ICE weekly outlook: Canola corrects off lows, more losses possible

ICE January 2019 canola, with Bollinger (20,2) bands. (Barchart)

CNS Canada — ICE Futures canola contracts fell to their lowest levels in 15 months during the week ended Wednesday, but found some support to the downside as traders reacted to activity in the Canadian dollar and Chicago soyoil.

“Canola seems to be getting some short covering after a long break (lower),” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg. However, he added, canola won’t do much on its own, but rather needs to find direction from outside markets.

Some of that direction could come from upcoming G20 meetings in Argentina Nov. 30 to Dec. 1, where the U.S. and China are expected to talk about trade.

However, even if a deal is struck to end the trade war between the two countries, Ball cautioned U.S. soybeans were unlikely to get back their entire market share.

While there are some ideas that the lows may be in for the time being in canola, Ball also said he “still wouldn’t be surprised if canola went to $450.”

The January contract settled well above that level Wednesday at $479 per tonne, but Ball said even $450 was looking relatively high compared to other oilseeds.

Statistics Canada on Dec. 6 will publish its updated production numbers, which traders will also be watching when they’re released.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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