines."

"The only way there will be any kind of reaction is if canola stocks are extremely low," Frost said.

If the estimates for all wheat, barley, oats or any of the other major crops are adjusted by 500,000 tonnes of so, there will be almost no reaction likely on Friday, Jubinville said.

Table: Preliminary trade estimates ahead of Statistics Canada’s grain and oilseed stocks in all positions report, scheduled for release May 7. Figures in millions of tonnes.

  Total stocks Total stocks
  March 31 2011-12 March 31 2010-11
  Estimate Actual
All wheat 14.400-15.300 15.803
   Durum 2.700-2.900 3.056
Canola 4.200-4.800 6.157
Barley 3.000-4.100 3.540
Oats 1.300-1.800 1.694

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