ICE weekly outlook: Canola stronger at midweek

ICE March 2020 canola with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — Canola was “well supported” at midweek, bolstered by strength in comparable vegetable oils and relative weakness in the Canadian dollar.

Chicago soy was underpinned by strong export demand and the expectation that the U.S. and China will sign Phase One of their trade deal next week. However, with heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East, financial markets were exercising some caution.

The Canadian dollar dropped by about a quarter of a cent to hit 76.75 U.S. cents on Wednesday afternoon, which was also supportive of canola values.

“The market is behaving in a relatively firm fashion of late,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

However, canola has only gained about $4 over the past three weeks, which “isn’t exactly a sparkling performance from a speculator’s point of view.”

For that reason, canola prices are expected to trend steadily higher. Some producers have held off on selling until prices increase. Chart projections peg canola prices to test ranges between $490 and $495.

“We just need something to spark a bit of a breakout,” said Ball.

“A rally of $10 or $15 might not be all that hard.”

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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