Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World on Tuesday raised its estimate of the global 2012-13 rapeseed/canola crop to 61.6 million tonnes, up from 59.59 million harvested in 2011-12.
This estimate exceeds Oil World’s estimated global 2012-13 season rapeseed consumption of 61.2 million tonnes, which was also up from 60.95 million tonnes in 2011-12.
The analysts cited an improved outlook for the 2012-13 canola harvest in Canada, which Oil World said was likely to rise to 16.2 million tonnes from 14.5 million last season.
This would compensate for a forecast drop in the European Union crop to 18 million tonnes from 19.17 million last season and a drop in Ukraine’s crop to about 950,000 tonnes from 1.37 million, Oil World said.
Tighter global soybean supplies following poor South American crops could turn more buyers to rapeseed, it said.
"Rapeseed and canola prices have become comparatively attractive to soybeans recently," it said. "This could stimulate additional (rapeseed) purchases from China, Mexico and other importing countries."
"China is to be seen as the biggest swing factor."
China’s 2012-13 rapeseed imports are likely to rise to 2.7 million tonnes from 2.4 million last season, and 2012-13 imports of three million tonnes cannot be ruled out, it said.
"We expect that Chinese import demand for Canadian canola will be particularly high until December, and it remains to be seen how aggressively China buys," it said.
— Reporting for Reuters by Michael Hogan