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Market Insight: World waits on Canadian durum

Canadian durum wheat plantings for 2008 exceeded six million acres. Record 2007 prices and improved agronomics seemed enough to encourage farmers to increase seeded area
of the crop. The global durum market has been eagerly anticipating a big increase in
Canadian production this year. In fact, a large part of the global market outlook hinges on
plentiful supplies of Canadian durum, especially with the U.S. crop looking threatened.

Statistics Canada did project a big increase in the durum crop to 4.9 million tonnes, but
the result was below what the market was expecting. Still, even this lower-than-expected

production should take some pressure off what has been a tight supply. However, there
have been some quality problems showing up in early harvest results, a situation that will
continue to be closely monitored in the marketplace.

Durum demand from the U.S. should remain steady, while elsewhere in the world Canada
will have to compete against an increase in exports from the EU. Canada’s exports may
expand over last year, but buyers will once again have a choice of at least two sellers.

– The FarmLink Market Insight was researched and produced by FarmLink Marketing Solutions, a marketing advisory service for Prairie farmers, and is published here with permission of the authors.

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