(Resource News International) –– Manitoba’s soybean crops are in good shape, but are behind in their development and will need the killing frost to hold off until the end of September, according to a soybean merchant in the province’s south-central region.
“Things look OK,” said Mark Jorgensen of Delmar Commodities, a grain handling firm that processes soybeans near Winkler, Man.
“Obviously we’re a little behind, so providing we don’t get a killing frost through most of September we should make out with a pretty decent crop,” he said, adding, “that’s a pretty big ‘if.’”
Statistics Canada’s first production estimates of the year, released Aug. 21, pegged Manitoba’s soybean crop at 321,100 tonnes, which would be up from 242,200 in 2008-09. Harvested area was forecast at 435,000 acres, up from 275,000 the previous year.
“I think there is still potential for a good crop, but we have a ways to go yet,” said Jorgensen. Crops could still use some more heat and will need to do some more maturing before harvest, he said.
From a pricing standpoint, Jorgensen said that nobody has been doing much selling of new crop for the last month, “even though prices are very good.”
Delmar currently had a bid of $9.52 per bushel for new-crop soybeans, he said, adding that producers had ample opportunities to price at $10 per bushel, and large sales were already on the books.
Now that many producers have a certain percentage of their soybeans sold, they’re waiting on the actual crop to make any more commitments.
Manitoba soybean prices will track what happens in the Chicago Board of Trade’s (CBOT) futures market, and with expectations for a large U.S. crop, Jorgensen thought soybean prices could fall down quickly.
However, he added, demand projections out of the U.S. are also strong, so even small swings in U.S. yields could lead to very tight stocks, which would keep values supported.