CBOT weekly outlook: Soybeans, corn watching trade talks

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Movement in grain and oilseed futures at the Chicago Board of Trade remains highly dependent on developments in trade talks between the U.S. and China.

China-U.S. trade negotiations have provided some sporadic support for the futures, but there have yet to be any concrete developments.

While confirmation of an actual deal would change the outlook, “right now everybody’s tired of (U.S. President Donald Trump) crying wolf,” said analyst Wayne Palmer of Exceed Grain Marketing.

While there is hope that a deal will be reached, that won’t happen until late March or April. At that time, Palmer expected the carryout situation for soybeans will be so burdensome to limit any potential move higher.

“Wheat is hitting new contract lows almost every day. Corn is at a contract low. Beans are close to contract lows. Funds are short everything in sight and just adding to their short positions,” Palmer said.

“And unless there’s some kind of concrete change in the balance sheet, we have a lot of grain that’s not moving and we’re running out of time for the old crop to be moved.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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