CNS Canada – Improving Midwestern weather forecasts weighed on soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade during the week ended August 2, with all eyes now turning to upcoming USDA data.
The USDA is set to release a number of key reports on August 10, including updated world supply/demand numbers and US production estimates.
“The USDA report will dictate where we trade over the next 30 days,” said Terry Reilly, of Futures International in Chicago.
For soybeans, he said there was a bearish bias in the market heading into the report. Looking at November soybeans, there’s a gap on the charts between US$9.58 and US$9.63 per bushel (June 30 to July 3), which is a downward objective that Reilly expected to be filled.
December corn, meanwhile, finds itself near the bottom of a well-established range, with Reilly expecting the contract to hold between US$3.75 and US$3.90 per bushel until some fresh fundamental news materializes to break the market out of that range.
While some dryness issues persist, the overall weather forecasts across the Midwest look relatively favourable for crop development and the weather premium is coming out of the soybean and corn markets, according to Reilly.
He noted that fund traders were sitting on net long positions of about 54,000 contracts in nearby soybeans and 167,000 in corn, but were now adding shorts and should move to neutral or net short territory over the next month.