CBOT weekly outlook: WASDE yields mixed results

CBOT December 2019 wheat with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — World agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) have turned out largely bullish for wheat values, bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).

The report, released Tuesday, lowered U.S. wheat stocks by 40 million bushels to total 947 million tonnes, the lowest level in five years. That, coupled with higher export numbers, was supportive of wheat values.

U.S. wheat exports were raised by 25 million bushels, to total 975 million bushels year-to-date. That caught some market participants off guard; the U.S. has recently lost some major wheat tenders over the past month.

“We’re losing to competitors in the Black Sea and France,” said Terry Reilly, a grains analyst with Futures International.

Reilly was also surprised that wheat production numbers in Argentina were pegged at 19 million tonnes. Given the country’s dry growing conditions, trade expectations for the country’s wheat production were below 18 million.

The WASDE report was bearish for corn values, as global ending stocks were up by 4.6 million tonnes. That’s mainly due to increases in Chinese corn production, as was reported by China’s National Bureau of Statistics earlier this week.

The report didn’t make any changes to the U.S. soybean balance sheet, though Reilly noted some “short-term profit-taking” following the report.

China’s soybean production was increased by one million tonnes to total 18.1 million tonnes on the year.

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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