Charts point toward pullback for oats

Chicago March 2019 oats with 20- and 50-day moving averages. (Barchart)

CNS Canada — If you’re looking to sell some of your oats, now is the time to do so, according to Ed Baldwin.

“We contacted our clients and said ‘Hey, if you got oats you want to sell, price them today,’” Baldwin, manager of advisory services and grain marketing for AgChieve Grain Marketing Experts in Winnipeg, said Tuesday in an interview.

Cash prices in Manitoba are as high as $4 per bushel — and are up to $3.50 per bushel in Saskatchewan and Alberta, according to Baldwin.

He added that a pullback to $3.50 per bushel, such as for Manitoba oats, is more likely than the price pushing toward $5.

“These are good levels. We’re chartists. We’re looking at the chart (and) we are getting what we consider a reversing signal — this market wants to pull back,” Baldwin said.

Several reasons point toward a pullback, he said.

“Looking at today’s market reaction, I would place it on a general weakness in the marketplace — a lot of nervousness about United States/China trade,” he said, adding the Chinese economy isn’t looking so good at this time.

Baldwin also cited growing tensions between Canada and China, political volatility in the U.S. and, simply, the time of year.

“It’s the traditional winter doldrums, where the markets are idle. They’re looking for some kind of spark,” he said.

By the end of winter the market, including oats, could reassert itself, he said, as western Canadian producers get ready for seeding.

— Glen Hallick writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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