Corn, soy chop around waiting for harvest to conclude

CNS Canada — ICE soybeans finished higher for the week ended Wednesday on volatile trade as demand for supplies outweighed concerns over the growing potential of the crop in South America.

Traders will likely square positions and look for bargains during the next week of trading on the corn and soybean market, according to a market-watcher.

“I’m advising anyone in the next five to seven days that they sell rallies here because there’s going to be profit-taking and evening up,” said Sean Lusk, the director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading in Chicago.

Choppy trading in the soybean market should especially be at play as investors try to get a better sense of how much crop is left to harvest, Lusk said, adding large commercial players were definitely looking for beans right now and are “very long” on soymeal.

The weekly USDA crop progress report on Monday (Dec. 1) would answer some of those questions, he said.

“We should know on Monday, if beans are at 99 per cent (harvested).”

Export inspections for soybeans have been strong the last few weeks, said Lusk, adding export numbers for next week would also be crucial.

“Usually the first few days of the month is when profit-taking will take place,” said Lusk, adding meal values in China were getting hit hard.

ICE corn values settled higher for the week ended Nov. 26 due to slow farmer selling as harvest slowly winds to a close.

According to Lusk, demand for corn has been somewhat sluggish as large commercial funds have looked like “bears.”

USDA is set to release its world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Dec. 10, which would give investors a better sense of direction going forward, said Lusk.

“I just think demand perspective for corn is weak… but we don’t know our final numbers yet,” said Lusk.

However, he believes that if the weather stays the same, corn should be near the one% (left to harvest) mark next week.

“Drier, warmer air is moving into the western corn belt, that should help them wrap it up which will put heat on the market,” said Lusk.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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