CBOT weekly outlook: Soybeans see higher-value trading range

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada — Corn and soybean contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade are both rangebound, but beans are above the major moving averages, according to one analyst, as traders watch outside markets and weather for indications on where to move next.

“I’m friendly, but I’m not looking for any explosions,” said Scott Capinegro, senior broker for HighGround Trading Group.

He said traders in corn and soybean markets are keeping an eye on stock markets, the dollar index, crude oil futures, and economic news from China.

In corn, Capinegro said the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s recent bundle of data limited losses on the week.

“But we’ve just got a lot of corn that farmers still need to move. The report stopped the bleeding a little bit,” he said.

Corn is rangebound, and the only triggers to the upside would be indications of increased demand, and a worsening weather situation in South America, said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading.

“You know a lot of producers are going to wait for higher prices here,” he said.

Since last week, corn has gained 4.75 cents per bushel in the March contract, and 4.5 cents per bushel in the May contract (all figures US$).

Soybeans are also moving in a trading range — but one with higher values, said Capinegro.

That range could go as high as $8.92 in the March contract, he said. On Wednesday, March soybeans closed at $8.80 in the March contract.

“It’s just that the boat is so loaded with shorts,” he said.

The shorts have the risk in the soybean market, Lusk said, adding that he also thinks soybeans are moving above average levels.

“Shorts have the profit, they could take it.”

Since last week soybeans have gained 15.25 cents per bushel in the March contract and 14.25 cents per bushel in the May contract.

Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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