StatsCan confirms record-large canola ending stocks

MarketsFarm — Canadian canola ending stocks hit a new record for the 2018-19 crop year, according to updated data Statistics Canada released Friday.

Canadian canola stocks as of July 31 came in at 3.9 million tonnes, up by 55 per cent on the year and about 800,000 tonnes above the previous record set in July 2014. The large stocks compare with the previous five-year average of 2.3 million tonnes. On-farm canola stocks of 2.6 million tonnes were up by one million from the previous year.

Record supplies going into the marketing year, coupled with a slowdown in export demand, contributed to the large ending stocks, according to StatsCan. The government agency noted exports were down by 12.9 per cent on the year, due largely to a million-tonne reduction in sales to China.

The ICE Futures canola market had little reaction to the data, as the stocks were largely in line with trade expectations.

While canola stocks were record-large, the barley carryout hit its smallest level in data going back to 1980. Total barley ending stocks of 893,000 tonnes were down by 28 per cent from 2017-18 and well below the five-year average of 1.6 million tonnes.

StatsCan said solid demand for both feed and malt barley caused exports and domestic usage to increase on the year.

Total wheat ending stocks of 6.2 million tonnes were down slightly from the 6.5 million-tonne carryout from the previous year and compare with the five-year average of 7.2 million tonnes. Of the total, durum ending stocks of 1.6 million tonnes were up by 200,000 tonnes on the year.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s stocks report for the period ended July 31, 2019. Figures in millions of metric tonnes.

Total stocks, Total stocks, Five-year average,
July 31, 2019.    . July 31, 2018. 2014-2018
Barley 0.893 1.244 1.594
Canola 3.873 2.499 2.303
Flaxseed 0.052 0.127 0.167
Oats 0.414 0.778 0.844
All wheat.    . 6.184 6.479 7.217
Durum 1.619 1.426 1.414
Lentils 0.654 0.873 0.482
Peas 0.388 0.648 0.427

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