CBOT weekly outlook: Soybeans excite ahead of holiday

CNS Canada — While corn futures sat quietly this week on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), soybean futures were another story ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving weekend.

On Tuesday, “there was a lot of talk that Argentina was going to have some very good rains; the (soybean) market was understanding of that,” said Steve Georgy, president of Allendale Inc.

However, the forecasts shifted, and persistent weather concerns in the major soybean-producing country supported U.S. futures. The January soybean contract rose 22 cents over the week, to $9.9725 Wednesday (all figures US$).

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“Beans are up. January beans, if we can get above $10, you’ll probably end up seeing more short-covering or find some more strength out of the bean market above $10,” Georgy said.

Corn, on the other hand, has been sitting quiet all week. The December corn contract rose seven cents over the week to $3.4525.

“As of right now it is very quiet, very light volume. It seems like a lot of traders have gone home already for the Thanksgiving day holiday,” he said.

Friday is a short trading day, with markets opening at 8:30 CT and closing at noon. According to Georgy, when looking at the contracts and how soon they expire, traders will probably “gravitate” the December contract Friday up to around the $3.50 area or down to the $3.40 level.

Friday won’t have as much of an effect on the soybean market, though. However, the market usually rallies between Nov. 15 and Dec. 28 and during this time, Georgy said, if corn and wheat end up pulling back, then the soybean market will settle down.

“Overall I think the beans have got some strength ahead. Friday it may be kind of a quiet day for beans. It might be all in wheat and all in corn,” he said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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