CNS Canada — The bulk of Manitoba’s soybean crop may be off the field but isn’t likely headed to market anytime soon, according to an analyst.
Local elevators are filling up “incredibly fast” with crops such as wheat and oats, “so soybeans may or may not have bin space at some of these elevators,” said Shawn Rempel, product manager for Quarry Seed at Stonewall, Man.
The glut of soybeans in the U.S. has filled up many U.S. elevators also, putting Canadian shipments on the back burner, he said.
“You can assume a lot of soybeans will stay on the farm until the new year; if there’s any kind of pricing rally then I assume guys will pull the trigger,” said Rempel.
The current price farmers in Manitoba can expect to see is roughly $8.50 to $9 per bushel, he noted.
“Right now farmers are just not happy or even remotely looking forward to selling their soybeans at these prices,” he said, noting producers who already moved their beans did so likely just to get them off the farm.
According to Statistics Canada, 1.3 million acres of soybeans were planted in Manitoba in 2014.
Average soybean yields in bushels per acre are likely in the mid-30s, according to Dennis Lange of Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development at Altona. Results varied region to region, with crops in the Red River valley likely among the most advanced.
Yields in Saskatchewan are expected to be in the high 20s, according to Carl Potts, executive director of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.
Acreage has increased in the province in recent years but it doesn’t appear the gains will be as large as initially thought.
“We were thinking we could be in the 300,000 acres (range), but the actual seeded area might be around the 200,000 acres mark,” said Potts.
Meanwhile, Rempel said, much of the attention will now turn to South America’s soybean crop. The acreage is usually the same, he noted, but it’s the weather patterns that people will watch.
Last week dry conditions were threatening much of the soybean development in the main growing region of Brazil; however, rain was recently forecast for the area. The harvest is in January.
— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.