Global wheat production to decrease, USDA says

The USDA building in Washington, D.C. (Art Wager/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — In the latest supply and demand report from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global wheat forecast was revised downward due to difficult weather conditions.

USDA has now projected 765.53 million tonnes of wheat to be produced in 2019-20, according to the department’s world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE), released Thursday. That’s down from the 768.1 million tonnes forecast in the August WASDE.

In comparison, the International Grains Council (IGC) projected global wheat production at 764 million tonnes in its Aug. 29 report. That was up one million tonnes from the IGC’s July report.

In USDA’s September report, the department reported its estimate for global beginning stocks for the 2019-20 crop year increased by 0.06 per cent to 277.24 million tonnes. Ending stocks increased 0.04 per cent from August to September at 286.51 million tonnes.

Hot and dry conditions resulted in many of USDA’s revisions.

That included the projection for Germany at 23.35 million, which USDA lowered by 600,000 tonnes. However, despite those same conditions, the French wheat crop increased by 1.5 million tonnes and is expected to reach 40.2 million.

The European Union remains the world’s top producing region with 151 million tonnes, up one million from the August WASDE.

Of note, if French and German production was accounted for separately, rather than the EU as one entity, the countries would rank fifth and ninth respectively in the world.

USDA lowered its estimates for Russia and Ukraine by 500,000 tonnes each from the August WASDE, also due to hot and dry weather. Russia is expected to produce 72.5 million tonnes and Ukraine 28.7 million.

Such conditions took a greater toll on Australia’s wheat crop, with an estimated decrease of two million tonnes, with 19 million now expected.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

Table: World’s top 10 wheat producing countries, in millions of tonnes. Sources: USDA, IGC.

Entity September.   . August.   . 2018-19.   . 2017-18
2019 2019
World (USDA).   . 765.53 768.07 730.84 762.26
World (IGC) n/a 763.00 733.00 761.00
E.U. 151.00 150.00 136.86 151.13
China 132.00 132.00 131.43 134.33
India 102.19 101.20 99.87 98.51
Russia 72.50 73.00 71.69 85.17
U.S. 53.89 53.89 51.29 47.38
Canada 33.30 33.30 32.20 30.38
Ukraine 28.70 29.20 25.06 26.98
Pakistan 25.60 25.60 25.10 26.60
Argentina 20.50 20.50 19.50 18.50
Australia 19.00 21.00 17.30 20.94
Turkey 19.00 19.00 19.00 21.00

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